Get app

Wyoming vs. North Dakota StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalFargodome
Wyoming2–2
0–28Final
North Dakota State4–0
Score by period
Team1234T
WYO06000
NORT7130828

Top model pick, graded

Won

North Dakota State Bison spread −17.5 48¢

Why CFB Heater likes it: Polymarket US maps the signal to the NO side, meaning NDSU -17.5; quoted and accepting at 47.5¢.

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 15-6 on this game · +42% return

  1. North Dakota State Bison spread −17.53 models agree
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    3 modelsCFB Heater, ProphetX Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    CFB Heater
    • Polymarket US maps the signal to the NO side, meaning NDSU -17.5; quoted and accepting at 47.5¢.
    • Wyoming is 2-2 in 2026, so a backdoor cover or late score can keep the margin below 18.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • cfb_predictor projects North Dakota State by 20.256, 2.756 points above this rung.
    • 2026 FBS-only averages: NDSU offense +0.346 EPA/play versus Wyoming +0.127; NDSU defense allowed +0.139 versus Wyoming +0.171.
    • The 20.256-point projection is a point estimate, not a simulated margin distribution.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Four-game Wyoming sample: +0.08593 offensive EPA/play, .48798 success rate, 1.83 points/drive; NDSU allows +0.01642 EPA/play.
    • PFF favors NDSU's offense 84.7 to Wyoming's 68.9 and overall grade 93.2 to 87.4.
    • Most likely loss: NDSU wins 17, 10 or 24, 7, with Wyoming's defense keeping the margin at 17 or fewer.
  2. Game total over 442 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Key Number CFB
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • North Dakota State averages +0.266 EPA/play and 52.1% success over 4 games; Wyoming allows +0.0807 EPA/play.
    • Wyoming averages +0.0859 EPA/play and 48.8% success; North Dakota State allows +0.0164 EPA/play over 4 games.
    • Most likely loss: NDSU's 29.46 seconds per play and Wyoming's low output produce a 31-10 or 34-7 type game.
    Key Number CFB
    • NDSU averages +0.266 EPA/play on offense; Wyoming allows +0.1305 EPA/play defensively.
    • NDSU and Wyoming have combined for 52.75 points per game through four 2026 regular-season games.
    • Wyoming's offense is only +0.0252 EPA/play, while NDSU allows just +0.0164 EPA/play defensively.
  3. Game total under 44.52 models agree
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Tempo Board
    Why 2 models like it
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP projection 42.0 is 5.6% below the posted 44.5 total.
    • Wyoming went under in 8 of its last 9 games with posted totals; one recent game had no line.
    • NDSU averages 35.0 points through four games, creating a real blowout-driven over path.
    Tempo Board
    • full-game 44.5 sits 0.5 above ProphetX team-total sum of NDSU 30.5 plus Wyoming 13.5.
    • current four-game samples show Wyoming at 1.83 points per drive and 48.8% success, while NDSU allows only 0.016 EPA/play.
    • NDSU averages 35.0 points and 0.266 offensive EPA/play; one efficient home performance can clear 44.5 alone.
  4. Game total under 442 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsLong Way Home, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Long Way Home
    • PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, eight completed team-game totals average 42.75, with only 2 of 8 clearing 44.
    • Wyoming's four totals are 37, 34, 34, and 48; NDSU's last four are 40, 70, 41, and 38.
    • The 70-point NDSU, Air Force game shows a real shootout path; one short-field sequence can break 44.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • four-game scoring blend: NDSU 35.0 offense vs Wyoming 20.5 allowed, plus Wyoming 17.75 offense vs NDSU 12.25 allowed, points to 42.75.
    • NDSU has allowed 12.25 points per game; Wyoming has scored 17.75 per game, supporting a lower-scoring Wyoming contribution.
    • Only four current-season games support the projection; the 1.25-point cushion is small and variance dominates.
  5. Wyoming Cowboys team total over 13.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 10.25 projected drives each; matchup projects Wyoming for 14.95 points and the game for 40.9.
    • Opponent-adjusted PPD blend: Wyoming offense 1.830 with NDSU defense allowing 1.086, yielding 1.458 PPD; 10.25 drives implies 14.95.
    • Only four current-season advanced rows per team; the early-season sample is still noisy and the PPD blend is approximate.
  6. 3-leg parlay
    +61%Won

