Alabama A&M vs. Jackson StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalLadd-Peebles Stadium
Alabama A&M4-1
28–31Final
Jackson State4-0
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALA | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| JACK | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 31 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 49.5 58¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-2 on this game · −10% return
- Game total over 49.5+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Alabama A&M Bulldogs +9.5+88%Won
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (B): clears the 70-point fire threshold.
- Blended 2026 scoring projection: Jackson State 29.1, Alabama A&M 25.5; projected margin 3.7 versus the 9.5-point market.
- The 5.8-point projection gap is a 61% discrepancy versus the posted spread; estimated cover probability is 60% versus FanDuel's 53.3% implied.
- Jackson State is 4-0 with a +26.5 recent scoring margin, while Alabama A&M is 4-1 with a +19.2 margin.
- Alabama A&M Bulldogs to win−100%Lost
Taken at 25¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Alabama A&M's current-season defensive EPA allowed is -0.11/play versus Jackson State's -0.08, offsetting Jackson State's offensive EPA edge.
- AAMU is 4-1 with a +19.2 recent scoring margin; Jackson State is 4-0 at +26.5, making the dog live despite the favorite's stronger résumé.
- Most likely loss: Jackson State's +0.22 offensive EPA/play converts into an early lead that AAMU cannot chase.
- Game total under 49.5−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX history shows the under moving from 47.85¢ at 12:35Z to 42.02¢ at 20:39Z, drifting away from the confirmed weather signal.
- The market has a plausible public-over bias after Jackson State's 35-17 and Alabama A&M's 40-21 wins; weather creates the specific under mechanism.
- Jackson State's official preview highlights a high-powered offense and the latest published projection was 41-30, which clears this total.
Questions
Who won Alabama A&M vs. Jackson State?
Jackson State won 31-28 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.