Colgate vs. HarvardFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalHarvard Stadium

Colgate4–1

17–20Final

Harvard2–0

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
COLG	0	7	0	10	17
HARV	7	0	0	13	20

Top model pick, graded

Won

Colgate Raiders spread +3.5 52¢

Why Long Way Home likes it: Colgate's 2026 defense has -0.123 average EPA allowed per play across two games, better than Harvard's -0.067.

Models went 2-0 on this game · +103% return

Colgate Raiders spread +3.5
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Colgate's 2026 defense has -0.123 average EPA allowed per play across two games, better than Harvard's -0.067.
- Colgate is 4-1 in the current results queried; its only loss was a three-point road defeat at Central Michigan.
- The +3.5 is one point more favorable than FanDuel's captured Harvard -4.5 main spread; -108 is the live ProphetX price.
- Only two Colgate and one Harvard current-season advanced-game rows make the projection thin.
Game total under 39.5
+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PROJECTION edge; NO REFERENCE: five of seven 2026 combined scores for these teams finished below 39.5 (Colgate 38/23/27; Harvard 38/24).
- Colgate's two current advanced-game rows average -0.048 offensive EPA/play; Harvard's current offense is near neutral at 0.001 EPA/play.
- This is a low-scoring directional read: the recent 24-10 Harvard-Brown result and 20-7 Colgate-Cornell result support the under shape.
- The 49-point Colgate-Villanova and 45-point Colgate-Holy Cross games show the offense can clear this number.

The Harvard won 20–17 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.