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Ohio State vs. IowaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalKinnick Stadium
Ohio State3–1
31–14Final
Iowa4–0
Score by period
Team1234T
OSU1077731
IOWA600814

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under 47 total 53¢

Why ProphetX CFB Lines likes it: Full coverage: both Big Ten power teams have four 2026 advanced rows; starters are Hank Brown and Julian Sayin.

ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% this season · 286 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 14-8 on this game · +20% return

  1. Iowa Hawkeyes spread +14.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Resting Money +1
    Why 3 models like it
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Model margin mean Ohio State +11.5, SD 17: Iowa +14.5 fair probability 57.0%.
    • Iowa allowed -0.200 EPA/play across four 2026 rows; defensive convergence supports the dog.
    • Ohio State posted +0.353 offensive EPA/play versus Iowa's +0.107; its 16.7% explosive rate can create separation.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are Iowa 3 versus Ohio State 3; the core thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it pairing clears the two-measure test, with raw thin-side stake above the few-hundred-dollar screen.
    • Directional check: backing Iowa +14.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • REFERENCE only: no independent ticket, handle, or order-flow confirmation supports the queue imbalance.
    Long Way Home
    • Iowa's 2026 defense has posted -0.200 EPA/play through four games, better than Ohio State's -0.086.
    • Iowa is 4-0; Ohio State is 3-1, with its only loss a 24-23 result against Texas.
    • Most likely loss: Ohio State's +0.353 offensive EPA/play and 0.167 explosive rate create an early multi-score lead.
  2. Game total under 45.53 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsKey Number CFB, ProphetX Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Key Number CFB
    • Ohio State offense averages +0.353 EPA/play; Iowa defense allows -0.200 EPA/play in 2026.
    • CFB histogram: exact 44 occurred 275/10,967 and exact 45 occurred 313/10,967; key-number density favors the under cushion.
    • Ohio State has scored 180 points in four games; explosive offense can clear 46 quickly.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Ohio State's defense allowed -0.0857 EPA/play across four 2026 games; Iowa's offense is -0.0504 EPA/play across three FBS games.
    • Iowa's FBS offense has only a 45.2% success rate and 8.6% explosive-play rate, limiting sustained scoring.
    • Likeliest loss path: Ohio State's explosive offense creates short fields and Iowa contributes 17-plus points, reaching 46 or more.
    Kickoff Ledger
    • Iowa averages 29.1 seconds per play and has scored 40, 16, 55, and 20 points; its latest total was 20, 19.
    • Iowa’s +0.107 offensive EPA/play meets Ohio State’s -0.086 defensive EPA/play allowed.
    • Ohio State averages +0.353 offensive EPA/play and 3.86 points per drive, so explosive plays can beat the under alone.
  3. Ohio State Buckeyes spread −14.52 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at −104 on FanDuel

    2 modelsKickoff Ledger, Saturday Board Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Kickoff Ledger
    • Ohio State averages +0.353 offensive EPA/play; Iowa allows -0.199 defensive EPA/play.
    • Iowa’s +0.107 offensive EPA/play faces Ohio State’s -0.086 defensive EPA/play allowed.
    • Iowa home field and late-game variance can keep a two-score favorite inside.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Four-game 2026 sample: Ohio State averages 0.353 EPA/play, 55.1% success and 16.7% explosives; Iowa averages 0.107, 48.7% and 13.5%.
    • PFF 2026 card: Ohio State offense 92.3 and defense 92.4; Iowa offense 77.6 and defense 92.0, the offense/defense split favors Ohio State margin.
    • Most likely loss: Iowa's slow, home-field script keeps Ohio State inside 14.5 despite the efficiency gap.
  4. Under 47 total
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full coverage: both Big Ten power teams have four 2026 advanced rows; starters are Hank Brown and Julian Sayin.
    • Adjusted possession inputs converge lower: Iowa averages 2.27 points per drive versus Ohio State's 3.86 baseline.
    • Pinnacle quotes 46, not 47; the one-point reference mismatch adds uncertainty.
  5. Ohio State Buckeyes first-half spread NO 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle full-game Ohio State -14.5 implies a 7.25-point first-half mean anchor.
    • 2,454 completed 2024, 26 CFB games produced SD 15.78; sqrt-half scaling gives first-half SD 11.16.
    • PROJECTION edge class: At the exact 6.5 rung, P(Ohio State wins by over 6.5) is 52.7%; NO fair probability is 47.3%.
    • Only four 2026 games per team; opponent quality makes the mean projection uncertain.
  6. Bo Jackson over 72.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 9 of Bo Jackson's last 10 regular-season appearances cleared 72.5 rushing yards; the span averaged 88.5.
    • Iowa's defense has allowed -0.1994 EPA per play, fifth-best among 2026 teams with at least three games.
Show all 18 picks
  1. Game total under 46
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ohio State's four-game offense: +0.353 EPA/play, 55.5% success, 16.7% explosive; Iowa's four-game defense allows -0.200 EPA/play.
    • Iowa's four-game offense is +0.107 EPA/play and 48.7% successful against Ohio State's -0.086 defensive EPA allowed.
    • Recent five-game pace is 13.53 seconds/play for Ohio State versus Iowa's 29.83; both defenses grade above 92 in the current PFF card.
    • Most likely loss: Ohio State's 16.7% explosive-play rate creates short fields and pushes the Buckeyes into the mid-30s.
  2. Game total over 45.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current-season scoring/allowance blend projects 49.0 points versus 45.5, a 7.7% projection edge.
    • Both teams went under in 6 of their last 10 posted totals, satisfying the consistency gate despite mixed season samples.
    • Iowa's recent 31.82 seconds per play suggests pace drag, but both defenses post negative EPA allowed.
    • Ohio State's last-five totals went under only 2/5; its 16.7% explosive rate can create late scoring.
  3. 1st-quarter total over 7.5 points
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four-game points-per-drive averages are 3.856 for Ohio State and 2.269 for Iowa, with 68.5 and 67.0 offensive plays per game.
    • Both opening scripts show positive PROE and above-average success in the supplied sample; Ohio State's explosive rate is .167.
    • EPA matchup differentials are positive for both offenses: approximately +0.553 Ohio State and +0.193 Iowa versus the opposing defenses.
    • One-quarter variance is extreme: a single three-and-out, missed field goal, or busted coverage can move the result by a full score.
  4. Ohio State wins 1st HalfFavorite
    +37%Won

