Tennessee State vs. Western IllinoisFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalHanson Field

Tennessee State1–3

21–28Final

Western Illinois2–3

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
TENN	7	7	7	0	21
WEST	3	7	0	18	28

Top model pick, graded

Won

Western Illinois Leathernecks to win 82¢

Why CFB Heater likes it: Polymarket US moneyline is open and accepting; Western Illinois is the NO side at 82¢.

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 3-1 on this game · +23% return

Western Illinois Leathernecks to winFavorite
+22%Won
Taken at 82¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Polymarket US moneyline is open and accepting; Western Illinois is the NO side at 82¢.
- Western Illinois has only a 2-3 recent record and its latest charted offense was just 0.016 EPA/play.
Game total under 53.5
+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 48.5-point PWP projection is 5.0 points, or 9.3%, below the 53.5 threshold.
- The combined recent sample stayed under 53.5 in 5 of 9 completed games; Western Illinois is 3-for-5 under.
- Season scoring averages are Tennessee State 14.8 scored/36.3 allowed and Western Illinois 32.6/23.2.
- Western Illinois's 65-14 result and Tennessee State's 3-63 result make averages opponent-sensitive.
Tennessee State Tigers spread +12.5
+91%Won
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Fair spread: Western Illinois -9.0; the posted -12.5 gives roughly 3.5 points of cushion.
- Season scoring margins are WIU -2.5 per game and TSU -21.5, with TSU's margin heavily depressed by Georgia and Alabama A&M blowouts.
- Both teams played September 26, so rest is even at seven days; Daylin Lee and Kennedy McGill are named starters in current previews.
- WIU is at home and has a 65, 14 win in its schedule; explosive plays could turn this into a comfortable favorite cover.
Western Illinois Leathernecks spread −12.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PROJECTION; 2026 EPA/game data: WIU allowed 0.076 EPA/play versus Tennessee State's 0.689, a major defensive matchup gap.
- WIU's offense averaged -0.013 EPA/play across two games; Tennessee State was -0.333 in its lone 2026 sample.
- Pinnacle also had Western Illinois -12.5, at -115; ProphetX offers the same main number at -106 American.
- Tennessee State's defensive sample is only one game, and it came against Georgia; opponent adjustment could materially shrink the gap.

Questions

Who won Tennessee State vs. Western Illinois?

The Western Illinois won 28–21 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.