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UL Monroe vs. South AlabamaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalHancock Whitney Stadium
UL Monroe0–4
35–52Final
South Alabama2–2
Score by period
Team1234T
ULM7714735
USA211311752

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total over 55, pushes at exactly 55; 9.032% historical exact-55 mass 56¢

Why House Rules likes it: over 55 wins at 56+, pushes at exactly 55; over 55.5 loses at 55.

House RulesDown 3% this season · 1401 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-7 on this game · −4% return

  1. South Alabama Jaguars spread −142 models agree
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • South Alabama averages 0.1295 explosive plays per snap versus ULM's 0.1128 offensive rate; the home favorite has the better explosive profile.
    • South Alabama is 2-2 with a 72-point scoring margin; ULM is 0-4 with a -86 margin through four current-season games.
    • LEAN cap: the latest PFF card has no resolved ULM team grade, so this is half-size rather than a recommended play.
    Long Way Home
    • Through four games, South Alabama is +2 overall in scoring margin (+0.5 per game); UL Monroe is -86 (-21.5 per game).
    • South Alabama has scored 31.25 points per game versus UL Monroe's 21.25, while allowing 30.75 versus 42.75.
    • The margin gap is schedule-sensitive: UL Monroe's losses include Mississippi State and Florida Atlantic, while South Alabama's include Kentucky.
  2. Game total over 55, pushes at exactly 55; 9.032% historical exact-55 massHigh conviction
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • over 55 wins at 56+, pushes at exactly 55; over 55.5 loses at 55.
    • present exact-55 total mass is 9.032% (415 historical games).
    • ProphetX over 55 is -127 (55.95¢) versus over 55.5 at -118 (54.13¢), a 1.82¢ premium.
    • The 9.032% frequency is broad historical data; this game's scoring distribution could differ materially.
  3. UL Monroe to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 17¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
  4. South Alabama Jaguars to winFavorite
    +17%Won

    Taken at −580 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected margin is South Alabama by 18.784, comfortably above the market's 13.5-point spread.
    • South Alabama's recent offense EPA/play is +0.1257 versus ULM's -0.0041; ULM is 0-4 while South Alabama is 2-2.
    • FanDuel improved from -630 to -580, giving a materially better current entry than its opener.
    • South Alabama lost 45-21 at Kentucky last week and carries only a 68.7 PFF team grade.
  5. South Alabama Jaguars spread −12
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • South Alabama had $5,184 depth versus UL Monroe's $4,942, and 3 book levels versus 2: total depth and ladder breadth corroborate.
    • Directional coherence: backing South Alabama -12, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • The depth edge is only $242, about 4.9%, so the total-depth comparison is close and may be noise.
  6. Game total under 59.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Across the ladder, under has $1,457 depth versus over $1,295, and 3 book levels versus 2: both depth measures corroborate.
    • Directional coherence check: backing under, which is thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it with more levels, leg matches.
    • ProphetX's own book is the only reference; no independent sharp reference validates this order-flow interpretation.
Show all 13 picks
  1. UL Monroe Warhawks spread +14
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Home-team exact-14 margin: 276 of 10,371 CFB games, an empirical 2.661% push mass (2014-25).
    • The 2.661% estimate is all home-team exact-14 mass, not South Alabama-specific or favorite-only.
  2. Game total under 56
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current personnel check: Jared Hollins and Aidan Armenta led their teams' last-game pass attempts, and an October 3 depth-chart lookup lists both as the starters.
    • Sportsbook reference was 56.5, while ProphetX's own ladder offered the playable under-56 plus price; this is a projection read, not a devig claim.
    • Most likely loss: South Alabama exploits ULM's 0.3036 defensive EPA allowed per play and turns its 78.5-play pace into a 30-plus-point home output.
  3. South Alabama Jaguars first-half spread NO 13.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 27¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi quotes probabilities as fractions; the venue re-read this NO contract at 27¢.
    • South Alabama leads 21-7 with 0:25 left in Q1; NO needs UL Monroe to finish the half within 13 points.
    • 2,511 completed 2024-26 CFB margins give SD_full 15.77; square-root half scaling gives SD_1H 11.15, not 7.88.
    • At the re-read 27¢ price, live volatility and normal-approximation error can still dominate the estimated nine-point gap.
  4. UL Monroe Warhawks spread +13.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    RnjDown 65% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Captured spread range is South Alabama -13 to -14 across books, meeting the 1.0-point variance gate.
    • Last-four matchup EPA favors ULM by roughly +0.194 per play: ULM offense-vs-South defense +0.011 versus South offense-vs-ULM defense -0.183.
    • ULM averaged 0.1512 offensive EPA/play over its last four; South allowed 0.1400 defensive EPA/play.
    • ULM is 0-4 with a -21.5 average margin in the current-season sample.
  5. Game total under 57
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four-game 2026 sample: ULM averages +0.151 EPA/play, 45.7% success and 11.3% explosive rate; South Alabama averages +0.131, 47.3% and 13.0%.
    • The teams have scored 210 combined points through four games, a 52.5-point average versus the posted 57.
    • Pace is asymmetric, ULM’s current average is 28.5 seconds/play, and both offenses’ current PROE profiles point to a slower possession base than the total requires.
    • Most likely loss: South Alabama converts ULM’s +0.304 defensive EPA/play allowed into a 35-plus-point home performance and the game clears 57.
  6. South Alabama Jaguars spread −15.5
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Crossing non-key 15 should cost little; the higher rung is discounted too far versus empirical margin density.
    • South allows 0.139 EPA/play versus ULM's 0.304 and has home field.
    • Most likely loss: South Alabama wins by 15 or fewer; exact 15 is especially relevant.
  7. Game total over 57
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 combined game totals cleared 57 in 5 of 8 team games: South Alabama went over twice in four, ULM three times in four.
    • The eight-game average total is 62.5 points, 5.5 above the ProphetX line; both offenses average positive EPA/play (South Alabama about +0.121, ULM about +0.151).
    • Recent totals include South Alabama 66 and 77, plus ULM 62, 73 and 75, supporting an over-shaped scoring tail rather than a dead-under script.
    • Most likely loss: South Alabama controls the game defensively and ULM is held near single digits, producing a comfortable but low-scoring Jaguars win.

Questions

Who won UL Monroe vs. South Alabama?

The South Alabama won 52–35 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.

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