Samford vs. UABFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalProtective Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAMF | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| UAB | 10 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 33 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 54.5 −110
Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: Model fair total 50.5, 51.5, 3, 4 points below the 54.5 market.
Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-4 on this game · −2% return
- Game total under 54.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
2 modelsKickoff Ledger, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Kickoff Ledger- Model fair total 50.5, 51.5, 3, 4 points below the 54.5 market.
- UAB averages 2.13 points per drive, 0.461 success rate, and 28.0 seconds per play across four games.
- Samford scored 45 last week and Johnson completed 22 of 26 for 222 yards and two touchdowns.
Long Way Home- PROJECTION, UAB has scored 23, 26, 14 and 24 points in four 2026 games (21.75 ppg); three stayed below 27.
- UAB's four current offensive EPA/play results average approximately -0.04, with a 46.1% average success rate.
- Most likely loss: UAB reaches 40-plus and Samford adds 15-plus in a one-sided game.
- Samford Bulldogs spread +30.5+94%Won
Taken at −106 on FanDuel
2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- PWP Composite Grade 71/100 (B): clears the 70-point publication bar.
- PWP projects UAB by 27.5; the 3.0-point cushion versus 30.5 is a 9.8% projection gap.
- The FCS-to-FBS class gap and UAB home field can still produce a runaway margin.
Long Way Home- Edge class: PROJECTION, Samford posted +0.285 EPA/play and a 51.9% success rate in its latest game.
- UAB's four-game 2026 average is -0.045 EPA/play, with only 0.461 success rate and a +0.084 EPA/play defensive allowance.
- Most likely loss: UAB's FBS size and depth create early explosive plays, producing a 31-point-plus margin.
- UAB Blazers spread −31.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, Saturday Board PairsWhy 2 models like it
Key Number CFB- The -30.5 to -31.5 move crosses no 3, 7, or 10 key number; historical exact ±31 margins are 229 of 10,969 games, versus 994 at 3, 859 at 7, and 461 at 10.
- Pinnacle's reference is UAB -31 at -108, corroborating a roughly 31-point market projection rather than a materially shorter favorite.
- UAB's 2026 offense is only -0.045 EPA/play with +0.083 defensive EPA allowed; this is a key-number price edge, not a dominant efficiency profile.
Saturday Board Pairs- UAB’s FBS-vs-FCS strength and efficiency mismatch supports a margin beyond the 30.5 reference number.
- UAB’s 2026 PFF pass-rush grade is 78.2 versus Samford’s 59.1 pass-block grade; pressure is the clearest cover path.
- FCS coverage cap: Samford has only one current advanced row, so this is LEAN rather than recommended.
- Game total over 53.5−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The contract has about $3,525 traded, materially more liquid than the game's novelty markets.
- Samford's recent offense EPA/play is -0.271 across three charted games.
- Game total over 55−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX over 55 is 50.00¢ (+100); adjacent over 55.5 is 48.08¢ (+108).
- Over 55 refunds at exactly 55; over 55.5 loses at exactly 55.
Questions
Who won Samford vs. UAB?
The UAB won 33–14 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.