Howard vs. HamptonFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalAudi Field
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOWA | 7 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| HAMP | 3 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 50.5 −112
Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: Combined 2026 offense is -0.357 EPA/play for both teams; Howard success rate 25.4%, Hampton 33.5%.
Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-4 on this game · −38% return
- Game total under 50.5+89%Won
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
2 modelsKickoff Ledger, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Kickoff Ledger- Combined 2026 offense is -0.357 EPA/play for both teams; Howard success rate 25.4%, Hampton 33.5%.
- Howard starter Ja’Shawn Scroggins and Hampton starter Tre’von Taylor are confirmed by Howard’s Oct. 2 official preview.
- Both defenses have allowed roughly 40.5 points per game, creating a backdoor shootout risk.
Long Way Home- INTERNAL COHERENCE; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: ProphetX prices Howard under 28.5 at 75.61c and Hampton under 19.5 at 75.00c, but game under 50.5 is only 54.34c.
- The 50.5 game line sits above Howard-Richmond's 49 total and Hampton-Bryant's 34 total, providing some margin without requiring an extreme number.
- Most likely loss: short fields or defensive scores turn the inefficient offenses into a 28-24-type game.
- Hampton Pirates spread +7.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, ProphetX PairsWhy 2 models like it
Key Number CFB- Key-number density favors the extra half-point: ProphetX's +6.5 is +122 while +7.5 is +100, undercompensating for the 7-point cluster.
- QB gate passed: official previews name Howard's Ja'Shawn Scroggins and Hampton's Tre'Von Taylor; each led his team's latest passing box score in attempts.
- Most likely loss: Howard wins by 8-10, clearing the 7.5 but staying near the 9.5 reference.
ProphetX Pairs- Hampton's 2026 profile is stronger: +0.335 offensive success rate vs Howard's +0.254, and +0.303 defensive EPA allowed vs +0.464.
- Official Oct. 2 preview names Hampton's Tre'von Taylor and Howard's Ja'Shawn Scroggins as expected starters; no unresolved QB signal remained.
- Only two 2026 games appear in the CFB efficiency sample; this is Partial/Tier 2, not a full three-game FBS profile.
- Game total over 48.5−100%Lost
Taken at −113 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP Grade 72/100: qualifying B-level game-total edge.
- Projected total 54.7, 6.2 points above 48.5 (12.8% projection edge).
- Both offenses grade poorly by EPA; sustained drives could fail despite permissive recent defenses.
- Hampton Pirates to win−100%Lost
Taken at 28¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Hampton's current efficiency profile is stronger: defensive EPA allowed 0.303 vs Howard 0.422, success rate 0.335 vs 0.254, and points per drive 0.71 vs 0.29 across two games.
- Official Howard preview confirms Ja'Shaun Scroggins starts; his latest line was 5/14 for 38 yards with 2 INT, while Hampton's Tre'Von Taylor has 612 yards and 3 TD.
- The market appears to lean heavily on Howard's 1-3 record and Hampton's 1-4 record despite nearly identical negative offensive EPA (-0.357 vs -0.358).
- Most likely loss: Howard's favorite profile turns its line advantage into a multi-score win before Hampton's defensive edge matters.
Questions
Who won Howard vs. Hampton?
The Howard won 27–13 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.