Texas Southern vs. Florida AtlanticFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalFlagler Credit Union Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| FAU | 28 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 66 |
Top model pick, graded
WonFlorida Atlantic Owls spread −52.5 40¢
Why Saturday Board Pairs likes it: 2026 PFF grades favor FAU 81.6 overall, 73.7 offense and 70.9 defense versus TSU at 61.4, 59.8 and 62.2.
Saturday Board PairsDown 4% this season · 567 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-6 on this game · −64% return
- Game total under 62.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
2 modelsKickoff Ledger, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Kickoff Ledger- Fair total 58.0, a 4.5-point cushion versus the 62.5 market.
- Florida Atlantic's 2026 offense averages 0.083 EPA/play; Texas Southern averages 0.032 EPA/play in logged games.
- FAU can score quickly against a Texas Southern defense allowing 0.434 EPA/play; a 50-point home output breaks the ticket.
Long Way Home- PROJECTION edge; SHARP REFERENCE: 2026 scoring averages are FAU 30.0 and Texas Southern 26.5, a 56.5 combined baseline versus 62.5.
- FAU's 62.5 main total is -111 at Pinnacle; ProphetX offers the same number at -104 (50.98¢), a better price.
- Most likely loss: FAU converts its size mismatch into 50-plus points while Texas Southern contributes enough for a shootout.
- Texas Southern Tigers spread +47.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Kickoff LedgerWhy 2 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- PWP Composite Grade: 76/100 (B), clearing the 70 fire threshold.
- CFB predictor projects Florida Atlantic by 33.1 points; the +47.5 spread creates a 14.4-point cushion.
- Florida Atlantic is 3-1 and Texas Southern is 1-3; a talent gap can produce a late runaway.
Kickoff Ledger- My fair spread is Florida Atlantic -40.5, giving Texas Southern a 7-point cushion versus the market's -47.5.
- Texas Southern's offense has averaged 0.46 success rate in logged 2026 games, while FAU's defense has allowed 0.201 EPA/play.
- Texas Southern's defense has allowed 0.434 EPA/play, creating a real blowout path for FAU.
- Game total under 63−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- under 63 pushes at exactly 63 points, while adjacent under 63.5 wins there.
- CFB history: exactly 63 total points occurred 205 of 11,003 games, an explicit 1.863% push mass.
- ProphetX under 63 is 52.15¢ (-109), versus 53.92¢ (-117) for under 63.5; the push-protected rung is 8 American points cheaper.
- The 1.863% figure is pooled historical NCAAF frequency, not a matchup-specific projection.
- Texas Southern Tigers spread +44.5−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX main is FAU -45.5; Pinnacle/DK reference FAU -47 to -47.5.
- FAU leads current form, but the model treats the extra half-point loss at 45 as overpriced cushion.
- FAU's +0.083 offensive EPA/play and TSU's +0.453 defensive EPA allowed can produce a 45-plus blowout.
- Florida Atlantic Owls spread −52.5+150%Won
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 PFF grades favor FAU 81.6 overall, 73.7 offense and 70.9 defense versus TSU at 61.4, 59.8 and 62.2.
- Personnel gate cleared from the latest passing boxes: Caden Veltkamp had 39 FAU attempts and Cam'Ron McCoy 31 TSU attempts; a same-day web search corroborates McCoy as TSU's quarterback.
- Most likely loss: FAU controls the game but wins by 40-52, so the efficiency mismatch does not clear the inflated -52.5.
Questions
Who won Texas Southern vs. Florida Atlantic?
The Florida Atlantic won 66–10 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.