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Maryland vs. NebraskaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMemorial Stadium (Lincoln
Maryland2–2
23–48Final
Nebraska4–0
Score by period
Team1234T
MD1670023
NEB72102048

Top model pick, graded

Won

Over 52.5 total 51¢

Why ProphetX CFB Lines likes it: Pinnacle's exact 52.5 reference is -108/-108; devigged Over probability is 50.0%.

ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% this season · 286 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 10-9 on this game · −6% return

  1. Maryland Terrapins spread +14.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsHouse Rules, ProphetX Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    House Rules
    • Maryland +14.5 has no push; Nebraska winning by exactly 14 still cashes Maryland.
    • ProphetX prices +14.5 at 49.26¢ versus +14 at 46.95¢, a 2.31-point implied gap.
    • The 2.661% figure is all NCAAF regular/postseason data from 2014-25, not Maryland-Nebraska-specific.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Pinnacle makes Maryland +14.5 -105; ProphetX improves that reference to +103.
    • The main sportsbook board remains around Nebraska -14.5, while ProphetX offers the dog two points of price value at the qualifying rung.
    • Nebraska is 4-0 with a +30.5 recent scoring margin; Maryland is 2-2 at +6.5, and the base-strength profile favors the favorite.
    Long Way Home
    • Four-game success rate is nearly even: Maryland 51.945% versus Nebraska 51.663%, despite Nebraska being priced as a 14.5-point favorite.
    • Maryland's defense trails Nebraska's recent defensive EPA by only 0.0173 points per play, making a 15-point separation look demanding.
    • Nebraska's offense has averaged +0.342 EPA per play and 3.893 points per drive, materially ahead of Maryland at +0.187 and 2.748.
  2. Nebraska Cornhuskers to winFavorite2 models agree
    +15%Won

