Norfolk State vs. Robert MorrisFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalJoe Walton Stadium
Norfolk State3–2
31–33Final
Robert Morris2–2
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NORF | 7 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 31 |
| ROBE | 7 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 33 |
Top model pick, graded
WonNorfolk State Spartans spread +3.5 −110
Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: Norfolk State: -0.067 offensive EPA/play and +0.062 defensive EPA allowed versus Robert Morris at -0.115 and +0.242.
Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-1 on this game · +42% return
- Norfolk State Spartans spread +3.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
2 modelsKickoff Ledger, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Kickoff Ledger- Norfolk State: -0.067 offensive EPA/play and +0.062 defensive EPA allowed versus Robert Morris at -0.115 and +0.242.
- Norfolk State has the better explosive rate, 12.2% to 9.2%, and both teams have seven days' rest.
- Advanced sample is thin: three Norfolk State games and only two Robert Morris games in the efficiency table.
Long Way Home- Norfolk State leads 2026 to-date defense: +0.0623 allowed EPA/play versus Robert Morris +0.2419.
- Norfolk State also leads offense EPA/play (−0.0639 vs −0.1147) and points per drive (1.469 vs 1.330).
- Only three Norfolk State and two Robert Morris 2026 games inform the efficiency comparison.
- Robert Morris +4.5 spread+47%Won
Taken at 68¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's reference line has Robert Morris -3.5 (+106), while ProphetX's main rung is -2.5; the direction supports the home side.
- Key-number density: exact CFB margin 3 occurred 993 of 10,967 games (9.1%); +4.5 protects the common three-point loss.
- Robert Morris' 2026 PFF defense grades 90.2 versus Norfolk State's 67.0, a substantial home-side film edge.
- Norfolk State's Deljay Bailey was sidelined last week; Da'Jean Golmond is expected to start, but the official preview did not publish a formal starter confirmation.
- Game total over 44.5+94%Won
Taken at −106 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Combined scoring averages are 30.8 Norfolk State and 23.8 Robert Morris across completed 2026 games.
- Sunny conditions, no precipitation, and only 5, 7 mph northeast wind remove the main weather drag.
- Fair total 48.5; FanDuel's 44.5 at -106 is four points below the projection.
- The pace data is noisy and incomplete, so tempo is the soft factor in this total projection.
- Game total under 44.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Norfolk State averages 1.47 points per drive and Robert Morris 1.33 through five combined 2026 team-games.
- 2026 scoring samples average 18.7 points for Norfolk State and 19.0 for Robert Morris.
- Norfolk State's offense is -0.064 EPA/play; Robert Morris' offense is -0.115 EPA/play in the current sample.
- Most likely loss: a short-field turnover or explosive Robert Morris pass creates the scoring spike needed to clear 44.5.
Questions
Who won Norfolk State vs. Robert Morris?
The Robert Morris won 33–31 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.