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Stanford vs. Wake ForestFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAllegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Stanford2–2
3–57Final
Wake Forest3–1
Score by period
Team1234T
STAN03003
WAKE1514141457

Top model pick, graded

Won

Wake Forest Demon Deacons spread −14.5 50¢

Why Drift likes it: Power rating: Wake projects -16.8; net EPA/play is +0.0525 versus Stanford -0.3090.

DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 17-4 on this game · +52% return

  1. Wake Forest Demon Deacons spread −14.54 models agreeHigh conviction
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsDrift, Key Number CFB +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Drift
    • Power rating: Wake projects -16.8; net EPA/play is +0.0525 versus Stanford -0.3090.
    • Wake leads 2026 efficiency: offensive EPA +0.2057 vs +0.0238, success 48.9% vs 45.9%, explosives 14.0% vs 11.3%.
    • Four-game current-season samples leave EPA and explosiveness vulnerable to opponent and variance effects.
    Key Number CFB
    • Wake's 2026 offense EPA/play is +0.206 versus Stanford's +0.024; defensive EPA allowed is +0.153 versus +0.333.
    • 2026 PFF card: Wake overall grade 85.7 versus Stanford 71.8; defense 82.5 versus 66.7, with an 82.9-to-66.5 coverage gap.
    • Wake's recent wins were often competitive, including 30-27 over Louisville; a late Stanford score can create a backdoor cover.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Wake's 4-game 2026 profile leads Stanford by 0.182 EPA/play on offense and allows 0.180 fewer defensive EPA/play.
    • Wake also leads success rate 48.9% to 45.9% and explosive rate 14.0% to 11.3%; the matchup supports a margin beyond the main number.
    • Four-game sample; Stanford's schedule includes Miami, Duke and Georgia Tech, while opponent-quality adjustment is not modeled here.
    Long Way Home
    • Wake Forest's four 2026 scoring margins average +3.5; Stanford's average -12.5, a 16-point form gap against a 14.5-point spread.
    • Wake's current-season offense posted positive EPA/play in three of four games, including +0.4051 versus Akron and +0.2694 versus Purdue.
    • Stanford's latest game produced +0.2677 offensive EPA/play and a 34-27 win over Georgia Tech; that offense can keep the margin below 15.
  2. Game total over 54.53 models agree
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    3 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Resting Money +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP Composite Grade 74/100 (Grade B): clears the 70-point bar.
    • The latest five-game windows went over 54.5 in 7 of 10 team-games combined (70%).
    • Stanford's recent offense averaged only 0.047 EPA/play, and Wake's defense allowed 0.1591 EPA/play.
    Resting Money
    • Directional check: backing Over 54.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • ProphetX depth is venue self-reference, not an independent confirmation; stale or correlated orders can mimic patient demand.
    Key Number CFB
    • Wake's 2026 offense EPA/play is +0.206; Stanford's defense allows +0.333 EPA/play.
    • Wake averages 31.5 points through four games; Stanford's four-game average is 21.0.
    • Most likely loss: Stanford's offense stalls and Wake fails to create enough explosive plays, leaving 54 or fewer points.
  3. Over total 54
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total 57.0: Stanford 21.0 PF/33.5 PA and Wake 31.5 PF/28.0 PA across four games.
    • Efficiency favors scoring: Wake +0.206 offensive EPA/play; Stanford allows +0.333 defensive EPA/play.
    • Pace/explosiveness support over: 24.1 and 26.855 seconds/play; Stanford/Wake explosive rates 11.3%/14.0%.
    • Most likely loss: Stanford stalls after its 6-point and 7-point performances, leaving the game at 53 or fewer.
  4. 3-leg parlay
    +61%Won

    Taken at −163

    Short YardageUp 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wake Forest: -650 implies 86.7%; model 91.5% (+4.8 points), with 2026 four-game grades 85.7 overall and 82.5 defense.
    • Wisconsin: -360 implies 78.3%; model 84.5% (+6.2 points), with 92.8 overall and 91.3 defense grades against Michigan State's 84.8 defense.
    • North Dakota State: -1050 implies 91.3%; model 95.0% (+3.7 points), backed by +0.266 offensive EPA/play, 0.518 success rate, and 2.92 points/drive.
    • All three current-season samples are only four games; estimates use conservative uncertainty bands rather than optimistic form.
  5. Under 54 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current possession baseline: Stanford 69.8 plays and Wake 65.5; about 21.5 combined drives at current pace.
    • Current points-per-drive averages are 1.61 Stanford and 3.03 Wake; the distribution projects 51.1 points, below 54.
    • Stanford's 11.3% and Wake's 14.1% explosive-play rates support an under with a manageable tail rather than a low-total projection.
    • Wake's 14.1% explosive rate can turn a normal possession count into a quick over.
  6. Stanford Cardinal under 19.5 team points
    +96%Won

    Taken at −104 on FanDuel

    Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted EPA/play is -0.1293: Stanford offense +0.0238 minus Wake defensive allowance +0.1532.
    • Stanford's 58.8% pass rate and Wake's 26.86-second clock could create enough extra drives for 20 points.
Show all 16 picks
  1. Wake Forest Demon Deacons −14.5
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wake's +0.206 offensive EPA/play and 3.03 points/drive face Stanford's +0.333 defensive EPA allowed.
    • Stanford's offense is only +0.024 EPA/play against Wake's +0.153 defensive EPA allowed.
    • Raw scoring margins favor Wake by 16.0 points per game; home field supports a fair line near Wake -17.5.
    • Stanford is coming off a 34-27 win over Georgia Tech and can stay inside the number with explosive plays.
  2. Wake Forest Demon Deacons to winFavorite
    +15%Won

