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Old Dominion vs. Georgia StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalCenter Parc Stadium
Old Dominion1–3
10–42Final
Georgia State3–1
Score by period
Team1234T
ODU307010
GAST141414042

Top model pick, graded

Won

Georgia State Panthers 1st-half winner 50¢

Why Front Runner likes it: PROJECTION; DERIVED REFERENCE with a raised bar: no independent sharp first-half quote, so full-game Pinnacle -131/+116 was only directional input.

Front RunnerDown 19% this season · 62 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 10-5 on this game · +22% return

  1. Georgia State Panthers to win6 models agree
    +75%Won

    Taken at −134 on FanDuel

    6 modelsD1 Winner, Saturday Board Pairs +4
    Why 6 models like it
    D1 Winner
    • Georgia State's recent offense leads ODU in EPA/play, 0.1145 to -0.0045, and success rate, .4847 to .4150.
    • Georgia State holds the latest team-grade edge, 91.6 overall to 80.3, including an 86.6 to 43.2 passing-grade gap.
    • Quinn Henicle's current availability is unconfirmed; Ryan Huff made his first career start last week as Henicle's injury replacement.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Matchup split: Georgia State offense +0.2038 EPA/play versus ODU defense allowing +0.0425; ODU offense +0.0091 versus Georgia State allowing -0.0336.
    • PFF 2026 overall grades favor Georgia State 91.6, 80.3, with offense 78.7, 57.0.
    • Most likely loss: ODU's quarterback transition produces early explosives while Georgia State repeats its Week 3 defensive lapse against UCF.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • Georgia State is 3-1 with a +70 point differential; Old Dominion is 1-3 with a -31 differential.
    • Georgia State leads the latest PFF team grade 91.6 to 80.3; PWP Composite Grade: 74/100, qualifying edge.
    • Old Dominion's recent defense allowed -0.1571 EPA per play, a strong counter to Georgia State's offense.
    Resting Money
    • Directional check: backing Georgia State, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: both sides show 3 levels.
  2. Old Dominion Monarchs +2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  3. Georgia State Panthers 1st-half winner
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; DERIVED REFERENCE with a raised bar: no independent sharp first-half quote, so full-game Pinnacle -131/+116 was only directional input.
    • 2026 first-half margins: Georgia State averaged +14.3 points across four games; Old Dominion averaged -11.0.
    • Georgia State led Old Dominion in season-to-date off EPA/play (.2035 vs .0091), success rate (.5107 vs .3984), and explosiveness (.1657 vs .1062).
    • Four first-half observations per team are a thin sample, and opponent adjustment remains imperfect.
  4. Georgia State Panthers spread −2.5
    +94%Won

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • GSU averages +0.2025 offensive EPA/play vs ODU +0.0082, with a 51.1% vs 40.2% success rate.
    • GSU owns the defensive EPA edge: -0.0342 allowed/play versus ODU's +0.0418.
    • Cameran Brown is confirmed as GSU's quarterback; Ryan Huff is expected for ODU with Quinn Henicle injured.
    • Biggest risk: 50% shower/thunderstorm probability could create turnovers or a delay-driven game script.
  5. Georgia State Panthers spread +1
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX prices Georgia State moneyline -127 while its +1 spread is -132.
    • PROJECTION support, 2026 four-game sample: Georgia State averages +0.204 EPA/play and 50.7% success versus Old Dominion's +0.001 and 39.8%.
    • Georgia State's defense allows -0.034 EPA/play versus Old Dominion's +0.042; explosive rates are 16.6% versus 10.6%.
    • Most likely loss: Old Dominion's offense turns its road matchup into explosive plays or Georgia State's defensive variance repeats its +0.254 EPA allowed against UCF.
  6. Old Dominion +3.5 (half-point, no push; exact Georgia State three-point win grades a win)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Old Dominion +3.5 has no push; Georgia State winning by exactly 3 grades as a win.
    • Georgia State margin exactly 3: 443 of 4,547 CFB finals, or 9.743%, in 2021-25.
    • The 9.743% frequency is pooled CFB history, not a Georgia State-specific projection.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Old Dominion Monarchs spread +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional coherence check: backing Old Dominion +1.5, which is thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. ProphetX price is +111.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: both sides have 3 levels; this is a two-measure signal, not a full three-measure confirmation.
  2. Game total under 51, whole-number rung pushes at exactly 51
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 51 pushes at exactly 51; adjacent under 50.5 loses at 51.
    • ProphetX charges 47.85¢ (+109) for under 51 versus 46.51¢ (+115) for under 50.5: only a 1.34¢ premium for the push protection.
    • The 3.236% rate is broad CFB history, not matchup-specific; exact-total mass can vary substantially.
  3. Georgia State Panthers spread −2
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Georgia State is 3-1 with a +17.5 average margin over its last four; Old Dominion is 1-3 at -7.8.
    • Last week Georgia State beat Northern Illinois 35-14, while Old Dominion lost to James Madison 46-20.
    • Georgia State's latest offensive EPA/play was +0.118 with a 47.4% success rate; Old Dominion's was -0.173 with a 34.3% success rate.
    • Old Dominion went 10-3 last season, so the current four-game split may invite regression.
  4. Game total under 51.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • the ProphetX full-game total is 51.5, while its own quoted team totals sum to 51.0 (Georgia State 26.5 plus Old Dominion 24.5).
    • Old Dominion averaged 39.8% offensive success and 10.6% explosiveness across four 2026 games.
    • Georgia State’s defense allowed -0.0336 EPA/play; Old Dominion averaged only 1.41 points per drive.
    • Most likely loss: Georgia State’s 51.1% offensive success and 16.6% explosiveness produce a pace spike or short fields.

Questions

Who won Old Dominion vs. Georgia State?

The Georgia State won 42–10 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.

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