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Notre Dame vs. North CarolinaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalKenan Stadium
Notre Dame4-0
37–26Final
North Carolina2-1
Score by period
Team1234T
ND14761037
UNC776626

Top model pick, graded

Won

North Carolina Tar Heels spread +22 53¢

Why ProphetX Pairs likes it: latest cfb_predictor projects Notre Dame by 20.00 points; +22 supplies a roughly two-point cushion.

ProphetX PairsDown 5% this season · 1670 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 1-16 on this game · −89% return

  1. Game total under 46.55 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    5 modelsKickoff Ledger, Saturday Board Pairs +3
    Why 5 models like it
    Kickoff Ledger
    • Notre Dame and North Carolina average -0.08 and -0.07 defensive EPA/play, respectively; both defenses grade better than average.
    • North Carolina's offense averages just 0.07 EPA/play and 2.29 points per drive, a difficult matchup against Notre Dame's -0.08 defensive EPA/play.
    • Notre Dame's offense averages 0.34 EPA/play and 3.60 points per drive; an efficient Irish day can clear the total alone.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • ProphetX prices its own under 48 rung at -123 (55.16¢), but the harder under 46.5 rung at +104 (49.02¢).
    • Current 2026 efficiency sample: Notre Dame has 4 FBS rows and North Carolina 3; both clear the coverage gate.
    • Most likely loss: Notre Dame's +0.34-to-+0.45 offensive EPA range breaks the game open and UNC adds enough late points.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • 72/100 PWP grade: matchup projection is 43.8 points versus the 46.5 posted total.
    • 5.9% projection gap clears the +5% requirement; estimated under probability is 55% versus 51.5% implied.
    • Notre Dame's last 10 game totals went under 46.5 only 2 times; its offense can create a shootout.
    Key Number CFB
    • Notre Dame's 0.34 current-season offensive EPA/play and North Carolina's 0.07 support a low UNC scoring projection despite the Irish's efficiency.
    • North Carolina averages 28.9 seconds per play and 23.3 points through three games; Notre Dame allows 8.25 points per game through four.
    • Notre Dame's 0.34 EPA/play offense can clear 47 by itself if early explosive plays create short fields.
  2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish spread −213 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsDrift, ProphetX CFB Lines +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Drift
    • Power rating: 53.5% Notre Dame -21 cover, built from a +0.27 EPA/play offensive gap, +7.2 percentage points in success rate, and near-even defensive EPA.
    • Notre Dame must win by three touchdowns; a UNC backdoor score or late-game variance loses the cover.
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Efficiency converges: Notre Dame averages +0.34 EPA/play and 3.60 PPD versus UNC +0.07 and 2.29.
    • Notre Dame's 52-0 and 39-point wins invite garbage-time contamination; discounting late EPA/PPD could erase the margin edge.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Notre Dame's four-game offense averages +0.34 EPA/play and 55.5% success; North Carolina's three-game defense averages -0.07 EPA/play allowed.
    • North Carolina's three-game offense averages only +0.07 EPA/play; Notre Dame's four-game defense averages -0.07 EPA/play allowed.
    • The most likely loss is a backdoor cover: Notre Dame leads, then reduces aggression or allows late UNC scoring.
  3. Under total 46.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current-season scoring blend projects 43.75 points: ND 42.25 scored/8.25 allowed, UNC 23.33/13.67.
    • Efficiency supports a slower under: ND/UNC defensive EPA allowed -0.07/-0.07; UNC pace 28.90 seconds/play.
    • Extra rest favors North Carolina: UNC last played Sept. 19 while Notre Dame played Sept. 26, potentially improving the Tar Heels' offense.
  4. North Carolina Tar Heels to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 8¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full coverage, Tier 2: both power-conference programs, Notre Dame has 4 current advanced rows, North Carolina 3, and both starting QBs are confirmed.
    • UNC's current defensive EPA allowed (-0.07) is nearly Notre Dame's (-0.07), preserving a home-upset tail despite the large spread.
    • Notre Dame is 4-0 with a +34.0 current average margin; the model may still overstate North Carolina's upset tail.
  5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish first-half spread NO 3.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 11¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's live full-game spread is Notre Dame -24.5; half-game mean anchor is 12.25, updated to approximately 14.1 from the live 14-7 score.
    • 2,357 regular-season CFB games from 2024-26 produce an own absolute-margin SD of 15.91; square-root half scaling gives approximately 11.25, not 7.96.
    • Live first-quarter scoring is noisy; North Carolina can erase the seven-point deficit with one explosive drive before halftime.
  6. Game total under 45
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 45 pushes on exactly 45 total points; under 44.5 loses on that same outcome.
    • Exchange quotes can move or be consumed before filing; the live line_id and size were checked at 6:37 AM PDT.
Show all 11 picks
  1. Game total under 47.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels: under 3 versus over 3; this measure ties, while the thin/deep pairing supplies two-of-three support.
    • Raw stakes are substantial on both sides; backing under, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • The book-level count does not corroborate the direction: 3 under versus 3 over, so this is not a three-measure confirmation.
  2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish spread −21.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Notre Dame averages +0.34 EPA/play, 55.9% success and 3.60 points/drive; North Carolina is at +0.07, 48.3% and 2.29.
    • DraftKings and Pinnacle both center the full-game spread at Notre Dame -21, corroborating the Irish margin baseline.
    • The bet loses on a Notre Dame win by 21 or fewer; the exact 21 cluster is the central failure mode.
  3. Game total under 48
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX team-total anchors are 33.5 Notre Dame plus 10.5 North Carolina, four points below the 48 game rung.
    • Notre Dame's 2026 defense allowed -0.07 EPA/play across 4 games; North Carolina allowed -0.07 across 3.
    • Tempo is not extreme: Notre Dame averaged 30.8 seconds/play and UNC 28.9; UNC's offensive success rate was 48.3%.
    • Most likely loss: Notre Dame's 15.0% explosive-play rate produces an early multi-score game.
  4. North Carolina Tar Heels spread +22
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • latest cfb_predictor projects Notre Dame by 20.00 points; +22 supplies a roughly two-point cushion.
    • Notre Dame averages +0.34 offensive EPA/play versus North Carolina's +0.07; success rates are 55.5% versus 48.3%.
    • Pinnacle's nearby main number was Notre Dame -21 at -105, consistent with taking the extra point at +22.
    • The projection cushion is only 2.00 points, so ordinary college-football variance dominates.
  5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish spread −23.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Notre Dame averaged +0.34 offensive EPA/play versus North Carolina's +0.07 across 2026 games; defenses were nearly identical at -0.07 and -0.07.
    • Notre Dame's current scoring-margin form is +34.0 versus North Carolina's +9.7; the 24.3-point gap supports a 24, 25 point margin projection.
    • Pinnacle's current main spread is Notre Dame -21 at -107; ProphetX offers Notre Dame -23.5 at +123.
    • Most likely loss: Notre Dame wins by 14, 23, creating a backdoor or late-margin miss at -23.5.

Questions

Who won Notre Dame vs. North Carolina?

Notre Dame won 37-26 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.

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