Louisiana Tech vs. South AlabamaFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalHancock Whitney Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LT | 7 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 35 |
| USA | 14 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
Top model pick, graded
WonLouisiana Tech −7.5 44¢
Why Saturday Rung likes it: Pinnacle's -6 anchor devigs to 51.7% Louisiana Tech cover probability at the sharp main number.
Saturday RungDown 21% this season · 52 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 11-14 on this game · −10% return
- Louisiana Tech Bulldogs to win+47%Won
Taken at 68¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Key Number CFB +1Why 3 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs- game FBS sample: Louisiana Tech’s defense allows -0.0622 EPA/play versus South Alabama’s +0.1865 allowed, a 0.2487-play defensive gap.
- Louisiana Tech’s PFF defense grades 82.8 overall versus South Alabama’s 54.0; the 28.8-point film gap supports the favorite despite South Alabama’s stronger offense.
- Most likely loss: South Alabama’s +0.2015 offensive EPA/play and .4664 success rate exploit Louisiana Tech’s defense and produce the upset.
Key Number CFB- Louisiana Tech owns an 11.3-point 2026 average margin versus South Alabama's 2.7-point mark through seven games.
- Tech's defense allows -0.062 EPA/play versus South Alabama's +0.187; PFF overall grades are 85.3 to 73.4 and defensive grades 82.8 to 54.0.
- South Alabama's offense is stronger by 2026 EPA/play, 0.202 to 0.093, and home field creates an upset path.
Long Way Home- live CFB data shows Louisiana Tech at +0.5488 offensive EPA/play versus South Alabama at +0.2462.
- Louisiana Tech has a 0.500 live success rate and already produced a 67-yard touchdown; the first-quarter deficit may be overweighted.
- Most likely loss: South Alabama's 14-7 lead becomes decisive while Louisiana Tech's offense stalls.
- Louisiana Tech Bulldogs spread −6.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Key Number CFB +1Why 3 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs- PROJECTION, both teams are FBS with seven 2026 regular-season games; Louisiana Tech's net EPA/play is +0.155 versus South Alabama's +0.015.
- Louisiana Tech's defense grades 82.8 overall versus South Alabama's 54.0; the 28.8-point defensive gap offsets South Alabama's slightly better offensive EPA and success rate.
- Most likely loss: South Alabama's +0.202 offensive EPA/play and .466 success rate exploit Louisiana Tech's defense enough to keep the Jaguars within six.
Key Number CFB- Louisiana Tech averages +0.093 EPA/play offense and -0.062 defense allowed; South Alabama is +0.202 offensively but allows +0.187.
- Latest PFF card favors Louisiana Tech 85.3 overall and 82.8 defense to South Alabama’s 73.4 and 54.0.
- Most likely loss: South Alabama wins outright or Louisiana Tech wins by 1, 6 points.
Long Way Home- ProphetX offers Louisiana Tech -6.5 at +101; the same main number is -6 at Pinnacle -105.
- Louisiana Tech's last four offensive EPA/play marks average +0.180; South Alabama's last four average +0.201 but with two negative games and much wider variance.
- Most likely loss: South Alabama's explosive offense reproduces its 52- and 56-point performances, forcing a one-score game.
- South Alabama Jaguars to win−100%Lost
Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsSaturday Board, Resting MoneyWhy 2 models like it
Saturday Board- Most likely loss: Louisiana Tech's defense, averaging -0.062 EPA/play allowed, suppresses South Alabama's offense while Blake Baker exploits the Jaguars' 0.187 defensive EPA/play allowed.
Resting Money- South Alabama is thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it on two of three measures; book_levels are tied 3-3. Backing South Alabama Jaguars, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Book-level count does not corroborate the read: South Alabama and Louisiana Tech are tied 3-3.
- Game total over 57.5−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
2 modelsTempo Gap, D1 WinnerWhy 2 models like it
Tempo Gap- Fair total 60.7, a 3.2-point gap above DraftKings' 57.5.
