Sam Houston vs. Missouri StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalRobert W. Plaster Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHSU | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| MOST | 7 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMissouri State wins 1st Half 61¢
Why Kickoff Script likes it: Sam Houston averaged -0.256 offensive EPA/play across its latest three games; Missouri State's defense allowed positive EPA in two of its last three.
Kickoff ScriptDown 7% this season · 363 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-4 on this game · +13% return
- Missouri State wins 1st Half+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Sam Houston averaged -0.256 offensive EPA/play across its latest three games; Missouri State's defense allowed positive EPA in two of its last three.
- Missouri State averaged 2.10 points/drive over its last three; Sam Houston managed 0.58 points/drive.
- Only three recent games per team; Missouri State's 61-point defensive concession to Delaware and Sam Houston's 5.03-second pace entry are unusual inputs.
- Sam Houston Bearkats to win−100%Lost
Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Missouri State Bears first-half spread NO 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 4,524 FBS regular-season margins (2022, 26) have SD 15.14; square-root half scaling gives first-half SD ≈10.70.
- Pinnacle full-game Missouri State -5.5 scales to a +2.75 halftime mean; season pace/PPD signal (2.11 vs 1.41 points per drive) implies about +3.5 over roughly five drives, blended mean ≈+3.1.
- modeled YES probability drops about 3.7 points from 2.5 to 3.5, versus a 7-point Kalshi midpoint gap; exact-rung structural value is modest.
- Derived same-rung reference, not an independent first-half sharp quote; small probability edge is capped at EXPLORATORY.
- Missouri State −17.5+400%Won
Taken at 20¢ on Kalshi
CFB Moonshot SinglesUp 44% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Sam Houston averages just 20.1 points per game this season; its latest five include three losses by 16+ points.
- Missouri State's recent 10-game offense is +0.061 EPA/play and 2.30 points per drive; Sam Houston defense allowed +0.076 EPA/play.
- Missouri State just conceded 61 points to Delaware; its defense has allowed 34.9 points per game this season.
- Sam Houston Bearkats spread +6−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Seven 2026 games: net EPA/play is -0.067 for Sam Houston versus -0.193 for Missouri State, a +0.126/play relative edge.
- ESPN's matchup projection gives Missouri State a 3.4-point margin; +6 provides 2.6 points beyond that projection, while PFF defense grades favor Sam Houston 75.8 to 69.3.
- Both are FBS Conference USA teams with seven current-season rows; the G5 cap keeps this at LEAN.
- Most likely loss: Missouri State's stronger PFF offense grade (77.3 vs. 62.2) and home field turn the matchup into a win by seven or more.
- Missouri State to win+28%Won
Taken at 78¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Show all 7 picks
- Sam Houston Bearkats +6−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ESPN’s game model projected Missouri State by 3.4 points, 2.6 below the market’s six-point spread; that supports Sam Houston +6.
- Pinnacle also dealt Sam Houston +6, at -110; ProphetX’s -104 is the better price on the same line.
- Most likely loss: Missouri State wins by 7 or more, beyond the ESPN model’s projected margin.
Questions
Who won Sam Houston vs. Missouri State?
The Missouri State won 24–3 on Tuesday, Oct 27, 2026.