Northern Colorado vs. MontanaFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalWashington-Grizzly Stadium
Northern Colorado2–3
14–36Final
Montana4–1
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NORT | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 14 |
| MONT | 7 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 36 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-3 on this game · −100% return
- Montana Grizzlies spread −24.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, ProphetX PairsWhy 2 models like it
Key Number CFB- Montana's latest PFF card grades 85.5 overall, 78.7 offense and 86.8 pass block, versus Northern Colorado's 69.2 offense and 70.3 pass block.
- Montana is 4-1 with a +13.6 recent scoring margin; Northern Colorado is 2-3 and has allowed 21+ points in three of its five games.
- Northern Colorado's 80.9 PFF defense is stronger than Montana's 72.0 defense, creating a credible path to a margin below 25.
ProphetX Pairs- my non-simulated fair probability is 54%; +115 implies 46.5%.
- Montana’s four 2026 home wins came by 7, 35, 21 and 40 points; average margin 25.75.
- Partial-tier sample: FCS matchup data provide fewer than three current-season FBS games.
- Northern Colorado Bears to win−100%Lost
Taken at 7¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- At 7-0 with 14:53 in the second quarter, Montana has not separated near its 21.5-point pregame expectation; roughly 30 minutes remain.
- Montana's 18 live plays produced 145 yards but -0.046 EPA/play; the lead is one touchdown, not a runaway.
- The venue's 7.14c price is materially more generous than the sharp reference, consistent with an early-score overreaction.
- Northern Colorado has one interception and -0.489 EPA/play across 14 live plays; its offense has been materially worse.
Questions
Who won Northern Colorado vs. Montana?
The Montana won 36–14 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.