Louisville vs. NC StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalCarter-Finley Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 0 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 28 |
| NCSU | 3 | 10 | 15 | 3 | 31 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame first-half total under 27.5 points 70¢
Why Two Quarters likes it: Live state is 10-0 at 14:20 of Q2: only four drives and 35 plays; NC State's 14-play touchdown drive consumed 5:20 of Q1 through 14:20 of Q2.
Two QuartersDown 10% this season · 321 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-2 on this game · +38% return
- Game first-half total under 27.5 points+43%Won
Taken at 70¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Live state is 10-0 at 14:20 of Q2: only four drives and 35 plays; NC State's 14-play touchdown drive consumed 5:20 of Q1 through 14:20 of Q2.
- No independent same-rung sharp first-half total is posted; this is a derived reference and therefore a LEAN, not a recommended position.
- Game total over 55+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- whole-number over 55 pushes at exactly 55; over 55.5 loses on that same outcome.
- Exact total 55 occurred 395 of 10,371 CFB games from 2014-25: 3.809% (2021-25: 3.695%).
- ProphetX prices over 55 at 54.75¢ (-121) versus over 55.5 at 53.05¢ (-113): a 1.70-point price step for a 3.809% push-protection slice.
- The historical 55-point frequency is broad CFB data, not matchup-specific and may not transfer to 2026 offenses or rules.
- NC State Wolfpack spread +3+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Directional away-team three-point margin occurred in 464 completed NCAAF regular/post games, 4.231%; absolute three-point margin was 9.054%.
- ProphetX quotes NC State +3 at +100 (50¢) versus +3.5 at -122, despite +3 carrying the refund option.
- The 4.231% push estimate is an all-NCAAF historical rate, not matchup-specific.
- Game total under 51.5−100%Lost
Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Game total under 47.5−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- DraftKings simultaneously lists the same live under 47.5 at -120, a substantial sharp-reference gap in ProphetX's favor.
- Only 3 points have scored through the end of the first quarter; the under needs 44 or fewer additional points.
- Louisville's live offensive EPA is -0.2782/play versus NC State's +0.0847, supporting a low-scoring projection despite the short sample.
- A single defensive or special-teams touchdown, or rapid second-quarter pace, can break the under quickly.
- NC State Wolfpack spread +5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX quotes +5 at +100; Pinnacle also showed NC State +5 at +100.
- NC State’s 2026 defensive EPA allowed is 0.012 per play versus Louisville’s 0.111.
- Points per drive are essentially identical: NC State 3.167, Louisville 3.166.
- Most likely loss: Louisville’s stronger offense and 17.6% explosive-play rate create separation before NC State’s defense adjusts.
Show all 7 picks
- NC State Wolfpack to win+144%Won
Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle lists NC State +131 and FanDuel +132; ProphetX offers the same underdog outcome at the superior +142 quote.
- Most likely loss: Louisville wins a close game, consistent with the broader market making Louisville roughly a 3-point favorite.
Questions
Who won Louisville vs. NC State?
The NC State won 31–28 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.