Holy Cross vs. William & MaryFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalWalter J. Zable Stadium
Holy Cross1–4
41–14Final
William & Mary2–3
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOLY | 10 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 41 |
| WILL | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 51.5 53¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-4 on this game · −24% return
- Game total under 52−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsHouse Rules, ProphetX Pairs +1Why 3 models like it
House Rules- under 52 returns stake at exactly 52; under 51.5 loses at exactly 52.
- Historical NCAAF exact-total-52 frequency is 2.497% (259 games, 2014, 25 regular/postseason).
- The 2.497% figure is leaguewide, not matchup-specific, and does not estimate this game's scoring distribution.
ProphetX Pairs- William & Mary’s 2026 offense is -0.285 EPA/play, 29.6% success and 7.4% explosive through one game.
- Holy Cross is also below zero offensively at -0.051 EPA/play with a 40.6% success rate through two games.
- Partial CFB tier: William & Mary has only one 2026 game and Holy Cross two, below the three-game full-tier threshold.
Long Way Home- INTERNAL COHERENCE; OneLink not applicable to a single-leg ticket.
- ProphetX under 51.5 is -113 (53.05¢), but its wider under 52 is +115 (46.51¢): the venue ladder is internally crossed.
- The apparent ladder inversion may be stale or quickly corrected before a fill.
- Game total over 51.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Game total under 50.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fair total 47.5, roughly 3 points below the 50.5 market.
- William & Mary's latest offense posted -0.285 EPA/play, 29.6% success rate and 7 points against Duke.
- William & Mary operates slowly at 33.6 seconds per play; same-day NWS forecast calls for 60% showers and 9-mph north wind.
- Both teams' latest games cleared 65 points, so the recent scoring profile is materially higher than my fair total.
- Holy Cross Crusaders to win+170%Won
Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- my conservative Holy Cross win estimate is 41% versus 36.5% implied by ProphetX +174.
- 2026 advanced data: Holy Cross has -0.051 offensive EPA/play versus William & Mary's -0.285.
- Defensive EPA allowed is +0.254 for Holy Cross versus +0.598 for William & Mary; lower is better.
- Most likely loss: William & Mary's home edge produces an early lead while Holy Cross returns to its 7-10 point offensive form.
Questions
Who won Holy Cross vs. William & Mary?
The Holy Cross won 41–14 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.