South Dakota State vs. Illinois StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalHancock Stadium
South Dakota State4–1
31–14Final
Illinois State4–1
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOUT | 7 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 31 |
| ILL | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSouth Dakota State Jackrabbits to win 54¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-0 on this game · +89% return
- South Dakota State Jackrabbits to win+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsCFB Heater, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
CFB Heater- The target-game positions are open, but exact entry timestamps are opaque; the momentum may be older than the current snapshot.
Long Way Home- Illinois State's latest row was +0.1195 offensively and +0.2743 defensively; both efficiency directions favor South Dakota State.
- South Dakota State's latest two wins were 42-7 and 27-20; Illinois State's latest result was a 28-21 loss to Northern Iowa.
- Most likely loss path: Illinois State's home field and a turnover-driven one-score game overturn the efficiency gap.
- Game total under 55.5+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Under hit rate is 65% combined across the teams’ last 10 games: SDSU 5/10, Illinois State 8/10.
- Both teams are 3/5 under 55.5 in their last five; season rates combine to 16/25.
- SDSU’s L10 under rate is only 50%, below the preferred consistency threshold.
- South Dakota State Jackrabbits spread −5.5+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; NO REFERENCE, SDSU averages 0.1447 offensive EPA/play versus Illinois State's 0.1359, while its defensive EPA allowed is 0.0205 versus 0.1864.
- SDSU's 14.6% explosive-play rate is nearly double Illinois State's 7.7%; SDSU just produced 597 yards in a 42-7 win.
- The main market is only around SDSU -1.5; this projection targets the underpriced margin tail rather than repeating the held moneyline.
- Most likely loss: SDSU wins narrowly, or Illinois State wins at home, leaving the margin below six.
Questions
Who won South Dakota State vs. Illinois State?
The South Dakota State won 31–14 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.