Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. SouthernFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalA.W. Mumford Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARKA | 7 | 10 | 17 | 7 | 41 |
| SOUT | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Top model pick, graded
WonArkansas-Pine Bluff to win 43¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-4 on this game · −30% return
- Game total over 56.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- Projected total 68.4, 11.9 points or 21.1% above the 56.5 line.
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff cleared 56.5 in 3 of its last 4 totals: 76, 104, 68, 50.
- Cross-team recent sample is only 9 games; the combined over rate is 5/9 (55.6%), below the preferred 60% consistency mark.
Long Way Home- INTERNAL COHERENCE; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE, ProphetX team-total rungs are 30.5 and 27.5, summing to 58.0.
- The main game total is 56.5, 1.5 points below that related-market sum.
- Most likely loss: Southern wins while Arkansas-Pine Bluff stalls, leaving the game at 56 points or fewer.
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff to win+133%Won
Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Southern Jaguars spread −4−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Southern -4 pushes on an exact four-point win; Southern -4.5 loses on that outcome.
- 335 of 10,371 FBS/NCAAF finals from 2014-25 had an exact four-point margin: 3.230%.
- ProphetX quotes Southern -4 at +125 versus Southern -4.5 at +126; implied prices differ by only 0.19 percentage points.
- The 3.230% exact-four frequency is a broad historical NCAAF sample, not matchup-specific.
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions spread +3+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The +2.5 and +3 UAPB rungs are both -113; the +3 push protection is priced free.
- QB gate cleared: Garrison Davis and Christian Johnson lead their latest pass-attempt boxes; fresh web checks identify both as their teams' quarterbacks.
- Most likely loss: Southern wins by 4 or more; the sharp reference board has Southern -4, a one-point disadvantage to this ticket.
- Southern Jaguars to win−100%Lost
Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Edge class: INTERNAL COHERENCE; reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE.
- Southern ML -138 is 57.98¢, while the stricter Southern -1.5 is -154 at 60.63¢.
- UAPB is 2-1 in its logged current-season games; Southern is 2-3 over its recent five-game form.
Questions
Who won Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Southern?
The Arkansas-Pine Bluff won 41–10 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.