Syracuse vs. UConnFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalPratt & Whitney Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYR | 6 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 42 |
| CONN | 7 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 7 | 41 |
Top model pick, graded
WonRyder Treadway over 2.5 receptions +126
Why Touch Share Saturday likes it: Target share rose 9.1% → 14.3% → 20.0% → 18.8% across four games; touch-share CV is 28.7%.
Touch Share SaturdayDown 18% this season · 61 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-2 on this game · +6% return
- Ryder Treadway over 2.5 receptions+126%Won
Taken at +126 on BetOnline
Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Target share rose 9.1% → 14.3% → 20.0% → 18.8% across four games; touch-share CV is 28.7%.
- Yards per target fell 11.0 → 2.7 → 5.8 → 4.5 while target share nearly doubled from first to last.
- PFF charting supports the role: 90.3% route rate and 56 routes through four games.
- Most likely loss: UConn keeps its balanced offense or leads at home, Treadway's share reverts to three targets and he finishes with two receptions.
- Game total under 50.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Syracuse defense has allowed -0.0647 EPA/play; UConn offense is strong at +0.1835 but faces its best resistance yet.
- Season pace is 23.1 seconds/play for Syracuse and 28.2 for UConn; the blended 25.6 pace points to fewer possessions than this total requires.
- Syracuse has 16 days' rest versus UConn's seven, aiding defensive preparation after recent Syracuse totals of 40 and 45.
- UConn averages 34.8 points and +0.1835 offensive EPA/play; explosive drives can clear 50.5 quickly.
- UConn Huskies spread +6.5+96%Won
Taken at −104 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP Composite Grade 71/100; projected cover probability 56.0% versus 51.0% implied, a +5.0-point edge.
- UConn leads recent 10-game offense EPA/play 0.2045 to Syracuse's -0.0312.
- UConn's recent points per drive is 2.823 versus Syracuse's 1.424; home-field cushion adds value at the key +6.5 number.
- L10 ATS hit rate and opening-line movement could not be verified from the timed-out ATS warehouse query.
- Syracuse Orange first-half spread NO 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle full-game spread is Syracuse -6.5; the first-half mean scales to roughly Syracuse +3.25.
- 2,357 FBS regular-season games from 2024-2026 produce SD_full 15.91; sqrt-half scaling gives SD_1H about 11.25, not 7.95.
- exact +3 margins occurred 200 times (8.5%) in the sample; the 3.5 rung sits immediately beyond a measured college key-number mass.
- the 50.9% estimate is only about 0.9 points above the executable price; this is capped at LEAN, not RECOMMENDED.
Questions
Who won Syracuse vs. UConn?
The Syracuse won 42–41 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.