    Taken at −650 on FanDuel

    2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP Composite Grade: 78/100 (B); model projects Nebraska at 92.7% versus 86.7% implied at -650.
    • Nebraska is 4-0 this season and 4-0 in its current four-game streak; Maryland is 2-2.
    • The edge relies heavily on one live predictor; its 92.7% estimate may be overconfident.
    Long Way Home
    • cfb_predictor projected Nebraska at 92.7% to win; 92.7% converts to fair odds of roughly -1270 versus 86.11¢ (-620).
    • Pinnacle was -690 on the same moneyline; ProphetX offers the materially better favorite price at -620.
    • The predictor snapshot was observed at 6:05 AM, before the 11:00 AM Game Day reports; its 92.7% estimate may not fully reflect late availability.
  3. Game total under 532 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Tempo Board
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Both confirmed starters are live: Maryland's Malik Washington and Nebraska's Anthony Colandrea; ProphetX's main total is 53 versus the captured sportsbook reference of 52.5.
    • Maryland's three FBS games averaged 22.3 points scored, while Nebraska's four-game average is 42.5; the defensive matchup and Maryland's recent offensive collapse support a lower game total.
    • Nebraska averaged 0.349 EPA/play over four games; efficient drives or short fields can beat the under quickly.
    Tempo Board
    • Sportsbook reference is 52.5 at -110; ProphetX supplies a half-point cushion while the tempo read remains below a shootout profile.
    • 2026 current sample is four games per team: Maryland success rates .419-.605 and explosive rates .122-.185; Nebraska is .479-.561 and .099-.203.
    • Most likely loss: Nebraska converts explosive plays or short fields while Maryland reaches 20-plus, pushing the game into the mid-50s.
  4. Over 52.5 total
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's exact 52.5 reference is -108/-108; devigged Over probability is 50.0%.
    • Maryland scored 3 points with four interceptions last week; another turnover-heavy collapse kills the Over.
  5. Nebraska Cornhuskers first-half spread NO 9.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2,629 regular-season CFB games from 2023-25 give full-game margin SD 14.71; square-root scaling gives first-half SD 10.40.
    • 2026 through four games: Nebraska averages 3.89 points per drive and +0.342 EPA/play; Maryland averages 2.75 points per drive and +0.187 EPA/play.
    • Model first-half mean is Nebraska +7.0; at the exact 9.5 rung, P(Nebraska over) is 40.5%, so P(NO) is 59.5%.
    • Only four 2026 games per team; Maryland’s 3-54 UCLA loss makes the form volatile and schedule-adjustment is thin.
  6. Game total under 52.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nebraska’s -0.091 defensive EPA/play allowed and Maryland’s recent 0.188 points per drive against UCLA support a lower Maryland scoring projection.
    • Maryland has a 58.4% season pass rate, while Lincoln’s forecast calls for south winds 8-13 mph with gusts to 22 mph and no rain.
    • My fair total is 49.5, three points below FanDuel’s 52.5 at -110.
    • Nebraska averages 3.89 points per drive and a 15.5% explosive-play rate across four games; its offense can carry the game over by itself.
Show all 15 picks
  1. Nebraska Cornhuskers spread −14.5
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nebraska averages +0.342 EPA/play and 3.89 points per drive; Maryland averages +0.187 EPA/play and 2.75 points per drive.
    • Nebraska’s defense allows -0.091 EPA/play versus Maryland’s -0.073; the overall efficiency gap makes my fair spread Nebraska -17.0.
    • Both primary quarterbacks are supported by same-week official sources: Malik Washington’s Maryland preview and Anthony Colandrea’s Nebraska roster/Rhule media coverage.
    • Maryland’s Washington has 1,034 passing yards and six touchdowns; explosive quarterback play can create a backdoor cover.
  2. Nebraska Cornhuskers spread −16
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current 4-game sample: Nebraska offense +0.342 EPA/play versus Maryland defense allowing -0.073; Maryland offense +0.187 versus Nebraska allowing -0.091.
    • Nebraska’s PFF 2026 offense grade is 86.1 versus Maryland’s 76.3; passing grades are 90.1 versus 72.9.
    • Nebraska is 4-0 with a +30.5 average margin; Maryland is 2-2 with a +6.5 average margin.
    • Only four current-season games per team; Nebraska’s sample includes non-power opponents, so the EPA gap may be inflated.
  3. Nebraska −16
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nebraska's 3 book levels versus Maryland's 2 corroborate the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it configuration; backing Nebraska, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • point spread is highly variance-sensitive; Maryland can lose outright while still covering, or Nebraska can fail to separate.
  4. Nebraska Cornhuskers spread −15.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nebraska’s 2026 offense is +0.349 EPA/play versus Maryland’s +0.187 through four games.
    • 2026 PFF offense grades favor Nebraska 86.1 to 76.3; passing grades are 90.1 to 72.9 and pass-block grades 78.2 to 68.5.
    • Nebraska is 4-0 with a +30.5 recent scoring margin; Maryland is 2-2 at +6.5, supporting the favorite’s projection.
    • Maryland’s 2026 PFF defense grades 82.5 versus Nebraska’s 77.9, including an 83.4-to-78.2 pass-rush edge.
  5. Game total over 50.5
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The sharp reference is 52.5 at Pinnacle; taking over 50.5 captures a lower rung before the 51-point key-number mass.
    • Historical CFB regular/postseason totals show 51 points 355 times versus 50 at 156; flat interpolation understates the value of clearing 50.5.
    • 2026 form averages 58.0 combined points in Maryland games and 54.5 in Nebraska games; offenses average 0.1865 and 0.3420 EPA/play.
    • Most likely loss: Nebraska's defense controls Maryland and the game finishes at 50 points or fewer.
  6. Chris Durr Jr. under 71.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 8 of his latest 10 appearances finished under 71.5 receiving yards.
    • Nebraska's defense posted negative EPA allowed per play in all four 2026 games, averaging -0.090.
    • FanDuel -114 implies 53.3%; conservative model estimate is 68%, a 14.7-point margin.
    • He has exceeded this line twice in four 2026 games, including 109 and 103 yards.
  7. Anthony Colandrea under 39.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 8 of his latest 10 appearances finished under 39.5 rushing yards.
    • He is under this line in 3 of 4 2026 games; the lone over was 66 yards.
    • FanDuel -114 implies 53.3%; conservative model estimate is 68%, a 14.7-point margin.
    • Maryland's 2026 defense has allowed +0.1046 EPA per play, creating scramble-upside risk.
  8. Nebraska Cornhuskers −14.5
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nebraska averaged 0.342 offensive EPA/play across four 2026 games; Maryland averaged 0.187.
    • Nebraska's defense allowed -0.091 EPA/play versus Maryland's -0.073, a modest opponent-side efficiency edge.
    • QB/injury family favors Nebraska: Anthony Colandrea started every game; Maryland lists multiple defensive starters or rotation pieces out.
    • Maryland's 82.5 defensive grade and 83.4 pass-rush grade can keep the margin below 15.
  9. Game first-half total under 27.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • LEAN, not RECOMMENDED because no independent sharp 1H reference.
    • The uncalibrated drive/ppp output was 31.9 points; anchoring to 52.5 is the key model reconciliation.

Questions

Who won Maryland vs. Nebraska?

The Nebraska won 48–23 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.

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