Valparaiso vs. Morehead StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalPhil Simms Stadium
Valparaiso1–3
37–3Final
Morehead State1–3
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALP | 7 | 6 | 14 | 10 | 37 |
| MORE | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonValparaiso Beacons −2.5 −112
Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: PWP Composite Grade 72/100; projected cover probability 58% versus 52.8% implied at -112.
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-1 on this game · +44% return
- Over total 51.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 scoring-form inputs: Valparaiso averages 30.25 points scored and 28.0 allowed; Morehead State averages 31.0 scored and 47.0 allowed across four games.
- The offense/defense blend points to a 68.1 raw combined-score baseline; regression for FCS variance produces a 54.0% over estimate.
- Morehead State advanced efficiency rows are not populated in the CFB warehouse, so the rating relies on four-game scoring inputs rather than EPA.
- Valparaiso Beacons −2.5+89%Won
Taken at −112 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP Composite Grade 72/100; projected cover probability 58% versus 52.8% implied at -112.
- Valparaiso owns the latest PFF team-grade edge, 80.7 to 71.4, with a 91.0 special-teams grade.
- Morehead State has allowed 188 points through four games; Valparaiso has allowed 112.
- Morehead State has home field and the sample is only four games per team.
- Valparaiso Beacons spread −2.5+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Valparaiso's latest four-game scoring margin is +2.2; Morehead State's latest three is -20.7, a 22.9-point form gap.
- Morehead State's two latest losses were 59-2 and 63-7; Valparaiso's latest losses were by 23 and 5.
- Pinnacle posts the same Valparaiso -2.5 line at -130; ProphetX offers -117.
- Small three-/four-game samples leave substantial schedule and variance uncertainty.
- Game total under 51.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Morehead State under 26.5 is -390 (79.6% implied) and Valparaiso under 25.5 is -300 (75.0%).
- Those team-total thresholds sum to 52; both unders imply a full-game under 51.5, yet ProphetX offers the game under at +102 (49.5¢).
- No sharp reference used; the edge is specifically the venue's related team-total pricing versus its main total.
- The two team-under prices do not reveal their joint probability; multiplying their implied probabilities would be invalid.
Questions
Who won Valparaiso vs. Morehead State?
The Valparaiso won 37–3 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.