Youngstown State vs. Southern IllinoisFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalSaluki Stadium
Youngstown State3–2
28–16Final
Southern Illinois3–2
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YOUN | 0 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 28 |
| SOUT | 3 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 16 |
Top model pick, graded
WonYoungstown State Penguins to win 63¢
Why D1 Winner likes it: Efficiency: YSU grades 85.9 overall and 81.0 offense versus SIU at 74.9 and 63.1.
D1 WinnerDown 8% this season · 237 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-3 on this game · +17% return
- Southern Illinois Salukis spread +3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fair line: Southern Illinois -1.0, versus a market spread of Southern Illinois +3.5, a 4.5-point gap.
- SIU defensive EPA allowed is +0.028/play versus Youngstown State's +0.354; the matchup favors the Saluki defense.
- SIU's offense is +0.107 EPA/play; YSU is +0.235, but the Penguins face the substantially stronger defense.
- The efficiency sample is only two 2026 games per team, with limited opponent-adjusted FCS context.
- Youngstown State Penguins to win+59%Won
Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Efficiency: YSU grades 85.9 overall and 81.0 offense versus SIU at 74.9 and 63.1.
- Per-play offense: YSU posted +0.482 EPA/play and 64.2% success in its latest charted game.
- QB family: official previews identify Beau Brungard and DJ Williams; no current injury designation is listed.
- Only three charted advanced games per team; Week 5 samples remain noisy and incompletely opponent-adjusted.
- Game total under 64.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP Composite Grade 73/100 (Grade B), clearing the 70-point fire bar.
- Recent scoring-total projection is 58.5, 9.3% below the posted 64.5.
- SIU owns a 79.2 defensive grade, and both official previews confirm the matchup without reporting a major availability change.
- Youngstown State just posted 47 points with a 0.642 latest success rate and 0.209 explosive-play rate.
- Game total under 63+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- under 63 pushes at exactly 63 total points; under 63.5 wins there, so the whole rung carries a refund option.
- Pooled CFB 2014-25 history: exactly 63 total points occurred 191 of 10,371 games, or 1.842%.
- ProphetX priced under 63 at 49.75c versus under 63.5 at 50.98c, only a 1.23c gap versus 1.842% push mass.
- The 1.842% exact-total rate is pooled across 10,371 games, not tailored to this matchup or its posted total.
- Southern Illinois +4 spread−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Southern Illinois +4 pushes on an exact 4-point loss; +4.5 would win there, so the whole rung has a refund option.
- Pooled CFB 2014-25 history: exact 4-point margins occurred 335 of 10,371 games, or 3.230%.
- ProphetX priced SIU +4 at 53.49c versus SIU +4.5 at 56.14c, a 2.65c gap versus 3.230% push mass.
- The 3.230% rate is a pooled historical sample, not a matchup-specific margin distribution.
- Game total under 63.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fair total: 59.5 points, four below the posted 63.5.
- The four-game combined scoring average is 60.75; SIU's two game totals average 55.0.
- SIU's defensive EPA allowed is +0.028/play, while YSU's defense has allowed +0.354/play; the stronger unit belongs to the home side.
- The pace input is soft: SIU's 15.4-second average includes an anomalous 3.0-second game value, so tempo is not a reliable under edge.
Show all 8 picks
- Southern Illinois Salukis to win−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Southern Illinois leads 3-0 in the first quarter after 21 tracked plays.
- Live EPA: Southern Illinois +0.959 total (+0.0737/play) versus Youngstown State -2.041 (-0.2552/play).
- Only 21 plays are in the sample; early EPA is highly volatile.
- Youngstown State −3.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- That production gap supports Youngstown State clearing the 3.5-point threshold; my game read is YSU.
- Reference label: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE, ProphetX also prices YSU -172 on the moneyline and -110 at -3.5.
- Most likely loss: Southern Illinois’ home field and its latest -0.346 defensive EPA/play suppress YSU’s offense.
Questions
Who won Youngstown State vs. Southern Illinois?
The Youngstown State won 28–16 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.