Towson vs. MonmouthFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalKessler Stadium

Towson0–5

40–41Final

Monmouth3–2

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOWS	6	14	7	13	40
MONM	10	7	10	14	41

Top model pick, graded

Won

Monmouth Hawks to win −407

Why D1 Winner likes it: Efficiency favors Monmouth: +0.0958 recent offensive EPA/play and 49.2% success rate versus Towson's -0.0170 and 43.8%.

D1 WinnerDown 8% this season · 237 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 3-1 on this game · +26% return

Monmouth Hawks to winFavorite
+25%Won
Taken at −407 on DraftKings
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Efficiency favors Monmouth: +0.0958 recent offensive EPA/play and 49.2% success rate versus Towson's -0.0170 and 43.8%.
- Confirmed starters support Monmouth: Frankie Weaver went 33-for-42 for 313 yards and 2 TDs last week; Towson's Andrew Indorf threw 3 TDs but 2 interceptions.
- Monmouth's latest team grade leads in defense 73.0-69.5 and special teams 72.4-52.9; home venue and equal seven-day rest add situational support.
- Towson has only four charted advanced games and Monmouth only three, so opponent adjustment and efficiency estimates are noisy.
Towson Tigers spread +10.5
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PWP Composite Grade 72/100: qualifies as a medium-confidence B play.
- Simple score projection is Monmouth 30, Towson 25.5; six points of cushion versus the posted 10.5.
- Towson's last-five scoring margin is -17.2, but Monmouth's is only -8.2 and its defense has allowed 31.8 points per game.
- Monmouth is 3-2 and 2-0 in CAA play; Towson is 0-5, so the raw record gap can still produce a decisive home win.
Game total over 55.5
+88%Won
Taken at −113 on DraftKings
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 2026 scoring environment: Towson's three prior totals were 57, 54, and 57; Monmouth's two were 59 and 63.
- Both offenses have positive EPA/play (+0.058 Towson, +0.049 Monmouth), while defenses allow positive EPA (+0.244 and +0.355).
- Confirmed starters: Towson's Andrew Indorf and Monmouth's Frankie Weaver; both produced 241-plus passing yards last week.
- The pace fields are inconsistent, so tempo is the softest model input rather than a confirmed over signal.
Monmouth Hawks spread −10.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Edge class: PROJECTION; reference label: SHARP REFERENCE.
- Towson is 0-5 in 2026, losing by 3, 27, 36, 15, and 5 points: -17.2 average margin.
- Monmouth is 3-2 with current margins of +24, +7, -35, +8, and +3; the simple form differential points beyond -10.5.
- The form projection is unadjusted for opponent strength; Towson's schedule includes South Carolina and Navy, while Monmouth also has a 35-point loss.

Questions

Who won Towson vs. Monmouth?

The Monmouth won 41–40 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.