Northwestern State vs. LamarFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalProvost Umphrey Stadium

Northwestern State0–5

14–42Final

Lamar3–1

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
NU	7	0	0	13	14
LAMA	14	21	7	0	42

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total over 54.5 −112

Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: PWP grade 72/100: matchup projection is 59.3 points, 8.8% above the 54.5 line.

Models went 1-1 on this game · −5% return

Game total over 54.5
+89%Won
Taken at −112 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PWP grade 72/100: matchup projection is 59.3 points, 8.8% above the 54.5 line.
- Northwestern State games cleared 54.5 in 4 of its last 5; its defense allowed 52.2 points per game this season.
- Northwestern State allowed +0.508 defensive EPA/play over its recent advanced window; Lamar averaged 25.0 points this season.
- Combined recent over rate is only 5 of 9 games, below the preferred 60% gate.
Lamar Cardinals spread −41.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Sharp reference agrees with the level: Pinnacle's main spread is Lamar -41.5 (+111).
- Lamar's latest team grade is 90.2 versus Northwestern State's 62.1; current form is 3-1 versus 0-5, with a +3.2 versus -32.6 scoring-margin read.
- QB gate cleared: Aiden McCown and Zach Wilcke led the latest passing boxes; Fox Sports' current game listing names both as starters.
- Most likely loss: Lamar wins by 41 or fewer; this spread needs a 42-point margin, and no 41-point push exists.

The Lamar won 42–14 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.