Mercer vs. VMIFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalFoster Stadium

Mercer3–2

54–3Final

VMI0–5

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
MERC	10	17	10	17	54
VMI	3	0	0	0	3

Top model pick, graded

Won

Mercer Bears to win 98¢

Models went 1-2 on this game · −66% return

Mercer Bears to winFavorite
+2%Won
Taken at 98¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
Game total under 50.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 2026 CFB data shows VMI at -0.331 offensive EPA/play and 0.392 points/drive; its offense is the scoring bottleneck.
- Mercer is stronger offensively (+0.086 EPA/play), but its 1.759 points/drive profile does not require a 40-point outburst against VMI.
- The teams’ 2026 completed-game totals average 44.0 in the directly observed Mercer/VMI samples; this is a thin but under-shaped baseline.
- The sample is only two 2026 advanced-stat games per team, so the projection is highly uncertain.
Game total under 48.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- VMI has scored 10, 3, 3, 24 and 7 points; its five-game average is 9.4.
- Mercer’s five-game scoring average is 28.6, producing a raw 38.0-point combined baseline versus a 48.5 total.
- Mercer scored 62 and 34 in two of its five games; a mismatch can create late garbage-time points.

The Mercer won 54–3 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.