    Taken at −650 on DraftKings

    D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Efficiency family favors Wake: +0.206 offensive EPA/play vs +0.024 and +0.153 defensive EPA allowed vs +0.333 for Stanford.
    • QB/injury family converges: confirmed starters Gio Lopez and Davis Warren; Stanford has six CBs listed Out, plus multiple OL losses.
    • Wake has the home venue, a 3-1 start, and a 16.849-point model margin projection.
    • The 4.04-point model edge barely clears the 4.0-point gate and is sensitive to calibration error.
  3. Wake Forest Demon Deacons spread −15
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • game 2026 sample: Wake offense +0.2057 EPA/play versus Stanford +0.0238; Stanford defense allowed +0.3329.
    • Wake success rate .4890 versus Stanford .4593, and explosive rate .1404 versus .1132.
    • Wake defense allowed +0.1532 EPA/play versus Stanford +0.3329, widening the efficiency mismatch toward the home favorite.
    • Stanford's sample is only four games and includes a +0.2677 EPA/play outlier against Georgia Tech.
  4. 1st-quarter total over 10.5 points
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects approximately 12.5-13.5 first-quarter points from four-game points/drive averages of 3.03 for Wake and 1.61 for Stanford.
    • Recent pace supports early possessions: Stanford averages 24.1 seconds/play and Wake 26.7, with roughly 5-6 projected first-half drives per team.
    • Wake's +0.206 offensive EPA/play and 14.0% explosive rate provide the primary scoring engine against Stanford's +0.333 defensive EPA/play allowed.
    • A first quarter has only roughly 2-3 possessions per side; one three-and-out, missed kick, or explosive score dominates the result.
  5. Wake Forest wins 1st HalfFavorite
    +35%Won

    Taken at 74¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four-game averages favor Wake: +0.206 offensive EPA/play and 48.9% success versus Stanford's +0.024 and 45.9%.
    • Wake averages 3.03 points/drive and 14.0% explosive rate; Stanford's defense has allowed +0.333 EPA/play across the same four-game sample.
    • QB gate cleared: Gio Lopez was named Wake's 2026 starter and led the last game with 19 attempts; Davis Warren led Stanford with 36.
    • Only four 2026 games per team; opponent adjustment and first-half translation remain noisy.
  6. Stanford Cardinal spread +15
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • book_levels are tied 3-3, so two of three measures agree. Raw quote stakes are several hundred dollars or more. ProphetX quote: -109 American / 52.15¢ claim price. Directional coherence: backing Stanford +15, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate the Stanford side: 3 versus 3.
  7. Game total over 54
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • four-game 2026 rates show Wake offense at 0.2057 EPA/play against Stanford defense allowing 0.3329 EPA/play.
    • Wake's 0.1404 explosive-play rate plus Stanford's 24.1-second pace supports a higher-scoring game.
    • Stanford's own offense is only 0.0238 EPA/play through four games; a stalled Cardinal offense can leave Wake carrying the total.
  8. Wake Forest Demon Deacons first-half spread NO 6.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 9¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1,853 FBS finals from 2024-25 produced a 14.77-point margin SD; square-root half scaling gives 10.44.
    • Wake leads 15-0 at 2:19 of the first quarter; the four-game 2026 sample showed a +1.42 points-per-drive differential, projecting roughly an 18.5-point halftime margin.
    • At the exact 6.5 rung, the mean-plus-SD distribution gives approximately 12.5% to Wake finishing at 6.5 or fewer; Kalshi's venue-checked NO price is 9¢.
    • The model has only four pregame games per team, and the current 15-0 score is a noisy partial-game observation.
  9. Game total over 57.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection, Wake is at +0.7906 EPA/play, 66.7% success, 33.3% explosive rate, and 4.67 points/drive in live play.
    • Stanford is at -0.2592 offensive EPA/play, 20% success, and 0% explosive rate; Wake's offense is positioned to supply most remaining scoring.
    • ProphetX quote was read at 9:41 AM PDT from the live board; edge class: PROJECTION, reference label: SHARP REFERENCE.
    • Most likely loss: Wake protects a 15-0 lead, shortens the game, and Stanford remains scoreless or near scoreless.
  10. Game total under 54.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 four-game averages show Stanford 24.08 seconds/play and .459 success versus Wake's .153 defensive EPA allowed.
    • Wake averages 26.86 seconds/play, .1325 PROE, .140 explosive rate; Stanford has allowed .333 defensive EPA/play, but its offense averages only .113 explosive rate.
    • Stanford's 21.0 points/game plus Wake Forest's 31.5 points/game average 52.5 through four 2026 games; PFF grades Wake defense 82.5 and Stanford offense 66.2.
    • Most likely loss: Wake's .489 offensive success and Stanford's .333 defensive EPA allowed produce efficient explosive scoring.

Questions

Who won Stanford vs. Wake Forest?

The Wake Forest won 57–3 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.

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