Indiana State vs. South DakotaFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalThe DakotaDome
Indiana State2–3
14–44Final
South Dakota3–2
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IU | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| SOUT | 14 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 44 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSouth Dakota Coyotes spread −17.5 52¢
Why Long Way Home likes it: Projection, NO REFERENCE: South Dakota posted .1568 offensive EPA/play versus Indiana State's .0895 in 2026 data.
Long Way HomeDown 4% this season · 3702 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-3 on this game · −52% return
- Game total over 60.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
2 modelsKickoff Ledger, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Kickoff Ledger- Five-game schedule totals averaged 68.2 for South Dakota and 66.0 for Indiana State.
- Two-game live EPA sample shows productive offenses (.123 and .164 EPA/play) paired with permissive defenses (.373 and .232 allowed).
- The advanced-efficiency sample covers only two 2026 games for each team.
Long Way Home- Indiana State's last five game totals average 63.2 points; South Dakota's average 68.2.
- The simple combined recent-total projection is 65.7, 5.2 points above ProphetX's 60.5.
- South Dakota could lead comfortably, then shorten the game and suppress fourth-quarter scoring.
- Indiana State Sycamores spread +16.5−100%Lost
Taken at −106 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season margin is South Dakota +7.8 per game versus Indiana State -0.8; home-adjusted projection is about South Dakota +11.6.
- Indiana State covered +16.5 in 4 of 5 current-season games; South Dakota covered -16.5 in only 2 of 5.
- The pooled 10-game proxy is 6/10 (60%), clearing the PWP consistency gate despite the early-season sample.
- South Dakota owns the stronger 3-2 record and +7.8 recent margin; a turnover or short-field swing can create separation.
- South Dakota Coyotes spread −17.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection, NO REFERENCE: South Dakota posted .1568 offensive EPA/play versus Indiana State's .0895 in 2026 data.
- South Dakota's current success rate is 56.7%, versus Indiana State's 41.3%.
- Official preview lists South Dakota ranked No. 13/16, 3-2, against Indiana State 2-3.
- The projection uses only two current-game rows per team, with materially different opponents.
Questions
Who won Indiana State vs. South Dakota?
The South Dakota won 44–14 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.