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Jacksonville State vs. Kennesaw StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalWalens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium
Jacksonville State3–2
27–26Final
Kennesaw State1–3
Score by period
Team1234T
JXST0147627
KENN3137326

Top model pick, graded

Won

Kennesaw State Owls +7.5 67¢

Why House Rules likes it: Kennesaw +7.5 wins on a 7-point loss; adjacent Kennesaw +7 returns stake via push.

House RulesDown 3% this season · 1401 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 11-12 on this game · −18% return

  1. Jacksonville State Gamecocks to win3 models agree
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsDrift, Heater Two-Hour +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Drift
    • Jacksonville State: +0.2458 offensive EPA/play, 52.4% success, 14.2% explosive rate; Kennesaw: +0.0404, 47.1%, 9.8%.
    • Jacksonville State averages +5.6 points per game margin in five contests; Kennesaw averages -0.75 in four.
    • Most likely loss: Kennesaw State's defense, allowing +0.0399 EPA/play versus Jacksonville State's +0.1367, keeps the Owls in position to win at home.
    Heater Two-Hour
    • Recent buys: $995 at 58¢ (8:17 AM), $587 at 58¢ (11:43 AM), and $398 at 58¢ (10:16 AM) PDT.
    • The signal has produced no favorable price movement, so any lag may already be exhausted.
    Long Way Home
    • Jacksonville State leads Kennesaw State in 2026 off EPA/play (0.245 vs 0.040), success rate (52.4% vs 47.4%), and explosive rate (14.2% vs 9.8%).
    • Jacksonville State's recent scoring margin is +5.6 over its last five; Kennesaw State's is -0.8 over its last four.
    • Jacksonville State's defense has allowed 0.137 EPA/play versus 0.040 for Kennesaw State; the matchup is not one-sided on every metric.
  2. Jacksonville State Gamecocks spread −32 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, ProphetX CFB Lines
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Jacksonville State averages +0.2455 offensive EPA/play, 52.4% success and 14.2% explosive rate.
    • Kennesaw State averages +0.0404 offensive EPA/play, 47.1% success and 9.8% explosive rate.
    • Most likely loss: Kennesaw State's stronger defense keeps Jacksonville State inside three at home.
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Model mean margin is Jacksonville State +4.0; fair -3 cover probability 53.5%.
    • Jacksonville State averages +0.245 EPA/play offense and 2.54 points/drive versus Kennesaw State's +0.021 and 1.85.
    • Most likely loss: Kennesaw State's home field and defensive edge hold Jacksonville State to a one- or two-point win.
  3. Kennesaw State Owls +7.5FavoriteHigh conviction
    +49%Won

    Taken at 67¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kennesaw +7.5 wins on a 7-point loss; adjacent Kennesaw +7 returns stake via push.
    • Six-season NCAAF margin history is not matchup-specific; Jacksonville State/Kennesaw distributions may differ.
  4. Jacksonville State Gamecocks spread over 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday RungUp 71% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • JSU's 2026 profile is +5.6 average margin, .2455 offensive EPA/play and .524 success rate; Kennesaw State is -0.75 margin with .0209 offensive EPA/play.
    • Model center is approximately JSU -4.5 after current-season efficiency and key-number reweighting, only 1.5 points from the sharp +3 anchor.
    • The team-efficiency sample is only five JSU games and four Kennesaw State games.
  5. Deondre Johnson under 3.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −180 on FanDuel

    Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Targets averaged 17.1% of Jacksonville State's pass attempts across 5 games; share CV is 21.8%.
    • Target share fell 17.4% to 14.8% first-to-last while yards per target rose 6.5 to 14.25: clear usage-production divergence.
    • Receptions were 2, 2, 4, 3, 3; my model is 3.1, below the 3.5 market.
    • Most likely loss: Jacksonville State trails in a competitive game, Johnson returns to six-plus targets, and converts four receptions.
  6. Total Points under 49
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jacksonville State's offense is strong (+0.2458 EPA/play), but Kennesaw State's lower-tempo profile and 0.0623 defensive EPA allowed limit possessions.
    • Jacksonville State's defense allows +0.1367 EPA/play, creating a path for Kennesaw State to exceed its baseline.
Show all 20 picks
  1. Jacksonville State Gamecocks spread −2
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game 2026 sample: Jacksonville State averaged +0.2455 offensive EPA/play and 52.4% success; Kennesaw State averaged +0.0399 defensive EPA allowed.
    • Five-vs-four sample: Jacksonville State's +0.2455 offensive EPA/play is materially stronger than Kennesaw State's +0.0209 offense; the Gamecocks also lead explosive rate 14.2% to 9.8%.
    • Latest 2026 PFF team card favors Jacksonville State overall 83.8-77.2, defense 79.6-72.6, and coverage 89.9-71.7; sportsbook reference clustered near Jacksonville State -2.5 to -3.
    • The efficiency gap is a five-game versus four-game sample and includes opponent-quality noise.
  2. Jacksonville State Gamecocks 1st-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: Jacksonville State averages +0.2455 offensive EPA/play versus Kennesaw State's +0.0209.
    • Jacksonville State's recent success rate is 52.4% versus Kennesaw State's 47.1%.
    • Recent points per drive favor Jacksonville State 2.54 to 1.85, supporting the stronger opening script.
    • Jacksonville State's defense allowed +0.1364 EPA/play recently, leaving Kennesaw State a path to an early lead.
  3. Jacksonville State Gamecocks spread +4Favorite
    +43%Won

