Navy vs. Air ForceFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalFalcon Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| AF | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
Top model pick, graded
WonAir Force −2.5 53¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-5 on this game · −29% return
- Air Force −2.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Air Force Falcons spread −3+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are 3 for Air Force and 3 for Navy; the two core measures agree, while level count is neutral.
- Directional coherence check: backing Air Force -3, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Book-level count does not corroborate the read: both sides have 3 levels.
- Navy Midshipmen spread +4.5−100%Lost
Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Navy +4.5 is -146 (59.35c), identical to the whole-number Navy +4 quote.
- Navy +4.5 loses if Air Force wins by 5 or more; its advantage over +4 occurs only on the exact-4 outcome.
- Air Force Falcons to win+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 PFF card: Air Force overall 91.3 versus Navy 81.7; passing 75.0 versus 54.0 and coverage 80.1 versus 49.4.
- 2026 efficiency: Air Force offense +0.252 EPA/play versus Navy +0.140, with Air Force at home; both teams' three-game samples are partial.
- Quarterback gate cleared: latest box leaders are Liam Szarka for Air Force and Jackson Gutierrez for Navy, with fresh web checks identifying both as the current quarterbacks.
- Air Force's defense has allowed +0.155 EPA/play through three games, while Navy's offense is +0.140; the matchup edge is not purely defensive.
- Game total over 45.5−100%Lost
Taken at −108 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fair total 49.0 versus the live 45.5 market: a 3.5-point cushion.
- 2026 efficiency: Air Force 0.252 offensive EPA/play and 3.22 points/drive; Navy 0.138 and 2.94.
- Fox Sports lists confirmed starters Jackson Gutierrez and Liam Szarka; no quarterback downgrade is priced in.
- Only three 2026 games per team make the efficiency and scoring samples thin.
- Navy Midshipmen spread +2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Edge class: PROJECTION, live Navy off EPA is -0.1753 versus Air Force -0.5839; Navy defensive EPA allowed is -0.5839 versus -0.1753.
- At 0-0 with 4:05 left in Q1, Navy has the stronger early efficiency profile: 0.333 success rate and 8.3% explosive rate versus Air Force's 0.500 and 0%.
- Reference: SHARP REFERENCE, the same spread is Navy +2.5 at +115 on the sharp board; ProphetX improves the price to +117.
- Most likely loss: Air Force's home option game converts early field position into a margin of 3 or more.
Show all 8 picks
- Game total over 46−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection edge; NO REFERENCE, four of the six teams' 2026 games cleared 46 points, averaging 57.0 total points.
- Air Force posted 0.295, 0.229 and 0.185 offensive EPA/play in its first three games; Navy posted 0.390, 0.053 and -0.021.
- Most likely loss: one or both option offenses stall in scoring range, producing a 24-21-or-lower game.
- Navy Midshipmen to win−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Navy allowed only 0.055 EPA/play versus UAB; Air Force allowed 0.275 versus Nevada and 0.481 versus North Dakota State.
- Air Force's strong offense has been offset by 33 and 38 points allowed in two recent competitive games; Navy's defense is the matchup stabilizer.
- ProphetX price: +129 American, 43.67¢ contract price; edge class is PROJECTION, not payout size.
- Air Force posted +0.229 and +0.233 offensive EPA/play in its last two games, enough to overwhelm Navy if the option game stays on schedule.
Questions
Who won Navy vs. Air Force?
The Air Force won 14–9 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.