    Taken at −163

    Short YardageUp 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wake Forest: -650 implies 86.7%; model 91.5% (+4.8 points), with 2026 four-game grades 85.7 overall and 82.5 defense.
    • Wisconsin: -360 implies 78.3%; model 84.5% (+6.2 points), with 92.8 overall and 91.3 defense grades against Michigan State's 84.8 defense.
    • North Dakota State: -1050 implies 91.3%; model 95.0% (+3.7 points), backed by +0.266 offensive EPA/play, 0.518 success rate, and 2.92 points/drive.
    • All three current-season samples are only four games; estimates use conservative uncertainty bands rather than optimistic form.
Show all 16 picks
  1. Nathan Hayes under 210.5 passing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Empirical model: under in 3 of 4 2026 appearances (160, 210, 210, 228 yards).
    • FanDuel -114 implies 53.8%; the 75% sample estimate clears the 4-point value gate.
    • Wyoming allows 130.3 pass yards per game, ranked 7th of 151 current teams.
    • The 210-yard outcomes leave little margin if the line moves before kickoff.
  2. North Dakota State Bison spread −16.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • QB/injury family favors NDSU: Nathan Hayes has 598 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT in three starts; Wyoming has two CBs and three OL officially out.
    • Situational support: NDSU has 13 days rest versus Wyoming's 7 and plays at home in the Fargodome.
    • NDSU's recent pace is slow at roughly 29 seconds per play, creating fewer possessions and wider cover variance.
  3. North Dakota State −17
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional check: backing North Dakota State -17, the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it side, leg matches.
    • Book levels do not corroborate: 3 versus 3, so the read relies on two measures.
  4. Wyoming Cowboys spread +17
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • absolute 17-point margins occurred 227/6,003 times, an explicit 3.781% push probability.
    • ProphetX quotes +17 -102 (50.50c) versus +17.5 -115 (53.49c); the 2.99-point gap is below 3.781%.
    • Annual exact-17 mass ranged from 2.365% to 5.106% across 2019, 25; the historical estimate is variable.
  5. North Dakota State total points under 43 (push at exactly 43)
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Whole-number under 43 pushes at exactly 43; adjacent under 43.5 loses at 43.
    • 155 of 10,371 CFB finals landed exactly on 43 points: 1.495% empirical push mass, 2014-25 regular/postseason.
    • ProphetX quotes under 43 at +112 (47.17c) versus under 43.5 at +105 (48.78c).
    • No independent price reference; the paired comparison is ProphetX VENUE SELF-REFERENCE only.
  6. North Dakota State −17.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Vig Gap CFBNew model
    Why it likes it
    • NDSU is an FBS Mountain West opponent in 2026, so the FCS-vs-FBS exclusion does not apply.
    • Kalshi moved from 46.5¢ toward the 50.0% sharp probability to 47¢ by 11:59 AM; the gap is already closing.
  7. North Dakota State Bison first-half spread NO 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's full-game NDSU -17 scales to an approximately 8.5, 9.0 first-half mean.
    • 2,357 signed CFB margins from 2024, 26 have SD 23.17; sqrt-half scaling gives 16.38, not the naively halved 11.58.
    • At mean 9.0 and SD 16.38, the model gives roughly 47% to NO at the exact 7.5 rung versus a 44c buy price.
    • This is a LEAN, not RECOMMENDED: the model edge is only about three percentage points after the rung-specific reference.
  8. Mekhi Collins over 35.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Empirical model: over in 3 of 4 2026 appearances (38, 44, 41, 11 yards).
    • FanDuel -114 implies 53.8%; the 75% sample estimate clears the 4-point value gate.
    • Collins has logged at least 38 yards in three straight appearances before this matchup.
    • Wyoming's 130.3 pass yards allowed per game ranks 7th of 151, an unfavorable matchup.
  9. North Dakota State Bison spread −19.5
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • CFB margin histogram: 375 games landed on 17, versus 268 on 18 and 168 on 19; adjacent-rung mass is not flat.
    • NDSU's 2026 offense is +0.266 EPA/play and 2.92 points/drive versus Wyoming's +0.086 and 1.464; PFF offense grades are 84.7 to 68.9.
    • QB gate cleared: box data identifies Nathan Hayes and Tyler Hughes as each team's recent pass-attempt leaders, and the live game listing names them as starters.
    • A -19.5 ticket needs a 20-point NDSU win; the market's main number is only -17.
  10. North Dakota State Bison spread −17
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NDSU's 2026 four-game profile: +0.266 offensive EPA/play and .521 success rate versus Wyoming's +0.086 and .488.
    • NDSU's defensive EPA allowed is +0.016 per play versus Wyoming's +0.081, supporting the stronger-side margin projection.
    • Most likely loss: Wyoming's offense generates enough explosive plays to keep the margin below 17; its season explosive rate is .153 versus NDSU's .133.

Questions

Who won Wyoming vs. North Dakota State?

The North Dakota State won 28–0 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.