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Alabama vs. Mississippi StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalDavis Wade Stadium
Alabama4–0
56–23Final
Mississippi State4–0
Score by period
Team1234T
ALA1414141456
MSST7106023

Top model pick, graded

Won

Alabama −7.5 40¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 12-8 on this game · +21% return

  1. Alabama Crimson Tide to winFavorite3 models agree
    +51%Won

    Taken at −196 on FanDuel

    3 modelsD1 Winner, Picks With Pink Grading System +1
    Why 3 models like it
    D1 Winner
    • Efficiency family: Alabama's PFF overall grade is 95.7 versus Mississippi State's 91.3.
    • Passing-grade gap is 16.2 points, while the market makes Alabama a -5.5 road favorite.
    • Mississippi State's four-game offensive EPA is 0.392 versus Alabama's 0.403, with nearly identical success rates.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP Composite Grade: 76/100 (Grade B), clearing the 70-point bar.
    • Predictor projects Alabama at 74.3% to win; FanDuel -200 implies 66.7%, a 7.6-point projection edge.
    • Mississippi State is also 4-0 this season and averages a +22.0 scoring margin.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • cfb_predictor observed 6:05 AM gives Alabama a 74.3% win projection and a 9.049-point edge.
    • SHARP REFERENCE only: Pinnacle was -203 on Alabama; the ProphetX price is 11 cents better, not the primary edge.
    • Likeliest loss path: Mississippi State's home field and stronger defensive EPA allowed (.028 versus Alabama's .041) produce an outright upset.
  2. Marquis Johnson over 2.5 receptionsHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Target share was 11.9%, 13.6%, 14.8%, 13.2% across four active games: mean 13.4%, CV about 9%.
    • Receiving yards fell 99 to 8 to 29 to 60; yards per target fell 19.8 to 2.7 before only partial recovery while share stayed stable.
    • Mississippi State attempted 42, 22, 27 and 38 passes; it averaged 73.5 plays and 24.1 seconds per play.
    • The full tier still contains only four current-season games; one game-plan change can move target share materially.
  3. Alabama −7.5
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  4. Mississippi State spread +5.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted current EPA is nearly level: Mississippi State offense +0.391/play versus Alabama +0.375; defensive allowances are similarly close.
    • Keelon Russell and Kamario Taylor are the expected starters, cross-checked against 27 and 38 pass attempts in their latest games.
    • Most likely loss: Alabama's explosive passing edge converts a close game into a six-point-or-more win.
  5. Over 61.5 total
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Possession count converges: Alabama averages 70.5 plays and Mississippi State 73.5; combined pace implies about 22.5 drives.
    • Four current games per team; Alabama and Mississippi State each have blowout-inflated scoring and efficiency samples.
  6. Alabama first-half spread over 4.5
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2,449 CFB games (2024, 26) produce signed-margin SD 22.98; sqrt-half scaling gives 16.25 first-half SD.
    • Pinnacle full-game line is Alabama -5.5; half-game mean is +2.75 Alabama margin.
    • Normal mean +2.75, SD 16.25 gives 45.7% at the exact 4.5 rung.
    • Only four current-season games per team; the normal approximation may miss college football’s discrete scoring tails.
Show all 18 picks
  1. Mississippi State Bulldogs +5.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 season EPA/play is nearly even: Alabama +0.393 versus Mississippi State +0.392.
    • Mississippi State’s defense has the slight efficiency edge: +0.028 EPA allowed versus Alabama’s +0.044.
    • Both teams have seven days’ rest after September 26; no rest disadvantage.
    • Alabama’s schedule quality may be stronger than Mississippi State’s; raw four-game efficiency is not fully opponent-adjusted.
  2. Game total over 61.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four-game 2026 sample: Alabama averages 0.403 EPA/play and .543 success rate against Mississippi State's +0.029 defensive EPA allowed.
    • Mississippi State averages 0.393 EPA/play and .547 success against Alabama's +0.043 defensive EPA allowed; both offenses also clear .177 explosive rate.
    • Most likely loss: Alabama's slower pace controls and Mississippi State's defense turns red-zone drives into field goals or punts.
  3. Alabama Crimson Tide spread −8.5
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3-3; the two core measures agree, while levels do not corroborate.
    • Book-level count does not favor Alabama: 3 levels each, so only two of three measures support the read.
