Chattanooga vs. East Tennessee StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalWilliam B. Greene Jr. Stadium
Chattanooga3–2
3–14Final
East Tennessee State3–2
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHAT | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| EAST | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-2 on this game · −100% return
- Chattanooga Mocs spread +3.5 (East Tennessee State win by exactly 3 is a win; no push)−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 443 of 4,547 NCAAF finals were exact 3-point margins in 2021, 25: 9.743% empirical push mass.
- ProphetX prices +3.5 at 53.92¢ (-117) versus +3 at 51.69¢ (-107): only a 10-point American price gap.
- The 9.743% figure is league-wide, not matchup-specific; this is not a projection claim.
- Chattanooga Mocs spread +3−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION edge; SHARP REFERENCE: 2026 L5 scoring-margin context favors Chattanooga (+9.4) over ETSU (+5.0).
- Chattanooga's latest profile: -0.0908 defensive EPA/play and a 27-8 win; ETSU's latest defense was +0.1129 EPA/play.
- A one-score game is the preferred projection; +3 captures the key margin at the main number.
- Most likely loss: ETSU's 58-point, 4.83-points-per-drive latest game carries over and the home side wins by 4+.
Questions
Who won Chattanooga vs. East Tennessee State?
The East Tennessee State won 14–3 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.