Alabama State vs. Bethune-CookmanFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalDaytona Stadium

Alabama State3–1

10–16Final

Bethune-Cookman2–2

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
ALA	0	3	0	7	10
BETH	6	0	7	3	16

Top model pick, graded

Won

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats to win 32¢

Why CFB Heater likes it: The contract is accepting orders and quoted at 31.5¢ for Bethune-Cookman on Polymarket US.

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 4-3 on this game · +25% return

Alabama State Hornets spread −7.52 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, Long Way Home
Why 2 models like it
Key Number CFB
- Efficiency gap: Alabama State's recent offense EPA/play is +0.1167 versus Bethune-Cookman's -0.1927; Bethune's defense allowed +0.3875 EPA/play in the recent window.
- 2026 PFF card favors Alabama State 79.1-75.3 overall and 81.9-77.3 on defense; Pinnacle's reference also has Alabama State -7.5.
- Most likely loss: Alabama State wins by 1-7 after a Bethune-Cookman backdoor touchdown, exactly the key-number danger.
Long Way Home
- Alabama State is 3-1 with a +14.0 recent scoring margin versus Bethune-Cookman's 2-2 and +1.8, a raw +12.2-point form gap.
- Pinnacle's same-line reference is Alabama State -7.5 at -116; ProphetX is offering materially more favorable plus money on the same number.
- Alabama State QB Andrew Body's availability remains unclear in current reports; a backup or limited Body could erase the form edge.
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats to winLong shot
+213%Won
Taken at 32¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- The contract is accepting orders and quoted at 31.5¢ for Bethune-Cookman on Polymarket US.
- Bethune-Cookman is 2-2 with a +1.8 recent scoring margin versus Alabama State's 3-1 and +14.0; the football data itself points against this side.
Game total under 52.5
+88%Won
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Estimated fair total 49.5, creating roughly three points of cushion versus 52.5.
- Bethune-Cookman offense: -0.221 EPA/play and 1.75 points per drive through two games.
- Alabama State defense allows -0.057 EPA/play; its last-two-game opponent scoring average was only 24.5.
- Bethune-Cookman's defense allows +0.325 EPA/play, so Alabama State could score efficiently despite the backup quarterback.
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats +7.5
+85%Won
Taken at −118 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PWP Composite Grade 72/100: Bethune-Cookman +7.5 clears the B-grade threshold.
- Model margin makes Alabama State roughly 3 points better after home-field adjustment, creating about 4.5 points of cushion.
- Bethune-Cookman covered 4 of its last 6 documented DK spreads; Alabama State covered 2 of its last 3.
- The model projection is built from only four 2026 games per team; opponent-quality adjustment is uncertain.
Bethune-Cookman +7.5
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Bethune-Cookman +7.5 wins when Alabama State wins by exactly 7; Bethune-Cookman +7 would push.
- exact home-minus-away margin -7 occurred 390 of 10,967 completed NCAAF games, or 3.556%.
- The 3.556% figure is broad historical NCAAF frequency, not a matchup-specific projection.
2-leg parlayLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at +13200
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Alabama State, PROJECTION, NO REFERENCE: 2.6154 points/drive and -0.2354 defensive EPA allowed last game versus BCU's 1.75 and +0.1416.
- Alabama State is live but trails 3-0 with 7:24 left in the first quarter; BCU's opening drive reached a field goal.

Questions

Who won Alabama State vs. Bethune-Cookman?

The Bethune-Cookman won 16–10 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.