Wagner vs. Central ConnecticutFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalArute Field
Wagner1–3
14–45Final
Central Connecticut0–3
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAGN | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| CENT | 21 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 45 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-2 on this game · −100% return
- Game total under 47.5−100%Lost
Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- INTERNAL COHERENCE; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: team-total rungs 14.5 plus 28.5 imply 43, 4.5 below the game total.
- Wagner posted -0.277 offensive EPA/play and 28.1% success against California in its latest 2026 game.
- Central Connecticut posted -0.473 offensive EPA/play and 24.6% success against Toledo in its latest 2026 game.
- Central Connecticut can create short fields and exceed its 28.5 team-total rung.
- Wagner Seahawks spread +13.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Wagner's captured current-season offense posted -0.277 EPA/play versus California and +0.008 versus James Madison.
- Recent scoring margins are similarly poor: Wagner -30.8 per game over its last four, Central Connecticut -32.3 over its last three.
- The 45.5, 46.5 market total favors a lower-scoring script, making 13.5 points more valuable than a shootout-dependent underdog ticket.
- The EPA sample is tiny and opponent strength is materially different; this is not a full opponent-adjusted projection.
Questions
Who won Wagner vs. Central Connecticut?
The Central Connecticut won 45–14 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.