Northern Arizona vs. Southern UtahFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalEccles Coliseum
Northern Arizona6-2
34–27Final
Southern Utah3-5
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NORT | 0 | 6 | 21 | 7 | 34 |
| SOUT | 10 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame over 60.5 total points 53¢
Why BETALAB 6.0 likes it: Season scoring averages combine to 63.4 points: Northern Arizona 31.6, Southern Utah 31.8.
BETALAB 6.0Down 11% this season · 276 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-2 on this game · +35% return
- Game total over 60.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsKey Number CFB, Tempo Gap +1Why 3 models like it
Key Number CFB- ProphetX also quotes over 61.5 at -168 / 62.69c, an impossible ordering that makes over 60.5 the cheaper, broader event.
- recent scoring blend is approximately 63.4 points; both offenses average above 0.11 EPA/play.
- Most likely loss: the game finishes 60 or fewer points; exact-60 density still occurred 105 times historically.
Tempo Gap- Fair total 63.8, a 3.3-point gap above FanDuel's exact 60.5.
- 136 projected combined plays from 65.6 NAU and 70.8 Southern Utah season averages.
- Southern Utah's last-four defense allowed 27.3 points per game and 0.05 EPA/play allowed.
Picks With Pink Grading System- Model mean 63.3 points from 16 recent regular-season game totals; pooled SD 15.5.
- Normal approximation gives 55.8% after a modest weather haircut for later showers.
- The raw 16-game distribution produces 57.2% before weather; the adjustment is judgment, not calibrated probability.
- Game over 60.5 total points+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season scoring averages combine to 63.4 points: Northern Arizona 31.6, Southern Utah 31.8.
- Last-five scoring averages are 34.8 and 32.4; both offenses also show positive EPA/play, while defensive EPA allowed is +0.17 and +0.15.
- Grade B; research quality 72/100. Over 60.5 is preferred to the unprotected 61.5 total.
- Both college lineups are expected rather than confirmed; FCS availability reporting is not comprehensive.
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacks spread −2.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle -3 -115 and DraftKings -3 -112 corroborate the favorite direction; ProphetX supplies the better -2.5 rung at a comparable price.
- The -2.5 rung wins on the dense three-point margin: exact 3-point margins occurred 1,056 times in 12,? CFB regular/postseason games in the warehouse sample.
- Personnel gate cleared: Ty Pennington and Will Burns led their teams' latest passing boxes; same-day matchup checks support both as the expected starters, with no open battle reported.
- Most likely loss: Southern Utah wins outright or Northern Arizona wins by only 1-2 points.
- Game total under 60.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- My conservative fair probability is 56%; this is a structural read, not a claimed simulation.
- Both QB listings are expected, not officially confirmed; late availability news could erase the total edge.
- Southern Utah Thunderbirds to win−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Northern Arizona's SRS rating is -25.6 versus Southern Utah's -27.8; home field largely offsets the small neutral-field gap.
- Season scoring is nearly identical: Southern Utah 31.75 points/game, Northern Arizona 31.63; Southern Utah also has the better offensive EPA, 0.12 to 0.12.
- Most likely loss: Northern Arizona's stronger SRS rating and better season defensive profile, 30.13 points allowed per game versus Southern Utah's 33.13, win out.
Win chance, start to finish
50%SOUTNORTKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Northern Arizona vs. Southern Utah?
Northern Arizona won 34-27 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.