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Georgia Southern vs. Coastal CarolinaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalBrooks Stadium (SC)
Georgia Southern1–3
31–24Final
Coastal Carolina1–3
Score by period
Team1234T
GASO10701431
CCU0107724

Top model pick, graded

Won

Georgia Southern Eagles wins 1st Half 49¢

Why Kickoff Script likes it: Four-game averages favor the Eagles: 74.5 plays, 20.7 seconds/play, 21.4% PROE, 46.1% success, 2.35 points/drive.

Kickoff ScriptDown 7% this season · 363 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-8 on this game · −8% return

  1. Game total over 532 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsResting Money, Tempo Board
    Why 2 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are tied 3-3, so the core two-measure pairing carries the read; backing Over 53, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: Over 3 versus Under 3; the signal is limited to two measures and is exploratory in mechanism despite clearing the publish band.
    Tempo Board
    • Expected starters Max Johnson and Deuce Bailey were named in Coastal's official game preview; no same-day X injury signal was found.
    • Most likely loss: Coastal's slower 25.65-second pace controls the game and Georgia Southern cannot sustain enough drives.
  2. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers spread +3.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsKey Number CFB, House Rules
    Why 2 models like it
    Key Number CFB
    • Pinnacle's live main number is Georgia Southern -1.5, corroborating a narrow-margin setup rather than a Coastal blowout.
    • Most likely loss: Georgia Southern's offense converts its EPA edge into a win by 4 or more.
    House Rules
    • +3.5 wins on an exact 3-point loss; +3 pushes instead.
    • ProphetX quotes +3.5 at 55.95¢ (-127) versus +3 at 52.38¢ (-110): only a 3.57¢ gap.
    • Pooled CFB frequency is not team-specific; current rosters and matchup can alter exact-3 frequency.
  3. Game total under 53.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    2 modelsKickoff Ledger, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Kickoff Ledger
    • Season scoring baseline is 48.3 combined points: Georgia Southern 23.3 scored/23.8 allowed, Coastal 25.0/23.5.
    • Efficiency matchup is modest, not explosive: Georgia Southern offense +0.084 EPA/play and Coastal +0.074; Coastal defense allowed +0.039 EPA/play.
    • Georgia Southern's defense allowed 42 points in its latest game and has a season +0.069 defensive EPA allowed per play.
    Long Way Home
    • Georgia Southern's four 2026 game totals average 47.0; Coastal Carolina's average 48.5, both below 53.5.
    • Combined 2026 scoring efficiency is modest: 2.35 Georgia Southern points per drive and 2.00 Coastal Carolina.
    • Georgia Southern's latest game totaled 70, and its defense allowed 42 points; another explosive outlier beats this ticket.
  4. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers spread +2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's exact 2.5 rung is Coastal +102 / Georgia Southern -115; devigged Coastal cover probability is 48.1%.
    • Efficiency matchup gives Coastal a +0.010 EPA/play edge after opposing offense and defense averages; home field supports the dog, and +2.5 stays below key number 3.
    • Most likely loss: Georgia Southern's 2.35 points per drive versus Coastal's 2.00 produces a 3-plus-point road win.
  5. Georgia Southern Eagles wins 1st Half
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four-game averages favor the Eagles: 74.5 plays, 20.7 seconds/play, 21.4% PROE, 46.1% success, 2.35 points/drive.
    • EPA matchup edge: Georgia Southern offense +0.084/play versus Coastal defense +0.039 allowed; Coastal's corresponding differential is about -0.004.
    • QB gate cleared: official previews identify Max Johnson and Deuce Bailey as the expected starters; last games had 38 and 34 pass attempts.
    • Coastal is at home and owns the higher recent explosive rate, 14.4% versus Georgia Southern's 11.4%.
  6. Georgia Southern Eagles spread −3.5
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Show all 12 picks
  1. Game total under 54
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 54 pushes at exactly 54; adjacent under 54.5 wins that exact total.
    • A total of 55 or more loses; this is not a projection-model play.
  2. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers first-half spread NO 2.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2024-25 sample: 1,761 FBS regular-season finals; empirical absolute-margin SD 14.92, with largest masses at 3, 7, 10, 17, and 21.
    • Own 2026 scoring inputs imply Coastal +0.50 first half; Pinnacle's full-game Coastal +1.5 implies -0.75, so the conservative midpoint is -0.13.
    • Warehouse starts and current official game-note search support Max Johnson and Deuce Bailey; a late quarterback change would damage the projection.
  3. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers spread +2
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 four-game sample: Coastal's defense allowed +0.0387 EPA/play versus Georgia Southern's +0.0795; lower is better.
    • Coastal's current PFF card is 78.8 overall and 74.5 defense, versus Georgia Southern at 71.1 overall and 73.3 defense.
    • Georgia Southern leads offensive EPA/success, 0.0841/46.1% to Coastal's 0.0753/43.1%, but its defensive weakness offsets that edge at home.
    • LEAN cap: both teams are Group-of-Five Sun Belt programs, and the current sample is only four games per team.
  4. Georgia Southern Eagles spread −2.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, own cover estimate is approximately 54%, above ProphetX's 51.92¢ price.
    • Georgia Southern's 2026 profile leads Coastal in success rate (.461 vs .435) and points per drive (2.35 vs 2.00).
    • Latest form favors the Eagles: .2064 offensive EPA/play and 3.111 points/drive versus Coastal's -.0503 and 1.546.
    • Most likely loss: Coastal wins outright or Georgia Southern wins by only one or two points in a one-score game.
  5. Coastal Carolina +2
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • four-game defensive blend gives Coastal 0.0387 defensive EPA/play versus Georgia Southern's 0.0689 allowed.
    • Coastal's explosive rate is 0.144 versus 0.114; its defense offsets Georgia Southern's success-rate and PROE advantages.
    • Pinnacle's nearby main number is Coastal +2.5, while ProphetX offers +2 at plus money.
    • Georgia Southern leads success rate 0.4606 to 0.4313 and PROE 0.2142 to 0.1265.
  6. Georgia Southern Eagles to win
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four-game profile favors Georgia Southern offensively: 0.084 EPA/play and 46.4% success versus Coastal's 0.074 and 43.5%.
    • Official game notes list Max Johnson as Georgia Southern's starter and Deuce Bailey first on Coastal's QB depth chart, with no availability note.
    • Coastal's defense has the better four-game EPA profile, allowing 0.0387 EPA/play versus Georgia Southern's 0.0689.

Questions

Who won Georgia Southern vs. Coastal Carolina?

The Georgia Southern won 31–24 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.

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