Chicago State vs. Tarleton StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalTarleton Memorial Stadium
Chicago State1–4
21–56Final
Tarleton State4–0
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHIC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
| TARL | 0 | 21 | 14 | 21 | 56 |
Top model pick, graded
WonChicago State Cougars +50.5 −113
Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: PWP projection: Tarleton by 32, leaving 18.5 points of cushion versus the +50.5 spread; 36.6% line cushion.
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-4 on this game · −32% return
- Game total under 64.5−100%Lost
Taken at −108 on DraftKings
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Tarleton's charted offense: +0.0158 EPA/play and 44.1% success; Chicago State: -0.3047 EPA/play and 32.3% success.
- Tarleton's charted defense allowed -0.1409 EPA/play, while Chicago State allowed +0.2915; the matchup supports Tarleton control rather than a track meet.
- Market family agrees: Pinnacle's sharper board made 60.5 the total with over -160, while DraftKings still offered 64.5 under -108.
- Chicago State has scored 20 or more in four of five games, and Tarleton has allowed 20 or more in three of four.
- Chicago State Cougars +50.5+88%Won
Taken at −113 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP projection: Tarleton by 32, leaving 18.5 points of cushion versus the +50.5 spread; 36.6% line cushion.
- Chicago covered this number in all five 2026 games; its losses were by 23, 27, 35, and 16 points.
- Tarleton is 4-0 but its 2026 wins were by 25, 3, 7, and 19 points, no comparable blowout.
- Five-game sample only; Chicago has not faced this exact Tarleton matchup.
- Game total under 62.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Tarleton averages 35.25 points and 7.8 yards per play; Chicago State’s offense is -0.3047 EPA/play with a 32.3% success rate.
- Both teams last played September 26, giving each seven days’ rest; Tarleton QB Kaden Anderson and Chicago State QB Ashton Pannell are confirmed/current starters.
- North wind around 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph and pre-kickoff shower risk modestly suppress explosive-play conditions.
- Anderson has 1,200 passing yards and eight touchdowns without a turnover through four games, creating real blowout-and-backdoor-over risk.
- Chicago State Cougars spread +49.5+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Chicago State’s 2026 game margins average -6.0 over five; Tarleton’s last four average +13.5, a 19.5-point form gap versus a 49.5-point spread.
- Tarleton’s completed wins were by 19, 7, 3, and 25; the current data does not support pricing a routine 50-point margin.
- Pinnacle also posts Chicago State +49.5 (-107); ProphetX improves that same side to +118.
- Tarleton can exploit Chicago State’s poor defense; Chicago allowed 43, 47, 42, and 44 points in four losses.
- Chicago State Cougars to win−100%Lost
Taken at 5¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Live score is Chicago State 7, Tarleton State 0 at 15:00 of the second quarter.
- My rough live estimate is approximately 7% for Chicago State, above the 5% break-even price; this is an early-game projection, not a payout-based longshot.
- The held spread and total positions are not repeated; moneyline is the only open market used on this game.
- Most likely loss: Tarleton's large pregame class advantage overwhelms Chicago State's early 7-0 lead and produces a routine comeback.
- Game total under 60.5−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Tarleton posted only 20 points, 0.0158 offensive EPA/play and 0.4407 success rate in its lone 2026 game.
- Chicago State's offense was -0.3047 EPA/play, 0.3231 success rate and 284 total yards, limiting sustained scoring.
- Pinnacle also made 60.5 the main total and priced the under +120; ProphetX offers the longer +138.
- Tarleton may exploit Chicago State's defense, which allowed 43 points and 0.2808 defensive EPA/play in its opener.
Questions
Who won Chicago State vs. Tarleton State?
The Tarleton State won 56–21 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.