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Memphis vs. CharlotteFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalJerry Richardson Stadium
Memphis3–1
59–8Final
Charlotte0–4
Score by period
Team1234T
MEM1413181459
CLT00808

Top model pick, graded

Won

Memphis Tigers spread −20 52¢

Why Saturday Board Pairs likes it: Four-game cross-match: Memphis offense +0.344 EPA/play versus Charlotte defense +0.259 allowed; Charlotte offense -0.173 versus Memphis defense +0.155 allowed.

Saturday Board PairsDown 4% this season · 567 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-8 on this game · −30% return

  1. Memphis Tigers spread −202 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Four-game cross-match: Memphis offense +0.344 EPA/play versus Charlotte defense +0.259 allowed; Charlotte offense -0.173 versus Memphis defense +0.155 allowed.
    • Memphis owns the explosive-play edge, 0.182 to Charlotte's 0.109, while PFF offense grades are 71.5 versus 60.5.
    • The efficiency sample is only four 2026 games and is not opponent-strength adjusted; Memphis' results include UT Martin.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Memphis owns a +0.517 2026 off-EPA/play gap, +0.131 success-rate gap and +0.073 explosive-rate gap.
    • Memphis has allowed 0.155 defensive EPA/play versus Charlotte's 0.259 through four games; both teams are FBS.
    • point spread is high variance; Memphis lost outright to Boise State despite its stronger season profile.
  2. Charlotte 49ers spread +20.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, House Rules
    Why 2 models like it
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP Grade 72/100 (B): CFB predictor makes Memphis -18.3, 2.2 points short of the posted -20.5.
    • Estimated Charlotte cover probability 56% versus a 48.4% devigged market baseline: roughly +7.6 percentage points.
    • Charlotte is 0-4 straight up this season and a game script with Memphis turnovers or explosive plays can create a backdoor problem.
    House Rules
    • Historical CFB exact-margin mass at 20 was 176 of 10,371 games, 4.545% (2014-25 regular season/postseason).
    • Pooled 2014-25 CFB margin frequency is not a matchup-specific estimate; the actual 20-point mass can differ.
  3. Game total under 512 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsHouse Rules, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    House Rules
    • under 51 pushes at exactly 51; the adjacent under 50.5 loses at 51.
    • 25 finals: exactly 51 total points occurred in 3.221% of games.
    • The 3.221% rate is league-wide historical data, not a matchup-specific projection.
    Long Way Home
    • Edge class: PROJECTION; reference label: SHARP REFERENCE.
    • Charlotte's four-game 2026 offense averages -0.175 EPA/play; its latest mark was -0.718 with 0.00 points per drive.
    • Most likely loss: Memphis converts short fields and explosive plays while Charlotte adds garbage-time scores, pushing the game above 51.
  4. Game total under 52
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Memphis posted +0.344 EPA/play, 50.9% success, and 18.2% explosive rate across four 2026 games.
    • Charlotte posted -0.176 EPA/play, 37.8% success, and 10.9% explosive rate across four games; Memphis allowed +0.155 EPA/play.
    • Possession shape favors restraint: Charlotte averaged 27.4 seconds per play and Memphis 24.5; current sportsbook references were 51, 51.5.
    • Memphis can threaten 40 points by itself against Charlotte's defense, which allowed +0.246 EPA/play in the current sample.
  5. Memphis Tigers wins 1st HalfFavorite
    +22%Won

    Taken at 82¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Memphis averaged 0.344 offensive EPA/play, 50.9% success, and 18.3% explosiveness across its four 2026 games.
    • Charlotte averaged -0.173 offensive EPA/play, 37.8% success, and 10.9% explosiveness across four games.
    • Memphis averaged 3.30 points/drive versus Charlotte's 1.29; the script-quality gap is most relevant before halftime.
    • Memphis has only four 2026 games and Charlotte's sample includes a severe 0.0-points/drive outing; opponent-quality adjustment is limited.
  6. Memphis Tigers spread −17.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Memphis averages +0.3436 offensive EPA/play and 3.301 points/drive; Charlotte is -0.1757 and 1.293.
    • PFF's latest 2026 team card gives Memphis an 80.4 overall grade versus Charlotte's 67.4.
    • Memphis has only four 2026 games; its current margin distribution is a small sample.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Game total under 54
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Memphis owns a 0.3436 offensive EPA/play average; Charlotte is at -0.1730, with only 1.293 points per drive.
    • Charlotte is 0-4 with 78 points scored; Memphis is 3-1 with 134 scored, supporting a lower-scoring Charlotte contribution.
    • QB gate cleared: Marcus Stokes and Cole Gonzales led their teams' latest pass-attempt rows; official Memphis notes and Charlotte's game center list them.
    • Memphis' 0.3436 offensive EPA/play can produce 40-plus points without Charlotte contributing much.
  2. Memphis–Charlotte total under 54
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX's 54-point game total sits 2 points above its listed 36.5 + 15.5 team-total sum.
    • 2026 four-game sample shows Charlotte at 37.8% offensive success and 10.9% explosiveness; Memphis allows 0.155 EPA/play.
    • Current 2026 scoring averages are Memphis 33.5 and Charlotte 19.5, a 53.0-point combined baseline before the two-point venue cushion.
    • Memphis has produced 18.2% explosive plays and 33.5 points per game; its offense can clear the total alone.
  3. Charlotte 49ers spread +17.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • book_levels are Charlotte 3 versus Memphis 3; levels are neutral, so two of three measures support the read.
    • Backing Charlotte +17.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches; this hypothesis is being tested against outcomes.
    • Venue self-reference only; no independent ticket or handle data confirms the order-flow interpretation.
  4. Memphis Tigers spread −21
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NO REFERENCE (no exact sharp quote on -21).
    • 2026 form: Memphis +7.5 margin over four games; Charlotte -21.3 over its last three, a 28.8-point gap.
    • Last-season margins were Memphis +9.3 and Charlotte -22.0; the 31.3-point gap supports a 20-plus Memphis win.
    • Charlotte's home field and opponent mix can compress the margin; the form samples are only three to four games.

Questions

Who won Memphis vs. Charlotte?

The Memphis won 59–8 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.

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