Get app

BYU vs. TCUFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAmon G. Carter Stadium
BYU3–0
17–10Final
TCU2–2
Score by period
Team1234T
BYU073717
TCU070310

Top model pick, graded

Won

BYU Cougars spread −6.5 47¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 15-6 on this game · +33% return

  1. Game total under 483 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsResting Money, Tempo Board +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Two measures agree: under is thin at the quote but deep behind it; book_levels are 3 for under and 3 for over, neutral rather than contradictory.
    • RECOMMENDED band: raw thin-side availability exceeds the few-hundred-dollar reliability rule. Backing UNDER 48, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate the direction: 3 levels each, so the signal rests on availability/depth asymmetry only.
    Tempo Board
    • 2026 samples are BYU 3 games and TCU 4; average pace is 32.60 and 29.72 seconds per play.
    • TCU's defense allowed -0.1294 EPA/play versus BYU's -0.0156; the stronger TCU defense supports a sub-48 scoring path.
    Long Way Home
    • BYU has produced 0.411 offensive EPA/play and a .5766 success rate, but TCU’s defense is at -0.1294 EPA/play.
    • TCU’s offense is only 0.1094 EPA/play with a .1274 explosive-play rate; current reporting cites 2.11 rushing yards per carry versus Power-Four opponents.
    • Most likely loss: BYU’s .1915 offensive explosive-play rate produces enough deep scores to clear 48.
  2. BYU Cougars spread −5.52 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Kickoff Ledger
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Efficiency gap favors BYU: current BYU offense is +0.411 EPA/play against TCU's -0.129 defensive EPA allowed; TCU offense is +0.109 against BYU's -0.016.
    • Most likely loss: TCU's home offense rebounds from its 13-point UCF showing and keeps BYU from creating separation.
    Kickoff Ledger
    • BYU leads TCU in 2026 offensive EPA/play, 0.411 to 0.109, and success rate, 57.7% to 50.2%.
    • TCU allows -0.129 defensive EPA/play versus BYU's -0.016; BYU's efficiency profile is materially stronger.
    • TCU's home field and BYU's small three-game efficiency sample can erase the estimated margin.
  3. BYU Cougars to winFavorite2 models agree
    +44%Won

    Taken at −225 on DraftKings

    2 modelsD1 Winner, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    D1 Winner
    • Efficiency: BYU averages +0.176 offensive EPA/play and 50.3% success rate; TCU is +0.106 and 47.7%.
    • QB/injury family: Bear Bachmeier is 71.0% complete with 6 TD and 1 INT; TCU lists 7 official outs, including two OL and one CB.
    • TCU's current defense is better by EPA allowed: -0.0194/play versus BYU's +0.0566.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • BYU leads TCU in 2026 offense: +0.4112 vs +0.1094 EPA/play, .5766 vs .5020 success rate, and .1915 vs .1274 explosive rate.
    • Pinnacle lists BYU -217; reference only, while ProphetX offers the better BYU price.
    • TCU's defense has the stronger EPA profile: -.1294 allowed per play versus BYU's -.0156.
  4. BYU Cougars spread −62 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • BYU offense: +0.411 EPA/play, 57.7% success, 19.2% explosive rate across 3 2026 games.
    • TCU offense: +0.109 EPA/play, 50.2% success, 12.7% explosive rate across 4 games; BYU defense allowed -0.016 EPA/play.
    • TCU's defense allowed -0.129 EPA/play across four games, a meaningful counter to BYU's offense.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • BYU averages +0.411 offensive EPA/play versus TCU's +0.109 (+0.302).
    • BYU leads the 2026 sample by 0.075 in success rate (.577 vs .502) and 0.064 in explosive rate (.192 vs .127).
    • TCU's defense has the better current EPA-allowed mark: -.129 versus BYU's -.016.
  5. BYU Cougars spread −6.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  6. Over 48 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Possession model projects about 11 drives per side and 50.2 points; BYU/TCU current pace averages 32.6/30.1 seconds per play.
    • Explosive-rate support: BYU 19.1% and TCU 12.7% over their current-season advanced rows; coverage is full.
    • Most likely loss: TCU's defense suppresses BYU's explosive offense and the game stays in the mid-20s.
Show all 17 picks
  1. BYU Cougars 1st-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi

    Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • full-game Pinnacle favorite was scaled to a first-half margin distribution, with a raised 5.0-point edge bar.
    • Three-way Kalshi mid-prices .585/.335/.075 sum to .995; unit sanity check confirms fractions, making BYU's devigged baseline 58.8%.
    • BYU's FBS first-half margins were +24 and -3; TCU's were -2, +7, and -4, supporting BYU's stronger early-game profile.
    • The first-half sample is tiny: two BYU FBS games and three TCU FBS games; outlier halves drive the estimate.
  2. BYU Cougars over 27.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +0.541 opponent-adjusted EPA/play: BYU offense .4112 minus TCU defensive allowance -.1294 across 3 and 4 current-season games.
    • Both clocks support possessions: BYU 32.60 and TCU 29.72 seconds per play versus the 25.98 FBS median.
    • BYU OL Andrew Gentry and RB Sione Moa are officially out; that can reduce finishing quality despite Bear Bachmeier being the expected starter.
  3. Game total under 48.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • BYU's three-game offense averages +0.411 EPA/play, 57.7% success and 19.2% explosive rate; TCU's four-game defense allows -0.129 EPA/play.
    • TCU's four-game offense averages +0.109 EPA/play and 50.2% success, including -0.082 EPA/play and 13 points against UCF.
    • Most likely loss: BYU's 19.2% explosive rate and +0.411 EPA/play produce a 30-point outing while TCU's pass-heavy +12.4% PROE adds enough for an over.
  4. TCU +7.5 spread (wins if BYU wins by exactly 7; exact-7 margin 7.840%)
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • TCU +7.5 wins, rather than pushes, when BYU wins by exactly 7; TCU +7 pushes on that same outcome.
    • 25 sample: 401 of 5,115 games finished with an exact 7-point margin, 7.840%.
    • ProphetX prices TCU +7.5 at 61.24¢ versus TCU +7 at 58.33¢: only a 2.91¢ premium for converting that push outcome to a win.
    • The 7.840% figure is unconditional historical NCAAF mass, not a BYU, TCU matchup-specific estimate.
  5. Game total under 51
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Key-number density: the under 50.5-to-under 51 step is only 1.88 probability points, versus 3.235% exact-51 totals in the CFB histogram.
    • TCU's 2026 defense allows -0.1294 EPA/play; its 2026 pace is 29.96 seconds per play, and the latest 10-game pace is 27.67.
    • 2026 PFF defense grades favor TCU 87.9 to BYU 83.0; Pinnacle's main total is 49, supporting the lower-total direction.
    • Most likely loss: BYU's +0.4112 offensive EPA/play and 93.4 PFF offense grade create enough explosive scoring to reach 51.
  6. TCU Horned Frogs spread +7
    0%Push

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's main number is TCU +6; ProphetX offers the key-number buffer at +7.
    • CFB margin histogram: exact 7-point margins occurred in 821 of 10,370 games (7.916%), versus 4.252% at 10.
    • BYU's current offense leads TCU 0.4112 to 0.1094 EPA/play, but TCU's defense leads -0.1294 to BYU's -0.0156, supporting a competitive margin.
    • BYU is 3-0 with a 93.4 PFF offense grade; its explosive offense can turn a close game into a margin loss.
  7. BYU Cougars first-half spread NO 6.5
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle full-game BYU -6.0; half-margin mean scales to BYU +3.0.
    • N(3.0, 10.44) makes BYU >6.5 36.7%; NO fair probability is 63.3%.
    • DERIVED REFERENCE, not an independent same-rung quote; this is LEAN, not RECOMMENDED.
  8. BYU Cougars −5.5
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    RnjDown 65% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Market spread spans BYU -5.5 to -6.5 across books, meeting the 1.0-point variance gate.
    • BYU averaged +0.364 offensive EPA/play over its last four; TCU averaged +0.109.
    • BYU's four-game net EPA edge over TCU is approximately +0.119 EPA/play, above the +0.08 gate.
    • The spread discrepancy is exactly the 1.0-point minimum, not the 1.5-point high-conviction threshold.
  9. Game first-half total over 23.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Blended 2026 pace is 31.16 seconds/play; 66.75 combined half plays and 11.25 first-half drives are projected.
    • Only four TCU and three BYU games inform the rates; BYU's 32.60 seconds/play is pulled slower by its 38.19-second Colorado State game.
  10. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +13200

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Alabama State, PROJECTION, NO REFERENCE: 2.6154 points/drive and -0.2354 defensive EPA allowed last game versus BCU's 1.75 and +0.1416.
    • Alabama State is live but trails 3-0 with 7:24 left in the first quarter; BCU's opening drive reached a field goal.
  11. TCU Horned Frogs spread +3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live CFB data: TCU success rate 38.5% versus BYU 33.3%; both teams show 0.0% explosive rate, supporting a close-game spread position.
    • Pinnacle's live reference is also TCU +3.5 at -114; the venue's fresh TCU-side offer is the additional structural signal.
    • Directional coherence: TCU +3.5 fits a low-scoring, competitive script while preserving the existing BYU moneyline position's narrow-win path.
    • Most likely loss: BYU's superior field position or a late explosive play turns a close game into a four-point-plus margin.

Questions

Who won BYU vs. TCU?

The BYU won 17–10 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.