    Taken at 73¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four-game average: Ohio State +0.353 offensive EPA/play and 55.1% success rate versus Iowa +0.107 and 48.7%.
    • Matchup EPA differential favors Ohio State +0.553 versus Iowa's +0.193 against the opposing defense.
    • Ohio State's recent PROE is +0.133 with a .167 explosive-play rate; Iowa is +0.115 and .135, supporting an aggressive opening script.
    • Iowa is 4-0 at home and its four-game defensive EPA-allowed average is a strong -0.200.
  5. Game total under 47.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 47.5 wins at 47; adjacent under 47 only pushes at 47.
    • Exactly 47 occurred in 203 of 10,371 CFB games, an empirical 1.957% push-to-win state.
    • ProphetX charges only 1.06 devigged percentage points more for under 47.5 than under 47, below the 1.957% frequency.
    • The relative gap is only about 0.90 percentage points; estimation and market noise can dominate.
  6. Ohio State Buckeyes spread −14
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ohio State -14 pushes at exactly 14; Ohio State -13.5 wins that margin.
    • The all-CFB historical 14-point frequency may not match this Ohio State, Iowa matchup.
  7. Iowa Hawkeyes spread +18
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Iowa's 2026 defense allows -0.1998 EPA/play; its 92.0 PFF defense grade nearly matches Ohio State's 92.4.
    • CFB season_type 2/3 histogram shows 375 games decided by exactly 17, the key protection band captured by +18.
    • Ohio State's +0.3531 offensive EPA/play creates blowout risk, but Iowa's defensive profile supports a margin projection inside this rung.
    • Ohio State's offense is the clear efficiency outlier; explosive plays can turn this into a 19-plus-point result.
  8. Iowa Hawkeyes total under 45.5
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Long WeekDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Iowa allows -0.199 defensive EPA/play; Ohio State allows -0.086, supporting a compressed scoring environment.
    • Iowa averages 0.107 offensive EPA/play and 2.27 points per drive; quality-game outputs were 20 and 16 points.
    • Ohio State's 0.353 offensive EPA/play is strong, but Iowa held Michigan to 19 points and won last week.
    • Ohio State averages 0.353 offensive EPA/play and 3.86 points per drive; explosive efficiency can break the under quickly.
  9. Game first-half total over 23.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • DERIVED REFERENCE, not a cross-rung comparison.
    • Possession reconstruction gives 25.68 seconds/play blended; 11.1 pace-derived first-half drives versus 23.0 full-game drives.
    • Ohio State's recorded pace_sec_per_play is malformed at 3.13, 5.15; possession_seconds/off_plays is the reconstruction.
  10. Game total under 45
    0%Push

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 four-game sample: Iowa runs 29.09 seconds per play, .1147 PROE, .1349 explosive rate and .4872 success rate.
    • Ohio State's defense has allowed -0.0857 EPA per play in the current four-game sample; Iowa's offense is the weaker half of this matchup.
    • PFF's current grades show a 92.4 Ohio State defense and 92.0 Iowa defense; the venue's 45 total equals its 30.5 plus 14.5 team-total anchors, so the case is projection rather than ladder mismatch.
    • Most likely loss: Ohio State's .1666 explosive rate and .5506 success rate create enough short fields to reach 31-plus points.
  11. Game total under 54.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pregame sharp total was 46.5; at 7-3 with 8:42 left in Q1, the live 54.5 requires a sustained scoring upgrade.
    • Baseline projection using the 46.5 anchor is roughly 50-53 points after accounting for the 10 early points.
    • Early scoring includes an Ohio State short-field touchdown after an Iowa fumble, a volatile event unlikely to be a complete-game baseline.
    • A second early turnover or explosive play can destroy the under before the baseline matters.
  12. Iowa Hawkeyes to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 16¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Iowa is 4-0 with a +24.8 recent scoring margin and home field; the upset case is structurally credible despite Ohio State's strength.
    • Most likely loss: Ohio State wins by 1-14, cashing the existing Iowa spread position but not this moneyline.

Questions

Who won Ohio State vs. Iowa?

The Ohio State won 31–14 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.

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