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Auburn vs. TennesseeFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalNeyland Stadium
Auburn3–1
14–24Final
Tennessee3–1
Score by period
Team1234T
AUB070714
TENN098724

Top model pick, graded

Won

Keshaun Singleton over 4.5 receptions −142

Why Touch Share Saturday likes it: Last 3 qualifying games: 25 targets on 95 Auburn pass attempts, 26.3% target share; share CV 16.3%. Yards per target fell 9.89 to 6.00 to 9.00 to 5.43 across four games while the role held.

Touch Share SaturdayDown 18% this season · 61 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-6 on this game · +24% return

  1. Tennessee Volunteers spread −63 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, ProphetX Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • 2026 four-game offense averages are Tennessee +0.291 EPA/play and 53.6% success versus Auburn +0.098 and 45.4%.
    • Matchup read versus current defensive allowances: Tennessee's offense is +0.205 EPA/play over Auburn's average allowed; Auburn is +0.087 over Tennessee's.
    • Most likely loss: Auburn's veteran Byrum Brown creates enough explosive offense; Auburn's current explosive-play rate is 14.6% versus Tennessee's 13.8%.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Tennessee's FBS-only 2026 slice: +0.240 offensive EPA/play and 0.503 success rate across 3 games; Auburn: +0.098 and 0.454 across 4.
    • Live Oct. 3 preview lists expected starters Faizon Brandon and Byrum Brown; no QB status conflict appears in the 11:00 AM official game-day report.
    • Most likely loss path: Auburn keeps the game within one score, including a Tennessee win by 6 or less.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are Tennessee 3 versus Auburn 3; two of three measures align with ample raw stake.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: 3-3; both ratios are modest, so the signal is limited.
  2. Tennessee Volunteers spread −6.52 models agree
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    2 modelsKickoff Ledger, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Kickoff Ledger
    • Tennessee leads Auburn in 2026 efficiency: +0.291 vs +0.098 offensive EPA/play, .536 vs .454 success rate.
    • Tennessee has the better defensive EPA profile (.010 allowed vs Auburn .086); home field adds to an estimated fair line of Tennessee -8.0.
    • The final official starting-quarterback confirmation is still softer than a published game-day lineup; a scratch would invalidate the quarterback-dependent edge.
    Long Way Home
    • Tennessee leads Auburn 0.291 to 0.098 in 2026 offensive EPA/play through four games.
    • Tennessee's success rate is 53.6% versus Auburn's 45.4%; its defensive EPA allowed is also better, 0.010 to 0.082.
    • The latest game was poor for both offenses: Tennessee posted -0.088 offensive EPA/play and Auburn -0.051.
  3. Keshaun Singleton over 4.5 receptionsHigh conviction
    +70%Won

    Taken at −142 on FanDuel

    Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last 3 qualifying games: 25 targets on 95 Auburn pass attempts, 26.3% target share; share CV 16.3%. Yards per target fell 9.89 to 6.00 to 9.00 to 5.43 across four games while the role held.
    • Auburn averaged 73.3 offensive plays and 31.5 pass attempts through four games; its last-four pass rates were 53.9%, 41.5%, 63.1%, 48.3%.
    • Most likely loss: Tennessee leads by multiple scores, Auburn loses fourth-quarter possessions, and Singleton finishes with four receptions despite normal routes.
  4. Auburn Tigers spread +6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  5. Auburn Tigers to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
  6. Over 55 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 73.5 average offensive plays per team projects roughly 10.4 possessions each; the possession-count signal supports the Over.
    • Three early games had margins of at least 33; blowout EPA/PPD contamination is discounted but remains material.
Show all 16 picks
  1. Tennessee Volunteers over 30.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +0.2095 EPA/play adjusted delta: Tennessee offense .2914 minus Auburn defensive allowance .0819, four games each.
    • Both offensive clocks support possessions: Tennessee 26.66 and Auburn 21.67 seconds per play.
    • Auburn's defense has allowed 7 of 12 red-zone trips to become touchdowns, so its finishing resistance is real.
  2. Tennessee Volunteers to winFavorite
    +47%Won

