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Air Force vs. WyomingFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalWar Memorial Stadium
Air Force5–1
14–28Final
Wyoming4–3
Score by period
Team1234T
AF068014
WYO7140728

Top model pick, graded

Won

Wyoming +7.5 58¢

Why House Rules likes it: ProphetX prices the strictly better +7.5 rung at 58.33c, versus +7 at 77.53c (-345): an 19.20c ladder contradiction.

House RulesDown 3% this season · 1401 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 9-15 on this game · −32% return

  1. Air Force Falcons to winFavorite5 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 68¢ on ProphetX

    5 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Picks With Pink Grading System +3
    Why 5 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Current six-game Air Force offense averages +0.245 EPA/play and .522 success rate; Wyoming's seven-game defense allows +0.083 EPA/play.
    • Wyoming's seven-game offense averages +0.062 EPA/play and .464 success rate against Air Force's six-game defense allowing +0.078 EPA/play; the two-way efficiency profile favors Air Force.
    • Medders had only 3 pass attempts in the latest box score, so the current starter identity carries meaningful small-sample uncertainty.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • Adjusted win estimate 75%; 7.3 points above the 67.7% devigged market probability.
    • FPI ratings: Air Force -2.145 versus Wyoming -15.428; SP+ ratings are 1.5 versus -9.3.
    • Liam Szarka is officially out; Medders is expected by the warehouse and media-confirmed, but college lineups are not official.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • FPI rates Air Force -2.145 versus Wyoming -15.428; the 13.28-point rating gap supports the road side.
    • Six-game EPA window: Air Force +0.2453 offensive EPA/play and 52.2% success versus Wyoming +0.0788 and 46.4%.
    • Air Force has multiple defensive players out, while LB Blake Fletcher and RB Rocco Conti are questionable.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels: Air Force 3 vs Wyoming 3; two of three measures support the thin/deep configuration.
    • Directional check: backing Air Force, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Only two measures agree; equal book-level counts provide no corroboration.
  2. Air Force Falcons −63 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    3 modelsRnj, Saturday Board Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Rnj
    • FPI matchup margin is Air Force +11.945 at Wyoming; fair edge versus -6 is 5.945 points.
    • Drive efficiency favors Air Force 3.142 vs 1.833 points per drive; latest three FBS margins favor Air Force +12.0 to Wyoming -2.33.
    • Air Force's overall defensive EPA allowed is slightly worse than Wyoming's, +0.1518 to +0.1280; its latest-three defensive EPA improves to +0.0008 versus Wyoming +0.0848.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Air Force's six-game offense averages +0.245 EPA/play, .522 success rate, and .109 explosive rate; Wyoming's seven-game defense allows +0.083 EPA/play.
    • Wyoming's seven-game offense averages only +0.062 EPA/play and .464 success rate, while Air Force's defense allows +0.110 EPA/play; the matchup still favors the Falcons' stronger offense.
    • Medders is a recent starter and had only three pass attempts in the latest box score; a new-QB variance path can erase the efficiency edge.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • only current-season offense: Air Force +0.235 EPA/play and .5145 success rate versus Wyoming +0.078 and .4657; the market has not fully absorbed the gap at -6.
    • Air Force's recent form is 5-1 with a +11.2 average scoring margin; Wyoming is 4-3 at -2.6.
    • Wyoming's FBS-only explosive rate is higher, .1286 versus Air Force's .1105, and its home offense is .2407 EPA/play across three games.
  3. Game total under 472 models agree
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsKey Number CFB, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Key Number CFB
    • Air Force's 2026 offense is +0.245 EPA/play but operates at 32.0 seconds per play with -0.236 PROE; Wyoming's offense is +0.062 EPA/play.
    • Air Force has scored/allowed 185/118 in six games; Wyoming 128/146 in seven, a combined scoring profile below the 46.5-47 market range.
    • Most likely loss: explosive Air Force rushing and Wyoming home scoring push the game to 48 or more.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • the simple current-season team-total blend is 44.8 points: Air Force games average 50.5, Wyoming games 39.1.
    • Wyoming averages 18.3 points per game; Air Force's -0.236 PROE indicates a strongly run-oriented offense that can shorten possessions.
    • Air Force averages 30.8 points and its offense is +0.245 EPA/play; an efficient Falcon outing can clear 47 alone with modest Wyoming scoring.
  4. Wyoming +7.5High conviction
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX prices the strictly better +7.5 rung at 58.33c, versus +7 at 77.53c (-345): an 19.20c ladder contradiction.
    • The 7-point frequency is a broad CFB sample and may not match Air Force, Wyoming’s margin distribution.
  5. Game total under 45.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  6. Game total under 46.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full coverage: Air Force has 6 current-season games and Wyoming 7; current scoring efficiency is 3.25 versus 1.82 points per drive.
    • Opponent-adjusted profile is asymmetric: Air Force posts +0.245 EPA/play and .522 success, while Wyoming is +0.062 EPA/play and .464 success.
    • Laramie conditions are a support: NWS reported 21-mph wind with 36-mph gusts shortly before kickoff; the total moved from 44.5 to 46.5, improving the under price relative to my fair number.
    • Most likely loss: Air Force's efficient rushing offense reproduces its 30.8 points-per-game form and forces Wyoming into catch-up possessions.
Show all 17 picks
  1. 2-leg parlay
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +101

