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Harvard vs. DartmouthFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMemorial Field (Dartmouth)
Harvard6–0
14–24Final
Dartmouth3–3
Score by period
Team1234T
HARV0140014
DART7140324

Top model pick, graded

Won

Dartmouth Big Green spread +9 49¢

Why House Rules likes it: Historical NCAAF 2014-25: absolute margin 9 occurred 115 of 10,371 completed games, an explicit 1.109% push probability.

House RulesDown 3% this season · 1401 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 4-7 on this game · +9% return

  1. Harvard Crimson −9.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    3 modelsD1 Winner, Picks With Pink Grading System +1
    Why 3 models like it
    D1 Winner
    • Harvard leads recent EPA/play 0.1426 to 0.1198, defensive EPA allowed -0.0843 to 0.1141, and success rate 49.7% to 44.7%.
    • Expected QB production favors Harvard: Charlie Smith is 72.3% complete with 12 TD and 4 INT; Grayson Saunier is 54.3% with 5 TD and 2 INT.
    • Both depth charts are expected rather than official; FCS teams have no official injury feed here, and the game-specific X signal returned no reports.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • 4 of Harvard's last 6 margins exceeded 9.5; margins were +28, +23, +12, +3, +4, +24.
    • Harvard leads recent EPA/play 0.1426 to 0.1198 and success rate 49.7% to 44.7%.
    • Harvard's two non-cover margins were +3 and +4; a close Dartmouth home game beats this number.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • Harvard defense allowed -0.0843 EPA/play versus Dartmouth's +0.1141; team grades favor Harvard 91.4 to 83.0.
    • The 9.5-point rung is the best-supported balance of price and protection; PM US had it quoted at 2:48 PM PDT.
    • Both lineups are expected, not confirmed; FCS has no official availability feed, so late scratches are unresolved.
  2. 2-leg parlay
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −159

    Short YardageUp 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tulane -350 implies 77.8%; model 82.5% (+4.7 points).
    • Tulane's 7-game offense EPA/play is +0.014 versus Charlotte's -0.140; defense allowed EPA/play is +0.127 versus +0.296.
    • Harvard -375 implies 78.9%; model 86.0% (+7.1 points).
    • Tulane's freshman Trace Johnson is listed as the Oct. 30 game-notes quarterback, but Tulane has rotated quarterbacks this season.
  3. Harvard Crimson to winFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −370 on Fliff

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Harvard is 6-0; Dartmouth is 3-3, with recent scoring-margin form of +15.7 versus +0.3.
    • Last-five EPA: Harvard offense +0.1895/play and defense -0.0208 allowed; Dartmouth +0.0982 and +0.0759.
    • Season success rate is 49.7% Harvard versus 44.7% Dartmouth; points per drive are 2.46 versus 2.21.
    • The lineup lookup is expected rather than official, and FCS injury reporting is not covered; a late quarterback scratch would materially change the thesis.
  4. Harvard Crimson spread −10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Harvard is 6-0 with a +14.0 L5 scoring margin; Dartmouth is 3-2 with only +1.2.
    • Harvard: +0.143 offensive EPA/play and -0.084 defensive EPA allowed; Dartmouth: +0.120 and +0.114.
    • Harvard leads success rate 49.7% to 44.7% and team grade 91.4 to 83.0.
    • Both quarterback assignments are expected rather than officially confirmed; the FCS feed has no current injury report.
  5. Dartmouth Big Green spread +9
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Historical NCAAF 2014-25: absolute margin 9 occurred 115 of 10,371 completed games, an explicit 1.109% push probability.
    • ProphetX quotes Dartmouth +9 at +105 (48.78¢) versus +9.5 at -115 (53.49¢): a 4.71¢ rung gap against only 1.109% exact-margin mass.
    • FanDuel independently posted Dartmouth +9.5 at -110, confirming the adjacent half-point market is live.
    • The 1.109% figure is unconditional NCAAF history, not a Harvard-Dartmouth matchup-specific margin model.
  6. Game total under 44.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The same ladder prices the harder under-44 rung far above the easier under-44.5 rung, a direct non-flat density inconsistency.
    • Exact 44 occurred 288 times in the empirical CFB sample; the half-point captures that key-area mass instead of losing at 44.
    • Harvard allows -0.0843 defensive EPA/play; Dartmouth allows +0.1141, but the matchup blend projects in the low 40s.
    • Most likely loss: Harvard's +0.1426 offensive EPA/play exploits Dartmouth's defense and pushes the game to 45 or more.
Show all 9 picks
  1. Harvard Crimson over 44.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −104 on FanDuel

    Short WeekDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fair total 48.0, roughly 3.5 points above the live 44.5.
    • Harvard leads with +0.143 offensive EPA/play and 49.7% success; Dartmouth is +0.120 EPA/play.
    • Dartmouth allows +0.114 defensive EPA/play, while both teams average at least 63 plays.
    • Northwest wind around 10 mph with gusts near 20 and a forecast low near 34 can suppress passing.
  2. Dartmouth Big Green first-half winnerLong shot
    +285%Won

    Taken at 26¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • six-game scoring blend gives Harvard 25.3 and Dartmouth 17.6 expected full-game points; first-half mean ≈ Harvard +3.8.
    • Pooled 2,901-game 2024, 26 college margin SD is 15.4; square-root half scaling gives first-half SD ≈10.9, not 7.7.
    • At mean +3.8 and SD 10.9, Dartmouth leads at halftime about 33%; raw Kalshi 0.28 is a fraction, converted to 28¢.
    • QB listings are expected, not confirmed; Smith and Saunier pass the plurality and live-preview gate, but late changes matter.
  3. Dartmouth Big Green to winLong shot
    +317%Won

    Taken at 24¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; NO REFERENCE, Harvard's SRS is -19.8 versus Dartmouth's -25.1, only a 5.3-point neutral-field gap.
    • Dartmouth is home; that narrows the rating gap further than the market's Harvard -9.5 main spread implies.
    • Harvard's recent wins included only +3 over Colgate and +4 over Brown; Dartmouth's recent losses were -3 and -4.
    • Harvard is 6-0 with a +15.7 recent scoring-margin signal; its current form can overwhelm the older rating gap.

Win chance, start to finish

50%DARTHARVKickoff
Oct 30Final

Questions

Who won Harvard vs. Dartmouth?

The Dartmouth won 24–14 on Friday, Oct 30, 2026.

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