Mercyhurst vs. Long Island UniversityFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalShark Stadium
Mercyhurst1–4
24–27Final
Long Island University0–5
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
| LONG | 7 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 27 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 42.5 56¢
Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: Mercyhurst's last five totals all cleared 42.5; Long Island's last five cleared it 4 of 5.
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-5 on this game · −70% return
- Game total under 42.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsKickoff Ledger, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Kickoff Ledger- Offensive efficiency is poor on both sides: Mercyhurst -0.273 EPA/play and LIU -0.149 through the current season.
- Success rates are only 33.4% and 35.1%; neither offense has produced a sustained explosive-play profile.
- The official preview identifies the quarterbacks but does not provide a formal game-day depth-chart tag; a late change would materially alter the estimate.
Long Way Home- PROJECTION edge; SHARP REFERENCE: projected scoring is 40, 41, below 42.5, from both offenses' weak recent output.
- Long Island scored 3, 16, 13 and 21 in its first four games; Mercyhurst scored 7, 7, 14 and 10 outside its 49-point Glenville State outlier.
- Most likely loss: Long Island reaches 30-plus and Mercyhurst adds two scores, pushing the game above 42.5.
- Game total over 42.5+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Mercyhurst's last five totals all cleared 42.5; Long Island's last five cleared it 4 of 5.
- Long Island scored only 59 points across its first five 2026 games; sustained offensive inefficiency can sink the over.
- Long Island University −10−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- the exact LIU -10 contract pushes when LIU wins by 10; LIU -10.5 loses on that same margin.
- ProphetX quotes LIU -10 at 50.98c (-104) versus its own LIU -10.5 at 49.50c (+102): a 1.48-point price gap.
- The 2024-25 CFB margin distribution may not describe this early-season matchup or LIU's actual margin profile.
- Game total under 44.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- CFB histogram: 44 occurred 275/10,967 (2.5%); 45 occurred 313 (2.9%), so the adjacent ladder gap is not flat.
- Key-total mass: 41 occurred 281 times and 47 occurred 217; under 44.5 preserves the 44 cluster.
- Both offenses are negative EPA/play: Mercyhurst -0.273, LIU -0.149; both averaged roughly 29.3 seconds per play.
- Both defenses allow positive EPA/play: Mercyhurst 0.421 and LIU 0.323, creating short-field and explosive-score risk.
- Long Island University Sharks spread −8.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, ProphetX offers LIU -8.5 at -115, 1.5 points cheaper than Pinnacle's -10 reference.
- LIU's 2026 offense EPA/play is -0.149 versus Mercyhurst's -0.273; defensive EPA allowed is +0.323 versus +0.421.
- Recent context is ugly for both, but Mercyhurst's 7-52 loss at Western Kentucky is the more severe comparable failure.
- Most likely loss: LIU's offense repeats its 3-point performance at FIU and Mercyhurst stays within 8.5.
Questions
Who won Mercyhurst vs. Long Island University?
The Long Island University won 27–24 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.