- 11.8 expected drives per team; season averages are 70.3 Louisiana Tech plays and 75.1 South Alabama plays.
- South Alabama's expected QB Jared Hollins replaces injured Bishop Davenport; the Sun Belt has no official availability feed here.
D1 Winner- Efficiency family: both offenses average above +0.09 EPA/play; South Alabama's defense allows +0.187 EPA/play.
- QB/injury family: Blake Baker is the expected Louisiana Tech starter with 800 yards, 10 total TDs and no turnovers; Jared Hollins is expected for South Alabama.
- Dylone Brooks is reported out for Louisiana Tech; the report is not an official Sun Belt designation and could reduce Bulldogs explosiveness.
- Over 58.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
NCAAF Trend & Market Flow QuantDown 36% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 66.7% over rate (12-18) in South Alabama home totals across 2023-25 DK history.
- Total moved from 57.5 to 58.5, a full-point upward pregame move.
- 2026 net EPA/play differential is +0.1404: Louisiana Tech +0.1554, South Alabama +0.0150.
- The 12-18 home-over trend is historical and not opponent- or line-specific.
- Over 58 total−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season-to-date averages imply about 145 combined plays per game (70.3 Louisiana Tech, 75.1 South Alabama).
- Offensive points per drive average 2.62 for Louisiana Tech and 2.90 for South Alabama across seven games each.
- Most likely loss: either offense repeats its recent low points-per-drive outings and the game finishes at 58 or fewer.
Show all 19 picks
- Louisiana Tech −7.5+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi
Saturday RungUp 71% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's -6 anchor devigs to 51.7% Louisiana Tech cover probability at the sharp main number.
- Recent five-game scoring margins favor Louisiana Tech +7.2 versus South Alabama -0.4, reweighting the model to about 48%.
- The rung has substantial activity: 14,576 lifetime contracts, 4,657 in 24 hours, and a one-cent 43¢/44¢ market.
- A roughly four-point model edge is modest relative to a 16-point college-football margin standard deviation.
- South Alabama Jaguars +6−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Grade 72/100 (B): team-market gate passes; no player-prop exact-line gate applies.
- South Alabama is 5-2 score-derived against +6 across 2026 games; Louisiana Tech is 3-4 at -6.
- Normal margin tail: venue-shrunk mean -2.0, pooled SD 26.6, estimates 56% to cover +6.
- Only seven current-season games per team; opponent quality and matchup translation are uncertain.
- South Alabama Jaguars 1st-half winner−100%Lost
Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- South Alabama averaged +0.224 offensive EPA/play over its last five; Louisiana Tech averaged +0.127.
- Matchup EPA favors South Alabama: +0.250 offense-versus-LT-defense versus -0.119 for LT versus South Alabama defense.
- South Alabama held the recent explosive-rate edge, 13.4% to 11.8%, supporting early-script chunk-play upside.
- Louisiana Tech's recent +10.1% PROE signals an aggressive opening script, and Blake Baker is the expected starter.
- Louisiana Tech Bulldogs −7+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Across the ladder, Louisiana Tech has $3,750 depth versus South Alabama's $3,500: the backed side is deeper (1.071 ratio).
- Louisiana Tech has 3 book_levels versus South Alabama's 2, so all three order-flow measures agree; raw stakes are substantial, not a handful of dollars.
- Directional coherence check: backing Louisiana Tech -7, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. ProphetX quote is +110 (47.62¢ claim price).
- This is entirely ProphetX self-reference; no independent sharp-book projection is being used as the primary bar.
- South Alabama Jaguars spread +6.5−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on FanDuel
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- South Alabama offense averages 0.202 EPA/play and 2.90 points/drive; Louisiana Tech defense allows 0.187 EPA/play over seven games.
- Own cover probability is 57.0% versus approximately 49.8% sharp-market fair probability at the six-point reference.
