New Haven vs. Austin PeayFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalFortera Stadium
New Haven1–4
17–42Final
Austin Peay4–1
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW | 10 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| AUST | 14 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 42 |
Top model pick, graded
WonNew Haven Chargers spread +36.5 −110
Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: 2026 efficiency gap is real: Austin Peay posted +0.099 EPA/play and 45.4% success versus New Haven at -0.169 and 34.6%.
Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-3 on this game · −19% return
- Game total under 50.5−100%Lost
Taken at −102 on BetMGM
3 modelsKickoff Ledger, Picks With Pink Grading System +1Why 3 models like it
Kickoff Ledger- Austin's 2026 average game total is 50.2, but New Haven's average is only 38.4; the combined five-game scoring sample points below 50.5.
- A blended matchup estimate is 46, 48 points: Austin's strong offense is offset by New Haven's 11.8-point scoring average and Austin's 16.0 points allowed.
- Austin can reach the 50-point neighborhood alone against a New Haven defense that allowed 57 to South Dakota State.
Picks With Pink Grading System- Projection 46.5 points versus the 50.5 posted line, a 7.9% projection gap.
- Under 50.5 hit in 6 of the teams' latest 10 combined games; each team clears the 60% preferred L10 gate.
- Total movement opposes the play: BetMGM and BetOnline moved from 50.5 to 51.5.
Long Way Home- New Haven's latest game produced only 0.833 points per drive; Austin Peay's latest figure was 2.333.
- The market's 50.5 total is above the low-output New Haven profile; no same-game correlation is needed for this straight.
- Austin Peay could create a one-sided short-field script, making New Haven's offensive weakness irrelevant to the total.
- New Haven Chargers spread +36.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on BetRivers
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 efficiency gap is real: Austin Peay posted +0.099 EPA/play and 45.4% success versus New Haven at -0.169 and 34.6%.
- Austin averages 34.2 points scored and 16.0 allowed; New Haven averages 11.8 scored and 26.6 allowed, but the matchup projects Austin closer to a 30, 32-point margin than 36.5.
- Chris Parson is confirmed by Austin Peay's official preview; a current Fox game listing names AJ Duffy for New Haven, with no injury/change signal in New Haven's official recap.
- Austin has already scored 35, 63, 38 and 35 against FCS opponents; one more efficient four-quarter effort can erase the cushion.
- New Haven Chargers spread +35.5+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Austin's five 2026 margins were +18, -19, +56, +22, and +23; only one exceeded 35.5.
- New Haven's four losses were by 18, 43, 7, and 7 points; three stayed inside this number.
- Pinnacle also posted New Haven +35.5 at +110; ProphetX improves that by one American point.
- Austin's 56-7 Morehead win shows a genuine blowout tail in this mismatch.
Questions
Who won New Haven vs. Austin Peay?
The Austin Peay won 42–17 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.