Kentucky vs. South CarolinaFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalWilliams-Brice Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK | 0 | 10 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 35 |
| SC | 14 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 34 |
Top model pick, graded
WonKentucky Wildcats spread +2.5 51¢
Why ProphetX CFB Lines likes it: Kentucky’s current offense posts +0.238 EPA/play; South Carolina’s defense allows +0.157 EPA/play.
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% this season · 286 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 13-5 on this game · +47% return
- Game total over 53+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
5 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Resting Money +3Why 5 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs- game 2026 FBS sample: Kentucky averages +0.239 offensive EPA/play; South Carolina +0.290.
- South Carolina allows +0.168 defensive EPA/play versus Kentucky's +0.067; Kentucky's offense draws the softer defense.
- The most likely loss is a 27-24 or 28-24 game: respectable efficiency without enough red-zone touchdowns.
Resting Money- Book levels are tied 3-3; backing Over 53, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. Price is 49.26¢ (ProphetX +103 quote).
- Book-level count does not corroborate the direction (3 versus 3), so this is two-of-three confirmation rather than a full three-measure signal.
Key Number CFB- Kentucky averages 0.239 offensive EPA/play and 52.9% success; South Carolina allows 0.168 defensive EPA/play.
- Kentucky’s 2026 pace is 30.07 seconds/play; South Carolina’s defense has allowed 0.290 offensive EPA/play to opponents.
- Most likely loss: South Carolina’s slower 24.73-second pace and Kentucky’s defense force a 27-24 type game.
Tempo Board- four-game 2026 sample: Kentucky averaged 30.07 seconds per play; South Carolina averaged 24.73, creating a faster possession environment.
- Kentucky posted a .1747 explosive rate and .5291 success rate; South Carolina allowed +0.1683 defensive EPA per play in the current sample.
- Kentucky's 30.07-second pace can suppress possessions if South Carolina fails to sustain its tempo.
- Kentucky Wildcats spread +2.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Saturday Board Pairs +1Why 3 models like it
ProphetX CFB Lines- Kentucky’s current offense posts +0.238 EPA/play; South Carolina’s defense allows +0.157 EPA/play.
- Kentucky’s 30.1-second pace versus South Carolina’s 24.7 reduces expected possessions and supports the underdog.
- South Carolina’s current points per drive is 3.06 versus Kentucky’s 2.80, and home field can erase the edge.
Saturday Board Pairs- current four-game efficiency averages favor Kentucky's defense: +0.066 EPA allowed/play versus South Carolina's +0.169.
- Kentucky leads current success rate .529 to .499 and explosive rate .175 to .146; that profile supports staying inside 2.5.
- Most likely loss: South Carolina's +0.053 offensive EPA/play edge and 24.76-second pace create an early home-field lead Kentucky cannot erase.
ProphetX Pairs- Kentucky's four-game defensive EPA allowed is +0.066/play versus South Carolina's +0.169, a 0.103/play edge.
- Kentucky leads South Carolina in current-season success rate, .529 to .499, and explosive rate, .175 to .146.
- South Carolina's offense has the better four-game EPA/play average, +0.291 versus Kentucky's +0.238, and has home field.
- South Carolina Gamecocks to win−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsResting Money, ProphetX PairsWhy 2 models like it
Resting Money- Directional check: backing South Carolina, which is thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Book-level count does not corroborate: 3 vs 3, so this is only a two-measure signal.
ProphetX Pairs- Four current-season games: South Carolina owns the stronger offense EPA average, 0.290 versus Kentucky's 0.239.
- Fox Sports' current game page lists Kenny Minchey and LaNorris Sellers as the starting quarterbacks.
- The projection gap is modest at 1.69 percentage points; variance still dominates.
- Game total under 53.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 0xb4f978… holds $30,063 of Under 53.5 after same-day buys at 6:13am and 7:48am PDT.
- 54 or more points loses; South Carolina and Kentucky show recent offensive EPA/play of 0.2513 and 0.0908.
- Kentucky Wildcats +2.5+95%Won
Taken at −105 on FanDuel
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Kentucky leads current EPA defense allowed 0.066 to 0.168 and success rate 52.9% to 49.9%.
- Kentucky's 90.0 team grade and 75.3 coverage grade exceed South Carolina's 82.6 and 59.2.
- South Carolina has two listed EDG starters out; Kentucky's Minchey and Sellers are the expected starters.
- South Carolina owns home-field advantage and the stronger current offense EPA: 0.290 versus Kentucky's 0.238.
- Game total under 52−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX prices under 52 at 48.54¢ versus under 51.5 at 46.95¢: only a 1.59-point premium.
- The whole-rung option is undercompensated by roughly 0.91 points versus the observed 2.497% exact-52 mass.
- A final total of 53 or more loses; exactly 52 returns stake rather than profit.
Show all 11 picks
- South Carolina Gamecocks spread −3 (push if win by exactly 3)−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX quotes -3 at +116 versus adjacent -3.5 at +134: 3.56-point implied gap versus 9.208% push mass.
- The 9.208% estimate is all CFB games from 2014-25, not team-specific or season-specific.
- Kentucky Wildcats spread +3.5+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Kentucky's 2026 offense averages +0.238 EPA/play and a 52.9% success rate; South Carolina is +0.291 EPA/play but 49.9% successful.
- 2026 PFF team card favors Kentucky overall, 90.0 to 82.6, and offense, 82.5 to 69.2; that supports a competitive margin.
- Kenny Minchey and LaNorris Sellers are supported as the current starters by last-game pass-attempt leaders, current availability, and a same-day web check.
- The estimated edge is only about 1.36 percentage points; the density adjustment is narrow and variance dominates.
- South Carolina Gamecocks first-half spread over 3.5+144%Won
Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 1,761 regular-season FBS games (2024-25): signed home-margin SD 22.28; half-game SD scales to 15.75.
- Pinnacle full-game South Carolina -2.5 supports a positive home mean; variance, not mean, drives this tail.
- Derived reference, not an independent first-half sharp quote; rung inference inherits model error.
- Game first-half total over 27.5 points+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 Weeks 1-4: Kentucky 30.08 sec/play and 5.75 first-half drives/game; South Carolina 24.73 sec/play and 6.25 drives.
- Points/drive baselines are 2.80 Kentucky and 3.06 South Carolina; PROE is +0.0745/+0.0763 and explosive rate .1747/.1457.
- Only a 1.1-point model gap over 27.5; same-rung reference is derived, not an independent sharp first-half line.
- Kentucky Wildcats to win+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Kentucky posted 0.272, 0.275 offensive EPA/play in its two latest 2026 games, including a 31, 21 win at Texas A&M.
- Kentucky's defense allowed 0.067 EPA/play versus Texas A&M and -0.082 versus South Alabama; South Carolina allowed 0.285 versus Mississippi State and 0.498 versus Alabama.
- Most likely loss: South Carolina's home-field edge and LaNorris Sellers' confirmed start produce a cleaner offensive game than his recent form suggests.
Questions
Who won Kentucky vs. South Carolina?
The Kentucky won 35–34 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.