- Louisiana Tech is 5-2 with an 11.3-point average scoring margin over its last seven and owns the stronger PFF defense.
- South Alabama Jaguars spread +3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- CFB historical exact 3-point margin: 955 of 10,371 games, or 9.208%.
- The 9.208% mass is all-CFB historical data, not a matchup-specific margin model.
- South Alabama +6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX's own board quotes Louisiana Tech -215 on the moneyline but only -6.5 at +101, an unusually weak spread relative to its ML.
- ESPN's pregame projection is Louisiana Tech by 3.84, leaving 2.66 points of cushion against +6.5.
- Louisiana Tech's six-game FBS profile has -0.002 defensive EPA allowed per play versus South Alabama's +0.257, a material directional threat.
- Louisiana Tech Bulldogs first-half spread over 7.5+203%Won
Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle’s full-game Louisiana Tech -6 supplies a roughly +3.0 first-half anchor; my matchup blend projects +3.25.
- 2026 season-to-date: Louisiana Tech posts +0.093 offensive EPA/play and -0.062 defensive EPA/play allowed; South Alabama allows +0.187 defensive EPA/play.
- DERIVED REFERENCE at the exact 7.5 rung, 1,986 completed 2025, 26 CFB finals give SD 15.71; square-root half-possession scaling gives 11.11, producing about 35% for over 7.5.
- First-half dispersion is derived from full-game winner-margin data, not an observed first-half sample; possession independence is an assumption.
- South Alabama Jaguars +6.5−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on FanDuel
RnjDown 65% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- FPI matchup projection makes Louisiana Tech a 3.837-point favorite; +6.5 creates a 2.663-point margin edge.
- Six current-season FBS games per team were used; Northwestern State and SE Louisiana were excluded as FCS opponents.
- South Alabama leads season FBS samples in success rate (45.7%), explosive rate (13.9%), and points per drive (2.82 vs 2.19).
- Louisiana Tech's defense has the stronger EPA profile (-0.002 allowed/play versus South Alabama's +0.257) and has posted back-to-back shutouts.
- Game over 28.5 first-half points+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle full-game 58.0 at 11:22 (-107/-109); no independent sharp 1H line.
- Seven-game data: 145.4 combined plays/game, 23.7 drives/game, 6.01 plays/drive; 8% stoppage haircut yields 11.1 first-half drives.
- Raw Kalshi yes_ask 0.51 is fraction regime, converted to 51 cents; 1-cent spread and 75.83 contracts traded.
- Direct 32.2-point model versus 28.6 derived reference leaves a 3.6-point model spread; this is a LEAN, not a table-banger.
- Game total under 58.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- under 58.5 wins at exactly 58; whole under 58 pushes at exactly 58.
- 2.574% of completed 2014, 2026 NCAAF games landed on exactly 58 points.
- The 2.574% figure is league-wide historical mass, not a matchup-specific scoring model.
- Total points over 58.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season scoring averages are 32.3 for Louisiana Tech and 35.1 for South Alabama, supporting the venue-market discrepancy.
- Most likely loss: Louisiana Tech's defense repeats its recent shutouts and holds South Alabama below 26.5 points.
- Total Points over 57.5−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The teams average 67.43 combined points; offensive EPA/play is +0.093 for Louisiana Tech and +0.202 for South Alabama, while South Alabama allows +0.187 defensive EPA/play.
- Personnel gate cleared: Blake Baker and Jared Hollins led their teams' latest pass attempts; Baker is named in the official preview and Hollins is projected on the Oct. 31 depth chart.
- Most likely loss: Louisiana Tech's strong -0.062 defensive EPA/play and South Alabama's slower 23.92-second pace hold the Jaguars below 27 points, leaving the game under 58.
Win chance, start to finish
50%USALTKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Louisiana Tech vs. South Alabama?
The Louisiana Tech won 35–20 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.