Get app

Marshall vs. Old DominionFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalS.B. Ballard Stadium
Marshall4–3
36–23Final
Old Dominion2–6
Score by period
Team1234T
MRSH17103636
ODU737623

Top model pick, graded

Won

Marshall Thundering Herd spread −2.5 54¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 5-6 on this game · −15% return

  1. Marshall Thundering Herd to win2 models agree
    +70%Won

    Taken at −142 on DraftKings

    2 modelsD1 Winner, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    D1 Winner
    • Marshall season success rate 44.3% versus Old Dominion 30.3%.
    • Marshall's recent opponent-adjusted EPA averages +0.0976; Old Dominion's -0.1068.
    • Old Dominion owns a strong home defensive profile: 91.3 PFF defense and 91.2 coverage grade.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Marshall’s stronger FBS offensive efficiency and success profile support the moneyline despite ODU’s better defense.
    • Pinnacle lists Marshall -141; context only, not the thesis.
    • QB is unresolved: expected lineup lists Zion Turner second for Marshall and Quinn Henicle first for ODU, with no observed confirmation.
  2. Marshall Thundering Herd spread −2.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  3. Marshall Thundering Herd over 45.5 total points
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
  4. Game under 47.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season scoring averages combine for 37.2 points: Marshall 21.7, Old Dominion 15.5.
    • Old Dominion’s last-8 offense posted -0.124 EPA/play, 38.1% success and 1.04 points/drive.
    • Marshall’s latest quarterback/injury uncertainty is reinforced by a same-morning report that ODU QB Quinn Henicle is out; downside scoring is concentrated.
    • The Henicle report is from a credible reporter citing a Sun Belt report, but no official Sun Belt designation or confirmed lineup is posted; status could be wrong.
  5. Old Dominion Monarchs +3
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels tie 3-3; two of three measures agree. Backing Old Dominion +3, which is the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it side, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: both sides show 3 levels.
  6. Marshall −3 full-game spread (push if Marshall wins by exactly 3)
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Marshall -3 pushes if Marshall wins by exactly 3; Marshall -3.5 loses that outcome.
    • ProphetX Marshall -3 is +107 / 48.31¢ versus -3.5 at +122 / 45.05¢.
    • The 4.27-point push option exceeds the adjacent rung's roughly 3.31-point price adjustment.
    • This is not a projection edge: Marshall must still win by 4 or more for a ticket win.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Old Dominion Monarchs spread +3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle centers Marshall -3, corroborating a close game where the +3.5 rung captures key-number protection.
    • Old Dominion’s defense grades 91.3 PFF and allows 0.030 EPA/play, versus Marshall’s 67.6 defense and 0.145 allowed; that offsets Marshall’s offensive edge.
    • QB gate checked: Zion Turner and Jaxon Potter led their latest passing rows; fresh official Marshall and ODU checks found no ruled-out or open quarterback battle.
    • Most likely loss: Marshall wins by four or more points.
  2. Total points under 46.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle also posts Under 46.5 at -118.
    • ProphetX's related team totals price Old Dominion under 21.5 (-117) and Marshall under 23.5 (-138), a 45-point combined threshold below 46.5.
    • Marshall averages 21.7 points and Old Dominion 15.5 through the current season; both offenses sit below this game's total alone.
    • Marshall's defense allows 30.7 points per game and 0.145 EPA/play, so short fields or explosive ODU plays can break the under.
  3. Old Dominion Monarchs to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Marshall's road split is the structural mismatch: -0.043 offensive EPA/play but +0.301 defensive EPA/play allowed, 15.7 points for and 38.0 against across three road games.
    • Old Dominion's home profile is steadier: 20.8 points for, 24.8 against, and -0.019 defensive EPA/play across four home games.
    • Most likely ticket path is Old Dominion controlling field position against Marshall's poor road defense and winning outright.
    • The most likely loss is Marshall's road defense regressing toward season ability while its offense creates enough explosive plays for an outright win.
  4. Total Points under 45
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 samples: Marshall 26.55 seconds/play, +10.6% PROE, 11.2% explosive and 48.6% successful; ODU 23.28, +5.9%, 8.5%, 38.1%.
    • ODU averages 15.5 points; its 91.3 PFF defense and 91.2 coverage grade suppress Marshall's scoring efficiency.
    • Marshall averages 21.7 points, while ODU's defense allows only +0.030 EPA/play; the projection centers below the 45-46.5 reference.
    • Most likely loss: Marshall's defense allows +0.145 EPA/play, creating short fields or efficient ODU drives that push the game above 45.

Win chance, start to finish

50%ODUMRSHKickoff
Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Marshall vs. Old Dominion?

The Marshall won 36–23 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.