Richmond vs. LafayetteFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalFisher Stadium
Richmond4-1
40–31Final
Lafayette1-3
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RICH | 7 | 10 | 14 | 9 | 40 |
| LAFA | 14 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 31 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 44.5 52¢
Why Long Way Home likes it: Richmond's five 2026 completed-game totals average 47.6; Lafayette's four average 56.8.
Long Way HomeDown 4% this season · 3706 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-4 on this game · −62% return
- Lafayette Leopards spread +6.5−100%Lost
Taken at +100 on FanDuel
2 modelsKickoff Ledger, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Kickoff Ledger- Fair spread estimate: Richmond -3.5, creating roughly three points of cushion versus the -6.5 market.
- Lafayette's offense has the better 2026 efficiency profile: -0.09 EPA/play versus Richmond's -0.30.
- The efficiency sample is only two 2026 games per team, so the fair spread is fragile.
Long Way Home- Edge class: PROJECTION, through two 2026 games, Lafayette averages 1.30 points per drive versus Richmond's 0.54.
- Richmond's -0.27 offensive EPA/play trails Lafayette's -0.09; the favorite's offense has not earned a wide-margin profile.
- Two-game samples are thin; opponent quality and schedule adjustments are not established.
- Game total under 43−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Under 43 wins at 42 or fewer, pushes at exactly 43; under 42.5 loses at exactly 43.
- ProphetX under 43 is 39.68c (+152) versus under 42.5 at 39.37c (+154), only 0.31c extra.
- Historical exact-total frequency is unconditional; this matchup’s scoring distribution is unknown.
- Lafayette Leopards +6 spread−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Lafayette +6 pushes if Richmond wins by exactly 6; Lafayette +6.5 loses that outcome.
- ProphetX +6 is 53.27c (-114) versus +6.5 at 51.92c (-108), only 1.35c extra.
- Historical margin frequency is unconditional; matchup-specific six-point mass is unknown.
- Game total over 44.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Richmond's five 2026 completed-game totals average 47.6; Lafayette's four average 56.8.
- Both defenses show positive EPA allowed: Lafayette +0.27 and Richmond +0.23 per play.
- Most likely loss: Richmond's offense stalls again after producing only 13 points against Furman, keeping the game below 45.
Questions
Who won Richmond vs. Lafayette?
Richmond won 40-31 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.