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Michigan State vs. WisconsinFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalCamp Randall Stadium
Michigan State2–2
3–31Final
Wisconsin3–1
Score by period
Team1234T
MSU03003
WIS1437731

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total under 43.5 −110

Why NCAAF Trend & Market Flow Quant likes it: Wisconsin home totals went under 15 of 20 (75%) across 2023-25 DK closes.

NCAAF Trend & Market Flow QuantUp 20% return this season · 19 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 6-9 on this game · −24% return

  1. Game total over 43.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsKey Number CFB, Kickoff Ledger
    Why 2 models like it
    Key Number CFB
    • The teams’ eight 2026 totals are 44, 44, 37, 64, 45, 42, 54, 50; six cleared 43.5.
    • MSU’s recent defensive EPA allowed is +0.125, while Wisconsin averages 31.75 points through four games.
    • Wisconsin’s defense allowed only 20.0 points per game through four contests, creating a real stall-out path.
    Kickoff Ledger
    • Wisconsin posts +0.227 offensive EPA/play versus Michigan State's +0.066; both defenses allow roughly +0.06 to +0.08.
    • Four-game scoring blend projects approximately 27-19, or 46 points; fair total 46.5 versus the 43.5 market.
    • Wisconsin's 22.4-second pace average can suppress possessions; this is the biggest threat to the over.
  2. Game total under 43.5
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    NCAAF Trend & Market Flow QuantDown 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wisconsin home totals went under 15 of 20 (75%) across 2023-25 DK closes.
    • That trend is roughly 25 percentage points above the current market's ~50% under price.
    • Wisconsin allowed only 0.021 EPA/play over its last 10; Michigan State averaged 0.043 offensive EPA/play.
    • Wisconsin's 2026 offense averages 31.8 points and its last four game totals averaged 51.8.
  3. 3-leg parlay
    +61%Won

    Taken at −163

    Short YardageUp 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wake Forest: -650 implies 86.7%; model 91.5% (+4.8 points), with 2026 four-game grades 85.7 overall and 82.5 defense.
    • Wisconsin: -360 implies 78.3%; model 84.5% (+6.2 points), with 92.8 overall and 91.3 defense grades against Michigan State's 84.8 defense.
    • North Dakota State: -1050 implies 91.3%; model 95.0% (+3.7 points), backed by +0.266 offensive EPA/play, 0.518 success rate, and 2.92 points/drive.
    • All three current-season samples are only four games; estimates use conservative uncertainty bands rather than optimistic form.
  4. Under 44 total
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • only current samples average 56.5 Michigan State plays and 66.5 Wisconsin plays, while the efficiency/points-per-drive pairing supports fewer than 44 points.
    • The integer 44 carries a modeled 4.0% push mass, so the clean-win rate is lower than the push-adjusted probability.
  5. Michigan State Spartans spread +9.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ESPN predictor projects Wisconsin by 5.8; the 9.5-point market spread leaves a 3.7-point cushion.
    • Michigan State covered 8 of its last 9 decided DK spreads, including 2-0 in its first three 2026 decisions.
    • Michigan State has multiple official defensive-back and offensive-line absences, creating role and matchup uncertainty.
  6. Michigan State Spartans spread +11.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3-3; two of three measures support Michigan State, with both raw pools substantial.
    • Backing Michigan State +11.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book levels do not corroborate directionally (3-3), leaving the signal dependent on quote thinness and total depth.
Show all 14 picks
  1. Wisconsin Badgers spread −10
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wisconsin -10 pushes on exactly a 10-point win; Wisconsin -10.5 loses in that same outcome.
    • 25 final-margin data records a 4.252% exact-10 margin frequency.
    • ProphetX prices Wisconsin -10 at +119 versus -10.5 at +118: only a 0.21-point implied-probability gap for the push option.
    • point win is a push, not a win; Wisconsin must win by 11 or more to cash.
  2. Michigan State Spartans spread +7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The +6.5/+7.5 ladder gap is only 1.39 probability points: 47.39¢ to 48.78¢.
    • Most likely loss: Wisconsin wins by eight or more, bypassing the seven-point key number.
  3. Game total under 44
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wisconsin's defense allows 0.0266 EPA/play, with a 91.3 PFF defense and 90.8 coverage grade against Michigan State's 76.2 offense grade.
    • Starter gate cleared: Alessio Milivojevic and Colton Joseph led their teams' latest pass attempts; a current preview lists both as starters.
    • The most likely loss is Wisconsin converting explosive plays or turnovers into a 45-plus total.
  4. Wisconsin Badgers spread −8
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • FBS-only 2026 offense EPA favors Wisconsin, +0.212 vs Michigan State +0.066.
    • Wisconsin leads explosive-play rate 13.0% to 11.6%, supporting margin separation.
    • Michigan State's success rate is higher, 50.1% versus Wisconsin's 46.2%.
  5. Wisconsin Badgers first-half spread NO 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4,256 CFB finals from 2022, 26 produced SD_full 15.247; sqrt-half SD is 10.781.
    • season margins and home field imply full-game +9.25, hence first-half mean +4.63.
    • Pinnacle’s current full-game Wisconsin -9.5 is consistent with the projected full-game margin.
    • College margin mass peaks at 3 (399) and 7 (331); the 6.5 rung sits directly below measured 7-point mass.
  6. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +24400

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • MSU's four-game offense is +0.066 EPA/play and 50.1% success; Wisconsin defense allowed +0.060 EPA/play.
    • Wisconsin's 91.3 PFF defense and 90.8 coverage grade support a low-scoring MSU offense and extra dog margin.
    • Pinnacle reference is Wisconsin -9.5 and 43.5; fill +245 (3.45), $100 maximum, versus 3.1608 product; fill/product ratio 1.09.
    • Most likely loss: Wisconsin's +0.210 offensive EPA/play meets MSU's +0.091 defensive EPA allowed, producing a 12-plus-point win and enough points.
  7. Game total over 44
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; NO REFERENCE. A four-game offense/defense blend projects 47.5 points, 3.5 above ProphetX's 44.
    • Wisconsin averages 31.75 points scored and allows 20.0; Michigan State averages 22.0 scored and allows 21.25.
    • The most likely loss is Wisconsin building a lead, then both teams running clock while Michigan State's offense stalls.
  8. Michigan State Spartans to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 24¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four-game margins are Wisconsin +11.8 versus Michigan State +0.8, but the spread is only 8.5 points.
    • Wisconsin is 3-1 with a +11.8 recent margin; Michigan State is 2-2 at +0.8.

Questions

Who won Michigan State vs. Wisconsin?

The Wisconsin won 31–3 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.

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