Incarnate Word vs. Stephen F. AustinFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalHomer Bryce Stadium
Incarnate Word2–2
26–28Final
Stephen F. Austin5–0
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INCA | 3 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 26 |
| STEP | 14 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 56.5 56¢
Why Key Number CFB likes it: UIW's latest two-game chart shows -0.0974 offensive EPA/play and 1.357 points/drive; SFA's season profile is 5-0 with 65 points allowed.
Key Number CFBDown 7% this season · 668 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-3 on this game · −27% return
- Game total under 56.5+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Key Number CFB- UIW's latest two-game chart shows -0.0974 offensive EPA/play and 1.357 points/drive; SFA's season profile is 5-0 with 65 points allowed.
- The quarterback gate is met: official UIW preview treats Emmett Brown as the starter, while SFA's game center lists Gavin Rutherford; both led their latest pass-attempt tables.
- SFA's latest charted game produced 0.6782 offensive EPA/play and 4.667 points/drive, so the favorite can clear the total largely alone.
Long Way Home- Incarnate Word's latest offense posted -0.0665 EPA/play, 38.1% success and 1.214 points per drive against Texas State.
- SFA's recent 2026 game totals were 41, 33, 51, 65 and 77; the two highest came in major blowouts with opponent scoring support.
- Most likely loss: SFA's explosive offense turns the mismatch into a 40-plus-point home score before UIW contributes enough for an over.
- Game total over 57.5−100%Lost
Taken at −107 on DraftKings
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Nine 2026 finals average 60.1 combined points; my fair total is 61.0 versus 57.5.
- SFA averages 40.4 points scored and 13.0 allowed; UIW averages 36.0 scored and 34.5 allowed.
- September 26 EPA: SFA offense was +0.654/play; UIW defense allowed +0.552/play.
- Two blowouts inflate the raw scoring average, especially 76-14 and 63-14; opponent adjustment is thin.
- Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks −17.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Composite estimate: 58.0% cover probability versus ProphetX's 52.83¢ price, a 5.2-point edge.
- SFA posted +0.033 offensive EPA/play and -0.015 defensive EPA allowed across two charted 2026 games.
- UIW posted -0.097 offensive EPA/play and +0.407 defensive EPA allowed in the same charted sample.
- Only two 2026 games have opponent-adjusted EPA charted for each team; shrinkage uncertainty is substantial.
- Stephen F. Austin spread −17.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- SFA leads 40.4-13.0 in scoring profile, a +27.4 margin versus the 17.5 spread.
- SFA is 5-0 and 2-0, ranked fifth nationally in both scoring offense and defense.
- UIW carries a minus-nine turnover margin, tied for the worst in the FCS, creating extra-possession downside.
- Most likely loss: UIW's eighth-ranked FCS passing offense creates a backdoor score and keeps the margin below 18.
Questions
Who won Incarnate Word vs. Stephen F. Austin?
The Stephen F. Austin won 28–26 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.