UTSA vs. RiceFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalFirst Community Stadium

UTSA3–1

16–14Final

Rice1–3

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
UTSA	6	10	0	0	16
RICE	7	0	0	7	14

Top model pick, graded

Won

Rice +13 53¢

Why Resting Money likes it: Rice carried 3 book levels versus UTSA's 2, corroborating the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it pattern.

Resting MoneyDown 3% this season · 1227 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 7-9 on this game · −11% return

UTSA Roadrunners spread −11.53 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsDrift, ProphetX Pairs +1
Why 3 models like it
Drift
- Model 55.0%: UTSA averages +0.119 offensive EPA/play, 0.088 defensive EPA allowed, 47.6% success, 10.7% explosive.
- Rice averages +0.022 offensive EPA/play, 0.179 defensive EPA allowed, 44.9% success; UTSA leads both efficiency sides.
- Partial four-game sample; opponent adjustment and margin variance remain material.
ProphetX Pairs
- CFB predictor projects UTSA by 12.417 points; -11.5 leaves a 0.917-point cushion.
- UTSA's four-game 2026 offense is +0.119 EPA/play versus Rice's +0.022; success rate is .476 versus .449.
- Only a 0.917-point gap separates the predictor margin from the wagered number; ordinary margin variance dominates.
Saturday Board Pairs
- Four-game 2026 FBS sample: UTSA offense averages +0.119 EPA/play, 47.6% success and 10.7% explosiveness.
- Rice allows +0.179 defensive EPA/play across four games, creating the favorable UTSA offensive matchup.
- Most likely loss: UTSA wins but by 1-10 points, with Rice's home field protecting the margin.
Rice Owls spread +11.52 models agree
+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket
2 modelsCFB Heater, Long Way Home
Why 2 models like it
CFB Heater
- The contract is active and accepting orders with roughly $10.3k traded; Rice +11.5 is priced at 48.5c.
- Rice is 1-3 this season and has a -11.2 recent scoring margin; UTSA is 3-1 with a +6.0 margin.
Long Way Home
- Rice’s four-game margin profile has only one non-Notre Dame loss by more than 11.5 points; UTSA’s three wins include margins of 29, 5, and 14.
- The 11.5-point cushion is large relative to the recent non-power-game separation, with Rice at home and the market already charging a steep UTSA moneyline.
- UTSA’s four-game profile is materially stronger: +0.119 offensive EPA/play and 2.69 points/drive versus Rice’s +0.022 and 1.90.
Game total under 55.52 models agree
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, Saturday Board Pairs
Why 2 models like it
Key Number CFB
- Rice's 10-game form is -0.044 EPA/play, 30.36 seconds per play and -0.167 PROE, supporting a slower, lower-scoring script.
- Availability gate cleared: latest box data has Owen McCown and Jacurri Brown leading their teams in pass attempts; same-wake official web checks found no contrary QB report.
- UTSA scored 35.25 points per game across its four 2026 games; its recent game totals were 104, 36, 57 and 61.
Saturday Board Pairs
- QB gate cleared: Owen McCown led UTSA with 30 last-game pass attempts and Jacurri Brown led Rice with 17; fresh web previews identify both starters and no injury designation is on file.
- Most likely loss: UTSA's pace plus its +0.1222 offensive EPA/play turns the matchup into a 40-point Roadrunner performance, with Rice adding just enough.
Rice +13High conviction
+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Rice carried 3 book levels versus UTSA's 2, corroborating the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it pattern.
- Directional coherence check: backing Rice +13, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- This is venue self-reference only; no independent sharp reference validates the order-flow read.
Under 55.5 total points
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 132 combined current-season offensive plays per game: UTSA 65.5, Rice 66.25; the chance count does not support a high total.
- Current points-per-drive averages are 2.69 for UTSA and 1.90 for Rice, producing a model total below 55.5.
- UTSA scored 104 points last week and can clear the number through explosive early drives.
Game total over 55
−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- The core two-measure pattern qualifies: Over is thinner at the quote but deeper behind it, with raw thin-side size well above a few hundred dollars.
- Directional coherence check: backing Over 55, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Book levels do not corroborate this read: Over had 3 levels and Under also had 3, so only two of three measures agree.

Show all 12 picks

UTSA Roadrunners spread −12
−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 12 pushes at an exact 12-point win; adjacent UTSA -12.5 loses on that same margin.
- ProphetX quotes UTSA -12 at 50.50¢ versus UTSA -12.5 at 50.00¢, only a 0.50¢ gap.
- 12 still loses on margins of 1 through 11; the push benefit is only the exact-12 bucket.
UTSA Roadrunners spread −10
−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- UTSA averages +0.119 EPA/play and Rice +0.022; UTSA's defense allows +0.088 EPA/play versus Rice's +0.179.
- Pinnacle's captured main spread is Rice +11.5 / UTSA -11.5, giving the -10 alternate a one-and-a-half-point cushion at a better key-number price.
- QB gate cleared: Owen McCown and Jacurri Brown led the latest pass-attempt boxes; a fresh Oct. 2 preview names both as starters.
- Most likely loss: Rice keeps the game within nine; an exact 10-point UTSA win is a push, not a win.
2-leg parlayLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at +26900
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
Game total under 54
+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- ProphetX's 54-point game rung is 2 points below Rice 21.5 plus UTSA 34.5 team-total rungs (56).
- 2026 sample: Rice averaged 30.30 seconds per play and -0.130 PROE across four games; UTSA's three plausible pace rows averaged 25.20 seconds, with the 2.59-second row treated as an outlier.
- QB gate cleared: Owen McCown led UTSA's latest passing box with 30 attempts and Jacurri Brown led Rice with 17; a current preview identifies both as expected starters.
- Rice's defense has allowed +0.1787 EPA per play across four games, so UTSA can create efficient short-field scoring.
UTSA Roadrunners first-half spread NO 6.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 633 completed 2026 regular-season CFB games show full-game margin SD 18.06; square-root half scaling gives 12.77, not a naively halved 9.03.
- Current four-game inputs favor UTSA: +0.119 offensive EPA/play and 2.69 points/drive versus Rice's +0.022 and 1.90.
- Pinnacle's full-game line is Rice +11.5, anchoring a first-half UTSA mean near +6.3 after the model's first-half split.
- Only a 2.63-point probability gap; this is below the moderate threshold, so first-half variance dominates and the call is LEAN, not RECOMMENDED.
Rice Owls to winLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 19¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, my four-game matchup baseline makes Rice's win probability roughly 24%, above ProphetX's 18.69¢ price (+435).
- Rice's 19.0 points scored and 30.25 allowed per game versus UTSA's 35.25 scored and 29.25 allowed produce an estimated 32.8-24.1 UTSA score, an 8.6-point margin rather than a 12-point game.
- UTSA's current-season offensive EPA/play is +0.119, but Rice's defensive EPA/play allowed is +0.179; the matchup is less one-sided than the moneyline implies.
- Most likely loss: UTSA's explosive offense creates an early lead that Rice's slower offense cannot answer.

Questions

Who won UTSA vs. Rice?

The UTSA won 16–14 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.