    Short YardageUp 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Air Force: 78.0% model vs 68.6% raw implied; current six-game offense EPA/play +0.245 vs Wyoming +0.062, success .522 vs .464, and 3.248 vs 1.821 points/drive.
    • NC State: 78.5% model vs 72.6% raw implied; current six-game offense EPA/play +0.160 vs Stanford -0.024 and defense allowed +.092 vs Stanford +.333.
    • Air Force's explosive rate is lower than Wyoming's (.109 vs .133), and Wyoming has home-field altitude plus a stronger current PFF pass-rush grade.
  2. Air Force Falcons −5.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on FanDuel

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ESPN's predicted margin is Air Force by 11.945, leaving a 6.445-point cushion over FanDuel's -5.5.
    • Air Force's 2026 offense posts +0.245 EPA/play and 52.2% success versus Wyoming's +0.062 and 46.4%.
    • Air Force averages 3.248 points per drive versus Wyoming's 1.821, supporting separation rather than a narrow coin flip.
    • Expected, not confirmed, QB assignments remain the main availability uncertainty: Evan Medders for Air Force and Tyler Hughes for Wyoming.
  3. Under 46.5 total points
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • exactly 46 total points occurred 107 of 10,371 games, a 1.032% push/extra-win slice.
    • This is not a projection edge: under 46.5 still loses on 47 or more points; my win estimate is near the market's 50.25¢.
  4. Air Force Falcons spread −6
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Air Force is 5-1 with +11.2 recent scoring margin; Wyoming is 4-3 with -2.6.
    • Current form EPA favors Air Force offense +0.186/play versus Wyoming -0.0216/play across the recent window.
    • Key-number density: exact CFB margin 7 occurred 886/11,308 times (7.8%); -6 wins when Air Force wins by 7.
    • Most likely loss: Wyoming wins outright or Air Force wins by 1-5; the cover margin is still volatile.
  5. Total points over 45.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX's 45.5 full-game rung is 1.5 points below its 20.5 + 26.5 team-total sum of 47.0.
    • QB gate passed: Evan Medders led Air Force's latest passing box and current reporting says he has taken over; Tyler Hughes led Wyoming's latest box and current reporting identifies him as Wyoming's quarterback.
    • Medders has only 3 pass attempts in the latest box; an unreported offensive limitation or late availability change could reduce scoring.
  6. Air Force Falcons spread −5.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Long WeekDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +0.183 offensive EPA/play edge: Air Force 0.245 versus Wyoming 0.062.
    • Air Force leads success rate 52.2% to 46.4% and averages 30.8 points versus Wyoming's 18.3.
    • Quality-opponent proxy favors Air Force: -0.5 average margin versus Wyoming's -25.0.
    • Both teams last played October 17, so there is no bye or short-week advantage.
  7. Evan Medders under 46.5 passing yards
    +86%Won

    Taken at −116 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 64%; FanDuel raw implied 53.7% and two-way devig 50.6%: +10.3/+13.4 points, respectively.
    • Medders stayed under 46.5 in 3 of 4 2026 passing lines: 18, 0, 47, 0 yards.
    • Air Force passed on 13.4% of plays over the recent 10-game window, with 4.6% and 2.9% in its latest two games.
    • Exact-line sample is only four games, not a full L10; fallback form caps conviction at low.
  8. First-half total under 27.5Favorite
    +32%Won

    Taken at 76¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • prior under 23.5 is held; 27.5 is the moved live rung, not a duplicate.
    • Live state is 7-0 at Q2 15:00; under 27.5 permits 20 more points with 15 game minutes left.
    • 46.5 full-game total × (8.09/20.10) × 1.001 ≈ 18.7; the contract re-read at 76c for NO.
    • No independent first-half sharp rung; 18.7 is a derived reference, so this is LEAN rather than RECOMMENDED.
  9. First-half total under 23.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
  10. Air Force Falcons spread −6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; reference label: NO REFERENCE, Air Force averages +0.245 EPA/play this season versus Wyoming's +0.062.
    • Air Force is 5-1 with a +11.2 recent scoring-margin profile; Wyoming is 4-3 at -2.6.
    • Most likely loss: Wyoming's home field and a turnover swing keep the game within 6.5.
  11. Air Force Falcons–Wyoming Cowboys under 48 total points
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION edge; Reference label: NO REFERENCE (Pinnacle's 46.5 is not the same line).
    • Wyoming averaged 18.3 points across seven 2026 games; its offense averaged only 0.062 EPA/play.
    • Most likely loss: Air Force's recent scoring volatility returns; its last six game totals included 72, 69, and 70.

Questions

Who won Air Force vs. Wyoming?

The Wyoming won 28–14 on Friday, Oct 23, 2026.

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