    Taken at 68¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4-game 2026 sample has Tennessee at +0.291 offensive EPA/play and 53.6% success, versus Auburn at +0.098 and 45.4%.
    • Matchup split: Tennessee offense (+0.291 EPA/play) faces Auburn defense allowing +0.0819; Auburn offense (+0.0979) faces Tennessee allowing only +0.0105.
    • PFF 2026 card favors Tennessee: 90.7 overall and 87.5 defense versus Auburn's 81.0 overall and 71.1 defense; coverage is 89.7 versus 52.5.
    • Auburn's 21.67-second pace and +11.7% PROE can create extra possessions despite Tennessee's slower 26.66-second pace.
  3. Tennessee Volunteers −6.5
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade 70/100 (B); model margin 7.681 is 1.181 points above the 6.5 line.
    • Tennessee’s recent offense EPA/play is +0.291 versus Auburn’s +0.145; team grades favor Tennessee 90.7 to 81.0.
    • The spread moved from Tennessee -7 to -6.5, signaling market resistance to the model side.
  4. Tennessee Volunteers spread −7
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX: -7 is 46.95¢ (+113) versus -7.5 at 43.67¢ (+129), only 3.28¢ apart.
    • League-wide 2014-25 mass is not Auburn-Tennessee-specific; this is not a team projection.
  5. Auburn Tigers spread +7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • That undercharged 7-point mass favors buying the dog at +7 rather than Auburn +6; the rung is one point from ProphetX's main -6 spread.
    • Most likely loss: Tennessee converts its current efficiency edge into an 8-plus-point win; its 2026 offense EPA/play is .291 versus Auburn's .098.
  6. Game total under 55
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 sample: Auburn averages 21.55 seconds/play; Tennessee averages 26.66, a materially slower possession profile.
    • Tennessee’s defense carries an 87.5 PFF team grade and 89.7 coverage grade; Auburn offense grades 73.2.
    • Personnel gate cleared: Byrum Brown led Auburn’s last passing row; Faizon Brandon led Tennessee’s and was reported active.
    • Auburn’s 21.55-second pace, +11.8% PROE and 14.6% explosive rate can create fast possessions.
  7. Tennessee Volunteers first-half spread NO 6.5
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • [PROJECTION] 2,449-game CFB sample (2024-26) gives SD_full 15.78; sqrt-half scaling gives SD_1H 11.16, not 7.89.
    • [PROJECTION] 2026 Tennessee averages 3.16 points/drive and +0.291 EPA/play versus Auburn's 2.31 and +0.098; blended first-half mean is Tennessee +3.6.
    • [DERIVED REFERENCE] At the exact 6.5 rung, my mean+SD distribution gives Tennessee over 6.5 at 39.7%, hence NO at 60.3%.
    • Only four 2026 games per team; Tennessee's schedule includes Furman and Kennesaw State, so efficiency inputs are opponent-sensitive.
  8. Faizon Brandon under 207.5 passing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 61% model probability versus 53.3% raw implied at -114: 7.7-point value margin.
    • Brandon stayed under 207.5 passing yards in 3 of 4 2026 appearances: 145, 178, 148, 226.
    • The sportsbook board prices Brandon for this game; the current report says he is expected to play.
    • Auburn has allowed 221.5 net passing yards per game, a matchup that is not favorable to an under.
  9. Game total over 53.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current-season offense EPA/play is +0.291 for Tennessee and +0.098 for Auburn through four games.
    • Auburn averages 21.67 seconds per play; Tennessee's offense has produced 3.028 points per drive this season.
    • Historical CFB totals show 54 points 205 times and 55 points 414 times versus 53 points 145 times; over 53.5 captures the denser adjacent mass.
    • Most likely loss: Tennessee controls the game defensively while Auburn stalls, keeping the total at 53 or lower.
  10. 2-leg parlayFavorite
    +1%Won

    Taken at +1

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Actual leg product is 1.7958; fill/product ratio is 97.9%, clearing the 95% independent-combination bar.
    • The ticket loses if either favorite fails; the likeliest failure is SMU's early 6-3 lead evaporating in the live game.

Questions

Who won Auburn vs. Tennessee?

The Tennessee won 24–14 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.

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