    Taken at 70¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jacksonville State has 3 book_levels versus 2; all three measures point to thin-at-quote, deep-behind-it demand.
    • ProphetX quotes 70.15 cents (-235 American); backing Jacksonville State +4, which is thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Venue self-reference can be stale, canceled, or concentrated; depth_stake is not executable at 70.15 cents.
  4. over 48 total points
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3-3, but the two core measures agree; backing over, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: both sides have 3 levels.
  5. Kennesaw State Owls under 23.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability: 65% under 23.5; Kalshi NO costs 51¢, implying 51% and a +14-point edge.
    • Kennesaw State averages 21.75 points through four games; three of four outputs were 17 or fewer.
    • Kennesaw State's current offense is only +0.021 EPA/play with a 47.1% success rate.
    • Jacksonville State's defense has allowed 21.8 points per game and a positive 0.136 EPA allowed per play.
  6. Over 39 total pointsFavorite
    +35%Won

    Taken at 74¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Over 39 wins at 40+, pushes at exactly 39; Over 39.5 loses at 39.
    • 74 of 10,371 completed CFB games ended on exactly 39 points: 0.714% historical push probability.
    • ProphetX quotes Over 39 and Over 39.5 identically at 74.03¢ (-285).
    • The 0.714% exact-total rate is unconditional historical data and may not fit this live game.
  7. Kennesaw State +3.5
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jacksonville State's offense leads at +0.2448 EPA/play, but its defense allows +0.1364; Kennesaw State's offense is +0.0404 with a much stronger +0.0399 defensive EPA profile.
    • Kennesaw State's 19.42-second pace versus Jacksonville State's 10.91 supports a lower-possession, closer-margin game; PFF overall grades are 77.2 versus 83.8.
    • Most likely loss: Jacksonville State converts its +0.2448 offensive EPA into a margin of 4 or more.
  8. Game total under 47.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 47/47.5 rung pair implies only a 2.05-point probability gap: under 47 +126 (44.25¢) versus under 47.5 +116 (46.30¢).
    • Jacksonville State averages 0.2455 offensive EPA/play and Kennesaw State 0.0209; Kennesaw's slower 19.53 seconds/play pace supports a clustered, not runaway, scoring profile.
    • Jacksonville State's defense allows 0.1364 EPA/play, creating a path for Kennesaw State to contribute enough points.
  9. Total Points over 47
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX's same-event team totals are Jacksonville State 26.5 and Kennesaw State 23.5: a 50-point sum, three above the full-game rung.
    • Current 2026 sample: Jacksonville State has .142 explosive rate and .524 success rate across 5 games; Kennesaw State has .098 and .471 across 4.
    • Both quarterbacks clear the personnel gate from recent box data, Caden Creel and Rickie Collins led their teams' latest pass attempts, and live previews identify both.
    • Most likely loss: Jacksonville State stalls in the red zone or Kennesaw State cannot sustain drives, leaving the game below 47.
  10. Kennesaw State Owls spread +3
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kennesaw’s 2026 defense allowed 0.0399 EPA/play versus Jacksonville State’s 0.1364 allowed; both teams clear the 3-game full-tier sample gate.
    • CBS Sports’ 10:01 AM ET preview names expected quarterbacks Rickie Collins and Caden Creel; no adverse cfb_injury_x_signal report returned for this game.
    • Single-leg quarter-Kelly is 4.3% before the desk’s 0.5% bankroll cap; recorded stake is 0.5 units.
    • The predictor’s +0.942 margin is modest; a near-pick’em game can still lose by four or more.
  11. Jacksonville State Gamecocks first-half spread over 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • QB gate cleared: Caden Creel and Rickie Collins led attempts across their last three games; official previews identify both as expected starters.
    • Projection: 1,761-game 2024-25 CFB margin sample has SD 14.92; square-root half scaling gives 1H SD 10.55 and model mean JSU +1.9.
    • Current data: JSU posts +0.245 EPA/play, .142 explosive rate and 2.54 points/drive versus KSU at +0.040, .098 and 1.85.
    • Small sample: only five JSU and four KSU 2026 games, with substantial opponent-adjustment uncertainty.
  12. Kennesaw State −20.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 7¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB Moonshot SinglesUp 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kennesaw State has scored 87 and allowed 90 across four current-season games; a 20.5-point victory is a remote tail outcome.
    • The contract is open and tradable on Polymarket US; this is the highest-return usable +200-or-longer contract found after venue validation.
    • The official starting quarterbacks and final lineups were not confirmed; a major late scratch could materially change the tail probability.
  13. Game over 24.5 first-half total points
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Observed 2026 first-half drives: Jacksonville State 5.4, Kennesaw State 6.25; 11.65 combined, not a flat half.
    • Kennesaw State's official game page omits a starter; a live beat report expects Rickie Collins, and his last four games confirm the plurality.
  14. Jacksonville State Gamecocks −3
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 JSU averaged +0.294 offensive EPA/play across four games; Kennesaw State averaged +0.021 across four.
    • JSU scored 49, 27, 31 and 23 points; Kennesaw State scored 47, 17, 9 and 14, with three games at 17 or fewer.
    • Pinnacle posted JSU -3 at -106; ProphetX offers the same number at +105, or 48.78¢.
    • Most likely loss: Kennesaw State keeps the game within three points or wins outright; the whole-number three also creates push risk.

Questions

Who won Jacksonville State vs. Kennesaw State?

The Jacksonville State won 27–26 on Wednesday, Oct 7, 2026.

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