  4. Game total under 62.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 62.5 wins at exactly 62; adjacent under 62 pushes at exactly 62.
    • ProphetX prices under 62.5 at 49.50¢ versus under 62 at 48.31¢; the half-point costs only 1.19¢ more while capturing the 62 outcome as a win.
    • The 2.372% figure is an all-CFB historical frequency, not a matchup-specific projection.
  5. Alabama Crimson Tide spread −7
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Alabama -7 pushes on an exact 7-point Alabama win; Alabama -7.5 loses on that result.
    • ProphetX prices Alabama -7 at +134 (42.74¢) versus adjacent Alabama -7.5 at +148 (40.32¢): only 2.42 price points apart.
    • point Alabama win is a push, not a win; the adjacent -7.5 contract loses instead.
  6. Game total over 62.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • model projects 66.1 combined points, 3.6 above ProphetX 62.5.
    • Both offenses average roughly 0.40 EPA/play: Alabama 0.402, Mississippi State 0.392.
    • Mississippi State plays fast at 24.1 seconds per snap; both teams exceed 17.7% explosive-play rate.
    • ESPN projects both quarterbacks; an unexpected late scratch would materially weaken the offensive projection.
  7. Alabama Crimson Tide spread −6.5
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Key-number density: exact 7-point margins occurred 859 of 10,967 games (7.8%); the -6.5/-7 price gap implies only 3.6 points.
    • The 7-point mass is materially under-reflected between Alabama -6.5 at 46.3¢ and Alabama -7 at 42.7¢.
    • Alabama's PFF card leads Mississippi State overall 95.7-91.3, offense 86.6-78.2, and passing 90.5-74.3; ProphetX ML is Alabama -192.
    • Mississippi State's 2026 offense has stronger recent EPA/play (0.393) than Alabama (0.403 is close), plus a 17.2% explosive-play rate.
  8. Game total under 61.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX's live team-total rungs are Alabama 32.5 plus Mississippi State 27.5, summing to 60 points, 1.5 below this game rung.
    • 2026 sample is four games per team: Alabama averages 29.70 seconds/play and Mississippi State 24.08, a mixed possession profile rather than two uniformly fast offenses.
    • Both starting QBs are supported by last-game passing leaders and a current preview cross-check: Keelon Russell and Kamario Taylor.
    • Alabama and Mississippi State each exceed .540 offensive success rate and .178 explosive rate in the four-game 2026 sample.
  9. Mississippi State Bulldogs spread +5.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • four-game FBS sample: Mississippi State has the better defensive EPA allowed, 0.029 vs Alabama's 0.043 per play, plus home field and 5.5 points.
    • Mississippi State leads slightly in success rate (.5467 vs .5431) and explosive rate (.1849 vs .1779), supporting a close-game lens.
    • The sample is only four games and is not opponent-adjusted; Alabama's offense still leads EPA/play, .403 to .393.
  10. Mississippi State Bulldogs spread +6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four-game FBS sample: Alabama offense averages +0.402 EPA/play against Mississippi State's +0.041 defensive EPA/play allowed; matchup gap +0.361.
    • Mississippi State offense averages +0.392 EPA/play against Alabama's +0.041 defensive EPA/play allowed; matchup gap +0.351, nearly equal to Alabama's side.
    • Success rates are essentially even: Alabama 54.3%, Mississippi State 54.3%; explosive rates favor Mississippi State 18.5% to 17.8%.
    • Most likely loss: Alabama's modest PFF edge and road-to-home talent gap turns its efficiency advantage into a margin beyond 6.5.
  11. Alabama Crimson Tide spread −5.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Alabama's current 4-0 scoring-margin form is +27.8 per game, compared with Mississippi State's +22.0.
    • Alabama posted offensive EPA/play of .498 and .543 in its latest two games; Mississippi State was at .156 and .285 in the corresponding span.
    • The market holds the spread at 5.5 despite Alabama's stronger recent explosiveness and success-rate profile.
    • Most likely loss: Alabama wins but by five points or fewer, including a late Mississippi State score.
  12. Game total under 62
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kickoff forecast: 60% rain, 97% overall showers/thunderstorms, 7-mph wind; lightning delay possible.
    • ProphetX total held 61.5 while over probability rose 49.75¢ to 50.98¢; weather was not priced downward.
    • Pinnacle remained 61.5 under -105; ProphetX offers an extra half-point at nearly the same price.
    • Most likely loss: both offenses continue their 2026 pace and reach 63 or more points.

Questions

Who won Alabama vs. Mississippi State?

The Alabama won 56–23 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.

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